Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%‐quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature‐only models and in all‐predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature‐only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter‐specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.202

Neurofilament light compared to neuron-specific enolase as a predictor of unfavourable outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

Aim: We compared the prognostic abilities of neurofilament light (NfL) and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) in patients resuscitated from out-ofhospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) of various aetiologies. Methods: We analysed frozen blood samples obtained at 24 and 48 hours from OHCA patients treated in 21 Finnish intensive care units in 2010 and 2011. We defined unfavourable outcome as Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) 3-5 at 12 months after OHCA. We evaluated the prognostic ability of the biomarkers by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs [95% confidence intervals]) and compared these with a bootstrap method. Results: Out of 248 adult patients, 12-month outcome was unfavourable in 120 (48.4%). The median (interquartile range) NfL concentrations for patients with unfavourable and those with favourable outcome, respectively, were 689 (146-1804) pg/mL vs. 31 (17-61) pg/mL at 24 h and 1162 (147-4360) pg/mL vs. 36 (21-87) pg/mL at 48 h, p < 0.001 for both. The corresponding NSE concentrations were 13.3 (7.2-27.3) mg/L vs. 8.5 (5.8- 13.2) mg/L at 24 h and 20.4 (8.1-56.6) mg/L vs. 8.2 (5.9-12.1) mg/L at 48 h, p < 0.001 for both. The AUROCs to predict an unfavourable outcome were 0.90 (0.86-0.94) for NfL vs. 0.65 (0.58-0.72) for NSE at 24 h, p < 0.001 and 0.88 (0.83-0.93) for NfL and 0.73 (0.66-0.81) for NSE at 48 h, p < 0.001. Conclusion: Compared to NSE, NfL demonstrated superior accuracy in predicting long-term unfavourable outcome after OHCA.Peer reviewe

Posttraumatic epilepsy in intensive care unit-treated pediatric traumatic brain injury patients

publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Predictors of hospital and one-year mortality in intensive care patients with refractory status epilepticus: a populationbased study

Background: The aim was to determine predictors of hospital and 1-year mortality in patients with intensive care unit (ICU)-treated refractory status epilepticus (RSE) in a population-based study.Methods: This was a retrospective study of the Finnish Intensive Care Consortium (FICC) database of adult patients (16 years of age or older) with ICU-treated RSE in Finland during a 3-year period (2010-2012). The database consists of admissions to all 20 Finnish hospitals treating RSE in the ICU. All five university hospitals and 11 out of 15 central hospitals participated in the present study. The total adult referral population in the study hospitals was 3.92 million, representing 91% of the adult population of Finland. Patients whose condition had a post-anoxic aetiological basis were excluded.Results: We identified 395 patients with ICU-treated RSE, corresponding to an annual incidence of 3.4/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.04-3.71). Hospital mortality was 7.4% (95% CI 0-16.9%), and 1-year mortality was 25. 4% (95% CI 21.2-29.8%). Mortality at hospital discharge was associated with severity of organ dysfunction. Mortality at 1 year was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.033, 95% CI 1.104-1.051, p = 0.001), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score (aOR 1.156, CI 1.051-1.271, p = 0.003), super-refractory status epilepticus (SRSE) (aOR 2.215, 95% CI 1.20-3.84, p = 0.010) and dependence in activities of daily living (ADL) (aOR 2.553, 95% CI 1.537-4.243, p < 0.0001).Conclusions: Despite low hospital mortality, 25% of ICU-treated RSE patients die within a year. Super-refractoriness, dependence in ADL functions, severity of organ dysfunction at ICU admission and older age predict long-term mortality

Costs, outcome and cost-effectiveness of neurocritical care: a multi-center observational study

Background: Neurocritical illness is a growing healthcare problem with profound socioeconomic effects. We assessed differences in healthcare costs and long-term outcome for different forms of neurocritical illnesses treated in the intensive care unit (ICU).Methods: We used the prospective Finnish Intensive Care Consortium database to identify all adult patients treated for traumatic brain injury (TBI), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) at university hospital ICUs in Finland during 2003-2013. Outcome variables were one-year mortality and permanent disability. Total healthcare costs included the index university hospital costs, rehabilitation hospital costs and social security costs up to one year. All costs were converted to euros based on the 2013 currency rate.Results: In total 7044 patients were included (44% with TBI, 13% with ICH, 27% with SAH, 16% with AIS). In comparison to TBI, ICH was associated with the highest risk of death and permanent disability (OR 2.6, 95% CI 2.1-3.2 and OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.1), followed by AIS (OR 1.9, 95% CI 15-23 and OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3-1.8) and SAH (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.5-2.1 and OR 0. 8, 95% CI 0.6-0.9), after adjusting for severity of illness. SAH was associated with the highest mean total costs ((sic)51,906) followed by ICH ((sic)47,661), TBI ((sic)43,916) and AIS ((sic)39222). Cost per independent survivor was lower for TBI ((sic)58,497) and SAH ((sic)96,369) compared to AIS ((sic)104,374) and ICH ((sic)178,071).Conclusion: Neurocritical illnesses are costly and resource-demanding diseases associated with poor outcomes. Intensive care of patients with TBI or SAH more commonly result in independent survivors and is associated with lower total treatments costs compared to ICH and AIS

