Submesoscale dispersion in the vicinity of the Deepwater Horizon spill

Reliable forecasts for the dispersion of oceanic contamination are important for coastal ecosystems, society and the economy as evidenced by the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 and the Fukushima nuclear plant incident in the Pacific Ocean in 2011. Accurate prediction of pollutant pathways and concentrations at the ocean surface requires understanding ocean dynamics over a broad range of spatial scales. Fundamental questions concerning the structure of the velocity field at the submesoscales (100 meters to tens of kilometers, hours to days) remain unresolved due to a lack of synoptic measurements at these scales. \textcolor{black} {Using high-frequency position data provided by the near-simultaneous release of hundreds of accurately tracked surface drifters, we study the structure of submesoscale surface velocity fluctuations in the Northern Gulf Mexico. Observed two-point statistics confirm the accuracy of classic turbulence scaling laws at 200m$-$50km scales and clearly indicate that dispersion at the submesoscales is \textit{local}, driven predominantly by energetic submesoscale fluctuations.} The results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of deploying large clusters of drifting instruments to provide synoptic observations of spatial variability of the ocean surface velocity field. Our findings allow quantification of the submesoscale-driven dispersion missing in current operational circulation models and satellite altimeter-derived velocity fields.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure

Tuberculosis mortality and the male survival deficit in rural South Africa:An observational community cohort study

BACKGROUND: Women live on average five years longer than men, and the sex difference in longevity is typically lower in populations with high mortality. South Africa-a high mortality population with a large sex disparity-is an exception, but the causes of death that contribute to this difference are not well understood. METHODS: Using data from a demographic surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal (2000-2014), we estimate differences between male and female adult life expectancy by HIV status. The contribution of causes of death to these life expectancy differences are computed with demographic decomposition techniques. Cause of death information comes from verbal autopsy interviews that are interpreted with the InSilicoVA tool. RESULTS: Adult women lived an average of 10.4 years (95% confidence Interval 9.0-11.6) longer than men. Sex differences in adult life expectancy were even larger when disaggregated by HIV status: 13.1 (95% confidence interval 10.7-15.3) and 11.2 (95% confidence interval 7.5-14.8) years among known HIV negatives and positives, respectively. Elevated male mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and external injuries were responsible for 43% and 31% of the sex difference in life expectancy among the HIV negative population, and 81% and 16% of the difference among people living with HIV. CONCLUSIONS: The sex differences in adult life expectancy in rural KwaZulu-Natal are exceptionally large, atypical for an African population, and largely driven by high male mortality from pulmonary TB and injuries. This is the case for both HIV positive and HIV negative men and women, signalling a need to improve the engagement of men with health services, irrespective of their HIV status

The Impact of HIV, an Antiretroviral Programme and Tuberculosis on Mortality in South African Platinum Miners, 1992–2010

HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are the most common causes of death in South Africa. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes should have had an impact on mortality rates. This study describes the impact of HIV, a Wellness (HIV/ART) programme and TB on population-wide trends in mortality and causes of death among South African platinum miners, from before the HIV epidemic into the ART era

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Transmission in a Cohort of HIV-1 Concordant Heterosexual Couples from Dakar, Senegal

BACKGROUND: A large number of HIV-1 infections in Africa occur in married couples. The predominant direction of intracouple transmission and the principal external origins of infection remain important issues of debate. METHODS: We investigated HIV-1 transmission in 46 HIV-1 concordant positive couples from Dakar, Senegal. Intracouple transmission was confirmed by maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis and pairwise distance comparisons of HIV-1 env gp41 sequences from both partners. Standardized interview data were used to deduce the direction as well as the external sources of the intracouple transmissions. RESULTS: Conservative molecular analyses showed linked viruses in 34 (74%) couples, unlinked viruses in 6 (13%) couples, and indeterminate results for 6 (13%) couples. The interview data corresponded completely with the molecular analyses: all linked couples reported internal transmission and all unlinked couples reported external sources of infection. The majority of linked couples (93%) reported the husband as internal source of infection. These husbands most frequently (82%) reported an occasional sexual relationship as external source of infection. Pairwise comparisons of the CD4 count, antiretroviral therapy status, and the proportion of gp41 ambiguous base pairs within transmission pairs correlated with the reported order of infection events. CONCLUSIONS: In this suburban Senegalese population, a majority of HIV-1 concordant couples showed linked HIV-1 transmission with the husband as likely index partner. Our data emphasize the risk of married women for acquiring HIV-1 as a result of the occasional sexual relationships of their husbands

What explains gender inequalities in HIV/AIDS prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from the demographic and health surveys

