Stabilization and Global Climate Policy

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).Academic and political debates over long-run climate policy often invoke “stabilization” of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but only rarely are non-CO2 greenhouse gases addressed explicitly. Even though the majority of short-term climate policies propose trading between gases on a global warming potential (GWP) basis, discussions of whether CO2 concentrations should be 450, 550, 650, or perhaps as much as 750 ppm leave unstated whether there should be no additional forcing from other GHGs beyond current levels or whether separate concentration targets should be established for each GHG. Here we use an integrated modeling framework to examine multi-gas stabilization in terms of temperature, economic costs, carbon uptake, and other important consequences. We show that there are significant differences in both costs and climate impacts between different "GWP equivalent" policies and demonstrate the importance of non-CO2 GHG reduction on timescales of up to several centuries.Sarofim was supported in part by a Martin Sustainability Fellowshi

Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape.

A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the 'colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine

Estimating the impact of city-wide Aedes aegypti population control: An observational study in Iquitos, Peru.

During the last 50 years, the geographic range of the mosquito Aedes aegypti has increased dramatically, in parallel with a sharp increase in the disease burden from the viruses it transmits, including Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. There is a growing consensus that vector control is essential to prevent Aedes-borne diseases, even as effective vaccines become available. What remains unclear is how effective vector control is across broad operational scales because the data and the analytical tools necessary to isolate the effect of vector-oriented interventions have not been available. We developed a statistical framework to model Ae. aegypti abundance over space and time and applied it to explore the impact of citywide vector control conducted by the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Iquitos, Peru, over a 12-year period. Citywide interventions involved multiple rounds of intradomicile insecticide space spray over large portions of urban Iquitos (up to 40% of all residences) in response to dengue outbreaks. Our model captured significant levels of spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal variation in Ae. aegypti abundance within and between years and across the city. We estimated the shape of the relationship between the coverage of neighborhood-level vector control and reductions in female Ae. aegypti abundance; i.e., the dose-response curve. The dose-response curve, with its associated uncertainties, can be used to gauge the necessary spraying effort required to achieve a desired effect and is a critical tool currently absent from vector control programs. We found that with complete neighborhood coverage MoH intra-domicile space spray would decrease Ae. aegypti abundance on average by 67% in the treated neighborhood. Our framework can be directly translated to other interventions in other locations with geolocated mosquito abundance data. Results from our analysis can be used to inform future vector-control applications in Ae. aegypti endemic areas globally

A Screen for Retrotransposed Imprinted Genes Reveals an Association between X Chromosome Homology and Maternal Germ-Line Methylation

Imprinted genes undergo epigenetic modifications during gametogenesis, which lead to transcriptional silencing of either the maternally or the paternally derived allele in the subsequent generation. Previous work has suggested an association between imprinting and the products of retrotransposition, but the nature of this link is not well defined. In the mouse, three imprinted genes have been described that originated by retrotransposition and overlap CpG islands which undergo methylation during oogenesis. Nap1l5, U2af1-rs1, and Inpp5f_v2 are likely to encode proteins and share two additional genetic properties: they are located within introns of host transcripts and are derived from parental genes on the X chromosome. Using these sequence features alone, we identified Mcts2, a novel candidate imprinted retrogene on mouse Chromosome 2. Mcts2 has been validated as imprinted by demonstrating that it is paternally expressed and undergoes promoter methylation during oogenesis. The orthologous human retrogenes NAP1L5, INPP5F_V2, and MCTS2 are also shown to be paternally expressed, thus delineating novel imprinted loci on human Chromosomes 4, 10, and 20. The striking correlation between imprinting and X chromosome provenance suggests that retrotransposed elements with homology to the X chromosome can be selectively targeted for methylation during mammalian oogenesis

Using Field Data to Assess Model Predictions of Surface and Ground Fuel Consumption by Wildfire in Coniferous Forests of California

Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire emissions however can be difficult due to inherent variability in fuel loads and consumption and a lack of field data of fuel consumption by wildfire. We compare a unique set of fuel data collected immediately before and after six wildfires in coniferous forests of California to fuel consumption predictions of the first-order fire effects model (FOFEM), based on two different available fuel characterizations. We found strong regional differences in the performance of different fuel characterizations, with FOFEM overestimating the fuel consumption to a greater extent in the Klamath Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada. Inaccurate fuel load inputs caused the largest differences between predicted and observed fuel consumption. Fuel classifications tended to overestimate duff load and underestimate litter load, leading to differences in predicted emissions for some pollutants. When considering total ground and surface fuels, modeled consumption was fairly accurate on average, although the range of error in estimates of plot level consumption was very large. These results highlight the importance of fuel load input to the accuracy of modeled fuel consumption and GHG emissions from wildfires in coniferous forests

Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations. METHODS: Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. RESULTS: Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation

On the Estimation of Solar Energetic Particle Injection Timing from Onset Times near Earth

We examine the accuracy of a common technique for estimating the start time of solar energetic particle injection based on a linear fit to the observed onset time versus 1/(particle velocity). This is based on a concept that the first arriving particles move directly along the magnetic field with no scattering. We check this by performing numerical simulations of the transport of solar protons between 2 and 2000 MeV from the Sun to the Earth, for several assumptions regarding interplanetary scattering and the duration of particle injection, and analyzing the results using the inverse velocity fit. We find that in most cases, the onset times align close to a straight line as a function of inverse velocity. Despite this, the estimated injection time can be in error by several minutes. Also, the estimated path length can deviate greatly from the actual path length along the interplanetary magnetic field. The major difference between the estimated and actual path lengths implies that the first arriving particles cannot be viewed as moving directly along the interplanetary magnetic field.Comment: 19 pages, 3 Postscript figures. Astrophys. J., in pres

Redundant Canonical and Noncanonical Caenorhabditis elegans p21-Activated Kinase Signaling Governs Distal Tip Cell Migrations

p21-activated kinases (Paks) are prominent mediators of Rac/Cdc42-dependent and -independent signaling and regulate signal transduction and cytoskeletal-based cell movements. We used the reproducible migrations of the Caenorhabditis elegans gonadal distal tip cells to show that two of the three nematode Pak proteins, MAX-2 and PAK-1, function redundantly in regulation of cell migration but are regulated by very different mechanisms. First, we suggest that MAX-2 requires CED-10/Rac function and thus functions canonically. Second, PIX-1 and GIT-1 function in the same role as PAK-1, and PAK-1 interaction with PIX-1 is required for PAK-1 activity; thus, PAK-1 functions noncanonically. The human Pak-Pix-Git complex is central to noncanonical Pak signaling and requires only modest Rac/CDC-42 input. Unlike the human complex, our results suggest that the C. elegans Pak-Pix-Git complex requires PAK-1 kinase domain activity. This study delineates signaling network relationships in this cell migration model, thus providing potential further mechanistic insights and an assessment of total Pak contribution to cell migration events