Association of extracerebral organ failure with 1-year survival and healthcare-associated costs after cardiac arrest: an observational database study

BackgroundOrgan dysfunction is common after cardiac arrest and associated with worse short-term outcome, but its impact on long-term outcome and treatment costs is unknown.MethodsWe used nationwide registry data from the intensive care units (ICU) of the five Finnish university hospitals to evaluate the association of 24-h extracerebral Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (24h-EC-SOFA) score with 1-year survival and healthcare-associated costs after cardiac arrest. We included adult cardiac arrest patients treated in the participating ICUs between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2013. We acquired the confirmed date of death from the Finnish Population Register Centre database and gross 1-year healthcare-associated costs from the hospital billing records and the database of the Finnish Social Insurance Institution.ResultsA total of 5814 patients were included in the study, and 2401 were alive 1year after cardiac arrest. Median (interquartile range (IQR)) 24h-EC-SOFA score was 6 (5-8) in 1-year survivors and 7 (5-10) in non-survivors. In multivariate regression analysis, adjusting for age and prior independency in self-care, the 24h-EC-SOFA score had an odds ratio (OR) of 1.16 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.18) per point for 1-year mortality.Median (IQR) healthcare-associated costs in the year after cardiac arrest were Euro47,000 (Euro28,000-75,000) in 1-year survivors and Euro12,000 (Euro6600-25,000) in non-survivors. In a multivariate linear regression model adjusting for age and prior independency in self-care, an increase of one point in the 24h-EC-SOFA score was associated with an increase of Euro170 (95% CI Euro150-190) in the cost per day alive in the year after cardiac arrest. In the same model, an increase of one point in the 24h-EC-SOFA score was associated with an increase of Euro4400 (95% CI Euro3300-5500) in the total healthcare-associated costs in 1-year survivors.ConclusionsExtracerebral organ dysfunction is associated with long-term outcome and gross healthcare-associated costs of ICU-treated cardiac arrest patients. It should be considered when assessing interventions to improve outcomes and optimize the use of resources in these patients

Traumatic brain injury patient volume and mortality in neurosurgical intensive care units: a Finnish nationwide study

Background: Differences in outcomes after traumatic brain injury (TBI) between neurosurgical centers exist, although the reasons for this are not clear. Thus, our aim was to assess the association between the annual volume of TBI patients and mortality in neurosurgical intensive care units (NICUs).Methods: We collected data on all patients treated in the five Finnish university hospitals to examine all patients with TBI treated in NICUs in Finland from 2009 to 2012. We used a random effect logistic regression model to adjust for important prognostic factors to assess the independent effect of ICU volume on 6-month mortality. Subgroup analyses were performed for patients with severe TBI, moderate-to-severe TBI, and those who were undergoing mechanical ventilation or intracranial pressure monitoring.Results: Altogether 2,328 TBI patients were treated during the study period in five NICUs. The annual TBI patient volume ranged from 61 to 206 patients between the NICUs. Univariate analysis, showed no association between the NICUs' annual TBI patient volume and 6-month mortality (p = 0.063). The random effect model showed no independent association between the NICUs' annual TBI patient volume and 6-month mortality (OR = 1.000, 95% CI = 0.996-1.004, p = 0.876). None of the pre-defined subgroup analyses indicated any association between NICU volume and patient mortality (p > 0.05 for all).Discussion and Conclusion: We did not find any association between annual TBI patient volume and 6-month mortality in NICUs. These findings should be interpreted taking into account that we only included NICUs, which by international standards all treated high volumes of TBI patients, and that we were not able to study the effect of NICU volume on neurological outcome

Metabolite Profiling of Alzheimer's Disease Cerebrospinal Fluid

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive loss of cognitive functions. Today the diagnosis of AD relies on clinical evaluations and is only late in the disease. Biomarkers for early detection of the underlying neuropathological changes are still lacking and the biochemical pathways leading to the disease are still not completely understood. The aim of this study was to identify the metabolic changes resulting from the disease phenotype by a thorough and systematic metabolite profiling approach. For this purpose CSF samples from 79 AD patients and 51 healthy controls were analyzed by gas and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS and LC-MS/MS) in conjunction with univariate and multivariate statistical analyses. In total 343 different analytes have been identified. Significant changes in the metabolite profile of AD patients compared to healthy controls have been identified. Increased cortisol levels seemed to be related to the progression of AD and have been detected in more severe forms of AD. Increased cysteine associated with decreased uridine was the best paired combination to identify light AD (MMSE>22) with specificity and sensitivity above 75%. In this group of patients, sensitivity and specificity above 80% were obtained for several combinations of three to five metabolites, including cortisol and various amino acids, in addition to cysteine and uridine