Abstract Background Women are disproportionally affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The determinants of gender inequality in HIV/AIDS may vary across countries and require country-specific interventions to address them. This study aimed to identify the socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics underlying gender inequalities in HIV/AIDS in 21 SSA countries. Methods We applied an extension of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition approach to data from Demographic and Health Surveys and AIDS Indicator Surveys to quantify the differences in HIV/AIDS prevalence between women and men attributable to socio-demographic factors, sexual behaviours, and awareness of HIV/AIDS. We decomposed gender inequalities into two components: the percentage attributable to different levels of the risk factors between women and men (the “composition effect”) and the percentage attributable to risk factors having differential effects on HIV/AIDS prevalence in women and men (the “response effect”). Results Descriptive analyses showed that the difference between women and men in HIV/AIDS prevalence varied from a low of 0.68 % (P = 0.008) in Liberia to a high of 11.5 % (P < 0.001) in Swaziland. The decomposition analysis showed that 84 % (P < 0.001) and 92 % (P < 0.001) of the higher prevalence of HIV/AIDS among women in Uganda and Ghana, respectively, was explained by the different distributions of HIV/AIDS risk factors, particularly age at first sex between women and men. In the majority of countries, however, observed gender inequalities in HIV/AIDS were chiefly explained by differences in the responses to risk factors; the differential effects of age, marital status and occupation on prevalence of HIV/AIDS for women and men were among the significant contributors to this component. In Cameroon, Guinea, Malawi and Swaziland, a combination of the composition and response effects explained gender inequalities in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Conclusions The factors that explain gender inequality in HIV/AIDS in SSA vary by country, suggesting that country-specific interventions are needed. Unmeasured factors also contributed substantially to the difference in HIV/AIDS prevalence between women and men, highlighting the need for further study

The Development and Validation of the Empathy Components Questionnaire (ECQ)

Key research suggests that empathy is a multidimensional construct comprising of both cognitive and affective components. More recent theories and research suggest even further factors within these components of empathy, including the ability to empathize with others versus the drive towards empathizing with others. While numerous self-report measures have been developed to examine empathy, none of them currently index all of these wider components together. The aim of the present research was to develop and validate the Empathy Components Questionnaire (ECQ) to measure cognitive and affective components, as well as ability and drive components within each. Study one utilized items measuring cognitive and affective empathy taken from various established questionnaires to create an initial version of the ECQ. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to examine the underlying components of empathy within the ECQ in a sample of 101 typical adults. Results revealed a five-component model consisting of cognitive ability, cognitive drive, affective ability, affective drive, and a fifth factor assessing affective reactivity. This five-component structure was then validated and confirmed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) in an independent sample of 211 typical adults. Results also showed that females scored higher than males overall on the ECQ, and on specific components, which is consistent with previous findings of a female advantage on self-reported empathy. Findings also showed certain components predicted scores on an independent measure of social behavior, which provided good convergent validity of the ECQ. Together, these findings validate the newly developed ECQ as a multidimensional measure of empathy more in-line with current theories of empathy. The ECQ provides a useful new tool for quick and easy measurement of empathy and its components for research with both healthy and clinical populations

Age patterns of under-five mortality in sub-Saharan Africa during 1990-2018: a comparison of estimates from demographic surveillance with full birth histories and the historic record

BACKGROUND: In Sub-Saharan African countries which often lack high-quality vital registration data, estimates of under-five mortality (U5M) rely heavily on full birth histories (FBHs) collected in surveys and model age patterns of mortality calibrated against vital statistics from other populations. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) are al-ternate sources of population-based data in much of sub-Saharan Africa, which are less formally utilized in estimation. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to compare the age pattern of U5M in African HDSS with FBHs from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), the Human Mortality Database (HMD), and model age patterns. METHODS: We examined the relative levels of neonatal, post neonatal, infant, and child mortality across data sources. We directly compared estimates for DHS and MICS subnational regions with HDSS, and used OLS regression to identify data attributes that correlated with the disparity between estimates. RESULTSH: DSS and FBH data suggests that African populations have higher levels of child mortality and lower infant mortality than the historic record. This age pattern is most explicit for Western African populations, but also characterizes data for other sub regions. The comparison between HDSS and FBH suggests that FBH child mortality is biased downward. The comparison is less conclusive for neonatal and infant mortality. CONTRIBUTION: This study questions the practice of using model age patterns derived from largely high-income settings for inferring or correcting U5M estimates for African populations. It also highlights the considerable uncertainty around the consistency of HDSS and FBH estimates of U5M

HIV status awareness, partnership dissolution and HIV transmission in generalized epidemics.

OBJECTIVES: HIV status aware couples with at least one HIV positive partner are characterized by high separation and divorce rates. This phenomenon is often described as a corollary of couples HIV Testing and Counseling (HTC) that ought to be minimized. In this contribution, we demonstrate the implications of partnership dissolution in serodiscordant couples for the propagation of HIV. METHODS: We develop a compartmental model to study epidemic outcomes of elevated partnership dissolution rates in serodiscordant couples and parameterize it with estimates from population-based data (Rakai, Uganda). RESULTS: Via its effect on partnership dissolution, every percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence in monogamous populations by 0.27 percent for women and 0.63 percent for men. These effects are even larger when the assumption of monogamy can be relaxed, but are moderated by other behavior changes (e.g., increased condom use) in HIV status aware serodiscordant partnerships. When these behavior changes are taken into account, each percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence by 0.13 and 0.32 percent for women and men, respectively (assuming monogamy). The partnership dissolution effect exists because it decreases the fraction of serodiscordant couples in the population and prolongs the time that individuals spend outside partnerships. CONCLUSION: Our model predicts that elevated partnership dissolution rates in HIV status aware serodiscordant couples reduce the spread of HIV. As a consequence, the full impact of couples HTC for HIV prevention is probably larger than recognized to date. Particularly high partnership dissolution rates in female positive serodiscordant couples contribute to the gender imbalance in HIV infections