Bayesian Demographic Modeling and Forecasting: An Application to U.S. Mortality

We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar development of adjacent age groups is assured allowing for consistent forecasts. We develop an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate the parameters and the latent variables in an efficient one-step procedure. Via the Bayesian approach we are able to asses uncertainty intuitively by constructing error bands for the forecasts. We observe that in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts. This implies that hitherto existing forecasting methods, which ignore certain sources of uncertainty, may yield misleadingly sure predictions. To test the forecast ability of our model we perform in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts up to 2050, revealing that covariates can help to improve the forecasts for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is conducted in a companion paper.Demography, Age-specific, Mortality, Lee-Carter, Stochastic, Bayesian, State Space Models, Forecasts

The Influence of the Business Cycle on Mortality

We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age classes. We employ a recently developed model to set up structural VARs of a latent mortality variable and of unemployment and GDP growth as main business cycle indicators. We find that young adults noticeably differ from the rest of the population. They exhibit increased mortality in a recession, whereas most of the other age classes between childhood and old age react with lower mortality to increased unemployment or decreased GDP growth. In order to avoid that opposed effects may cancel each other, our findings suggest to differentiate closely between particular age classes, especially in the age range of young adults. The results for the U.S. in the period 1956–2004 are confirmed by an international comparison with France and Japan. Long- term changes in the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and mortality are investigated with data since 1933.Age-specific Mortality, Business Cycle, Unemployment, Bayesian Econometrics, Health, Epidemiology

Fumigants in stored product protection

Since man began to store huge amounts of harvested cereal grains and other products in large bulks the application of fumigants was the method of choice for thorough disinfestations. Only these molecules are suitable to meet all the stages of pests even hidden within the products and kill them without moving the stored produce. Some boundary conditions are linked to effective use of fumigants for pest control:The product of premise must be sealed to a high degree of gas tightness – for instance by use of tarpaulins, glue, sticky tapes, poly urethane foam, silica glue or other appropriate materials – to keep the concentration of the gas for some length of tome sufficiently high.The temperature must be sufficiently high to allow penetration of the poison into the insect body and reaction at the target site within the insect.The concentration must be sufficiently high for a considerable length of time to control all stages or the target stage of the pest at a mortality rate of at least 99.9% (to avoid selection for resistance).Only a few fumigants remain as registered compounds for this purpose:metal phosphide products for the release of phosphine gascarbon dioxide as inert atmosphere for replacement of oxygen; also under high pessurenitrogen [as inert atmosphere without need for registration as plant protection product][hydrogen cyanide as gas for use as biocide]The specific features of the fumigants including the efficacy against pests and fields of applications will be discussed

Pest control and constraints in flour mills

Food factories and especially flour mills are object of severe infestations of pest insects. Mediterranean flour moth Ephestia kuehniella and confused flour beetle Tribolium confusum belong to the prevailing pests causing expensive precautions and control measures to avoid complaints of customers. The occurrence of pest insects is not in accordance with food laws and the expectations of buyers of food. Therefore, the biology and behaviour of these pests, the weaknesses of the construction of the premises as breeding place for the pests, the logistic of the flow of product through the machines and the factory have to be understood in the light of pest management. Despite early warning systems and monitoring, inspection of the incoming raw products for possible infestation and many precautions still infestation regularly and often occurs. The choice of possible control procedures is fairly limited. The few remaining contact insecticides lack thorough penetration into infested cracks and crevices let alone the aspect of resistance of pests toward these chemicals. The loss of methyl bromide as quick acting fumigant for thorough pest control of all stages of pests in 2005 opened a chance for sulfuryl fluoride (SF) as alternative fumigant and application of heat in certain circumstances. Also intensive sanitation and partial use of biological antagonists gained its place in the integrated pest management system. The promising use of SF as one to one replacement of methyl bromide found its limitations in the higher cost of the treatment since slightly higher amounts of gas have to be used to be effective possible together with increasing the temperature within the mill to ensure high percentage of mortality. Recently, the maximum residue value for fluorine in treated commodities was reduced in Europe down to 2 mg/kg. This concerns the treatments of large flour mill buildings with in house flour bins that can hardly all be emptied for the fumigation or sufficiently sealed towards the rest of the mill structure. The impact of the high value of the global warming potential (GWP) of SF in comparison with carbon dioxide (higher than factor 1000) is still under consideration. Heating of all infested parts and machinery and hiding places of pest insects in walls, ceilings and floors sounds easier than it may be in practice. The laws of physics apply and require partially huge amounts of energy to elevate the temperature of concrete, insulating material or other infested parts of the construction to lethal values. Flour mills and also some other food processing factories offer attractive conditions for surviving for a group of animals like insects, mites, rodents and birds. This group belongs to typical stored product pests. They accompany man since he started after daily hunting and looking for food to store harvested products for a while to become independent from this daily effort some thousand years ago (Reichmuth 2009). These animals are adjusted to live on fairly dry food and get their necessary water supply either outside the premises (rodents and birds) or by chemically cracking the starch into water and carbon dioxide. Together with shelter against uncomfortable weather, elevated temperature due to the electrical machineries and the milling process and plenty of hiding places behind machinery, flour mills are target of pest infestation. Simply, these factories are paradise for certain pests. The preparation of food on the other side does not allow any living or even dead animals that may end up partially in the packages. Therefore, pest management is a very severe issue and requires plenty of dedication in this branch of industry

Virologic outcomes of HIV-infected children undergoing a single-class drug substitution from Lopinavir/Ritonavir- to Efavirenz-based antiretroviral treatment: A retrospective cohort study

