From Classification Accuracy to Proper Scoring Rules: Elicitability of Probabilistic Top List Predictions

In the face of uncertainty, the need for probabilistic assessments has long been recognized in the literature on forecasting. In classification, however, comparative evaluation of classifiers often focuses on predictions specifying a single class through the use of simple accuracy measures, which disregard any probabilistic uncertainty quantification. I propose probabilistic top lists as a novel type of prediction in classification, which bridges the gap between single-class predictions and predictive distributions. The probabilistic top list functional is elicitable through the use of strictly consistent evaluation metrics. The proposed evaluation metrics are based on symmetric proper scoring rules and admit comparison of various types of predictions ranging from single-class point predictions to fully specified predictive distributions. The Brier score yields a metric that is particularly well suited for this kind of comparison

Model Diagnostics meets Forecast Evaluation: Goodness-of-Fit, Calibration, and Related Topics

Principled forecast evaluation and model diagnostics are vital in fitting probabilistic models and forecasting outcomes of interest. A common principle is that fitted or predicted distributions ought to be calibrated, ideally in the sense that the outcome is indistinguishable from a random draw from the posited distribution. Much of this thesis is centered on calibration properties of various types of forecasts. In the first part of the thesis, a simple algorithm for exact multinomial goodness-of-fit tests is proposed. The algorithm computes exact $p$-values based on various test statistics, such as the log-likelihood ratio and Pearson\u27s chi-square. A thorough analysis shows improvement on extant methods. However, the runtime of the algorithm grows exponentially in the number of categories and hence its use is limited. In the second part, a framework rooted in probability theory is developed, which gives rise to hierarchies of calibration, and applies to both predictive distributions and stand-alone point forecasts. Based on a general notion of conditional T-calibration, the thesis introduces population versions of T-reliability diagrams and revisits a score decomposition into measures of miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty. Stable and efficient estimators of T-reliability diagrams and score components arise via nonparametric isotonic regression and the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm. For in-sample model diagnostics, a universal coefficient of determination is introduced that nests and reinterprets the classical $R^2$ in least squares regression. In the third part, probabilistic top lists are proposed as a novel type of prediction in classification, which bridges the gap between single-class predictions and predictive distributions. The probabilistic top list functional is elicited by strictly consistent evaluation metrics, based on symmetric proper scoring rules, which admit comparison of various types of predictions

A Simple Algorithm for Exact Multinomial Tests

This work proposes a new method for computing acceptance regions of exact multinomial tests. From this an algorithm is derived, which finds exact p-values for tests of simple multinomial hypotheses. Using concepts from discrete convex analysis, the method is proven to be exact for various popular test statistics, including Pearson's chi-square and the log-likelihood ratio. The proposed algorithm improves greatly on the naive approach using full enumeration of the sample space. However, its use is limited to multinomial distributions with a small number of categories, as the runtime grows exponentially in the number of possible outcomes. The method is applied in a simulation study and uses of multinomial tests in forecast evaluation are outlined. Additionally, properties of a test statistic using probability ordering, referred to as the "exact multinomial test" by some authors, are investigated and discussed. The algorithm is implemented in the accompanying R package ExactMultinom.Comment: 27 page

A Simple Algorithm for Exact Multinomial Tests

This work proposes a new method for computing acceptance regions of exact multinomial tests. From this an algorithm is derived, which finds exact p-values for tests of simple multinomial hypotheses. Using concepts from discrete convex analysis, the method is proven to be exact for various popular test statistics, including Pearson’s Chi-square and the log-likelihood ratio. The proposed algorithm improves greatly on the naive approach using full enumeration of the sample space. However, its use is limited to multinomial distributions with a small number of categories, as the runtime grows exponentially in the number of possible outcomes. The method is applied in a simulation study, and uses of multinomial tests in forecast evaluation are outlined. Additionally, properties of a test statistic using probability ordering, referred to as the “exact multinomial test” by some authors, are investigated and discussed. The algorithm is implemented in the accompanying R package ExactMultinom. Supplementary materials for this article are available online

Synthesis and Characterization of 1-(4-Choro Phenyl )-3-(Pyrimidin -2-yl) Thiourea and its Complexes with Cobalt(II) , Nickel(II), and Copper(II)

The new 1-(4-chloro phenyl )-3-(pyrimidin -2-yl) thiourea was synthesized from the condensation reaction of 2- amino pyrimidin with p-chlorophenyl isothiocyanate. The complexes were prepared from the reaction of the metal chloride with the ligand. The ligand  and its metal complexes were characterized by spectroscopic methods (FTIR , UV-Vis , 1H-NMR , A.A) , magnetic measurements , conductance and melting point. These studies revealed square planar geometries for the Co(II), Ni(II) and Cu(II) complexes. Keywords: 2- amino pyrimidin; p-chlorophenyl isothiocyanate and thiourea complexes.

An efficient RAN slicing strategy for a heterogeneous network with eMBB and V2X services

Emerging 5G wireless technology will support services and use cases with vastly heterogeneous requirements. Network slicing, which allows composing multiple dedicated logical networks with specific functionality running on top of a common infrastructure, is introduced as a solution to cope with this heterogeneity. At the radio access network (RAN), the use of network slicing involves the assignment of radio resources to each slice in accordance with its expected requirements and functionalities. Therefore, RAN slicing will provide the required design flexibility and will be necessary for any network slicing solution. This paper investigates the RAN slicing problem for providing two generic services of 5G, namely enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) and vehicle-to-everything (V2X). In this respect, we propose an efficient RAN slicing scheme based on an off-line reinforcement learning followed by a low-complexity heuristic algorithm, which allocates radio resources to different slices with the target of maximizing the resource utilization while ensuring the availability of resources to fulfill the requirements of the traffic of each RAN slice. A simulation-based analysis is presented to assess the performance of the proposed solution. The simulation results have shown that the proposed algorithm improves the network performance in terms of resource utilization, the latency of V2X services, achievable data rate, and outage probability.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Desenvolvimento do prototipo de uma maquina desoperculadora de favos de mel

Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Centro TecnologicoO presente trabalho trata do desenvolvimento, construção e teste do protótipo de uma máquina desoperculadora de favos de mel, adequada às características e porte da apicultura Brasileira atual. Na fase inicial do trabalho foi executado um levantamento do estado da arte do equipamento para desorperculação, com o objetivo de identificar e analisar diferentes concepções de máquinas e os respectivos parâmetros, e assim formar uma base para o dimensionamento e projeto de desoperculadoras de favos de mel. Com base neste estudo e na constatação da inexistência da máquina para função no mercado interno, foi desenvolvido um protótipo para atender o atual estágio de grande parte da atividade apícola Brasileira. No trabalho, além do desenvolvimento da concepção têm-se, também, descritas a fase de projeto detalhado, a construção do protótipo e os testes de desempenho com os resultados obtidos

Estágio curricular obrigatório na área de bovinocultura de leite

TCC(graduação) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina. Campus Curitibanos. Medicina Veterinária.O estágio curricular obrigatório é importante no desenvolvimento profissional dos acadêmicos, pois permite a vivência prática em diferentes campos de atuação da medicina veterinária. O Brasil está entre os cinco maiores produtores de leite do mundo, sendo assim, esta atividade requer de profissionais capacitados e com experiência prática, para que a atividade continue a crescer e se torne cada vez mais lucrativa. Desta forma, o objetivo do presente trabalho é trazer, de forma detalhada, as atividades realizadas e as experiências adquiridas ao longo do estágio na área de bovinocultura de leite. A primeira etapa foi na empresa Nutre, localizada no sudoeste do Paraná, que presta serviços médicos veterinários de assistência técnica, clínica, cirurgia e reprodução de bovinos leiteiros. Desta forma, acompanhou-se, na prática, atendimentos clínicos e cirúrgicos a campo, bem como conheceu-se diferentes sistemas de produção. A última parte foi na fazenda Leite Verde, no estado da Bahia. Lá pôde-se vivenciar a rotina de um grande sistema intensivo de produção a pasto. Todo o manejo da propriedade e das diferentes categorias animais foi acompanhado, entre eles, pode-se destacar o manejo sanitário, reprodutivo, nutricional e de ordenha. Assim, ambos os locais se complementaram e trouxeram visões diferentes da atividade leiteira, sendo uma voltada a pequenas propriedades com predomínio da mão-de-obra familiar e outra caracterizada por um sistema tecnificado e intensivo de produção. Muitas experiências foram adquiridas ao longo destas 632 horas e certamente contribuíram para o crescimento profissional e pessoal do acadêmico, que, mais tarde, poderá estar a campo repassando tais conhecimentos