Major advances have been made in preventing mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT), as well as in decreasing morbidity and mortality amongst HIV-infected infants and children. However, maintenance of excellent adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) lifelong is required to achieve optimal benefits. In addition, treatment options for children are limited by potential drug-resistance following PMTCT exposure, availability of appropriate and palatable formulations, long-term toxicity concerns and drug-interactions - notably with co-treatment for tuberculosis. Given these challenges, drug simplification strategies for children remains an important area of research. The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends lopinavir/ritonavir-based (LPV/r) cART as first-line for children <36 months old with the option to substitute LPV/r with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor if virologic suppression is maintained. This simplification strategy is potentially cost-saving, regimen-sparing and more tolerable, with a better long-term side-effect profile. Consequently, benefits should also exist in terms of adherence. The main evidence in support of this strategy has come from trials conducted by the Nevirapine Resistance Studies (NEVEREST) group. In particular, the NEVEREST 3 trial showed that substituting LPV/r for efavirenz (EFV) in children aged 36-60 months virologically suppressed on LPV/r-based cART was protective against viral rebound and had no effect on virological failure compared with remaining on LPV/r. To our knowledge, no studies to date have examined the virologic outcomes of children changed to an EFV-based regimen after initiating a LPV/r based regimen in routine, resource-constrained settings where selection of patients as eligible for EFV substitution and subsequent monitoring practices may be less rigorous than in a trial setting. At the International Epidemiologic Database to Evaluate AIDS - Southern Africa collaboration's (IeDEA-SA) South African sites LPV/r has been used for first-line cART in children <36 months of age irrespective of PMTCT antiretroviral exposure. At many of these sites clinicians have, at their discretion, elected to substitute LPV/r with EFV when children reach 36 months of age. This has provided the opportunity to conduct an observational study to investigate this practice in a routine-care setting – comparing outcomes in children virologically suppressed and ≥36 months old who underwent a substitution of LPV/r to EFV (substitution group) to those who remained on their initial LPV/r-based regimen (stay group)

Efficacy of Communicative Reading Strategies as an Instructional Approach for Adult Low-Ability Readers.

Twelve adult low-ability readers participated in a pretest-posttest control group study investigating the efficacy of Communicative Reading Strategies (CRS) as an instructional reading approach. Six adults received CRS instruction and constituted the experimental group. The remaining six adults received skill-based instruction and served as the control group. All participants demonstrated instructional level reading skills at or below a fifth grade level and completed 40 hours of instruction. Changes in performance on measures of word recognition, comprehension, and reading rate from pretest to posttest were used to compare CRS and control groups. Results of Mann Whitney U analyses revealed that both methods of instruction were effective in improving word recognition and comprehension abilities for most subjects. For individual subjects and mean group gains, the word recognition and comprehension results favored the CRS group, although these differences did not reach a level of statistical significance. Further analyses of the reading performance of CRS subjects revealed additional findings. Scaffolding provided by CRS interactions increased both the assisted word recognition level and assisted comprehension scores for most subjects at both pretest and posttest. Furthermore, reading gains made under scaffolded conditions at pretest were highly predictive of actual unassisted reading gains demonstrated after 40 hours of instruction. Measures of reading accuracy, fluency, rate, comprehension, and story retelling ability obtained from CRS subjects after every 10 hours of instruction was not representative of actual gains demonstrated at posttest

Pest control in stored product and material protection with sulfuryl fluoride

Seit mehreren Jahren ist Sulfurylfluorid (Sulfuryldifluorid, SF) als Schädlingsbekämpfungsmittel für den Materialschutz und den Vorratsschutz gegen Insekten gelistet. Insbesondere der Ersatz des ozonzerstörenden Brommethans wird in diesen Anwendungsgebieten überwiegend mit diesem Wirkstoff realisiert. Sulfurylfluorid gilt seit langer Zeit als ein bewährtes Begasungsmittel gegen Termiten in Holzhäusern in den Vereinigten Staaten. Als 2005 die Industrienationen gemäß den Beschlüssen des Montrealer Protokolls den Ausstieg aus der Brommethantechnologie umsetzten, gab es Zulassungen für die Leerraumentwesung im Vorratsschutz und Genehmigungen für die Verwendung im Holz- und Materialschutz gegen Insekten.Sulfuryl fluoride (sulfuryl difluoride, SF) is well established for termite control in wooden houses as Vikane in the US since 1960. About 10 years ago, the company DowElanco (today DowAgroScience) decided to prepare the authorisation of SF also as replacement fumigant for the envisaged phase out of methyl bromide in 2005. The ozone depleting methyl bromide has in the meantime successfully been replaced by SF in many suitable fields of application. SF started to be used against wood boring insects in Sweden and Germany until it was eventually registered 2005 in many European countries also for stored product protection as Profume. The necessary ct-products (concentration x time of exposure) in the laboratory for effective insect control vary considerably depending on species, developmental stage and temperature. Experimental data require between 14mgh/l and 1694mgh/l for lethal treatments at about 25°C with eggs being the most tolerant stage. In practical mill fumigations ct-products of more than 1800mgh/l did not always control all included eggs of the insect samples even though the air temperature in the mill had been elevated to 35°C. It can be expected that a combination of warming up the object and use of SF may be the approach to meet the high control standards of the food producing industry. New authorisations are expected for various other products than the registered dried fruit and nuts. High purity SF can be used to control insects also in high value wooden artefacts

Field trials with the diatomaceous earth SilicoSec® for treatment of empty rooms and bulk grain

Diatomaceous earths (DE) are fossil diatoms (phytoplankton) that contain silicon dioxide (SiO2), the particles absorb the waterproof lipids from the arthropod cuticle resulting in death through desiccation. The DE SilicoSec® is registered in Germany. The field trials presented here were performed in order to determine (1) the efficacy of SilicoSec® under temperate Central European climatic conditions, (2) the distribution in empty rooms and (3) the possible effect of different surface materials. For empty room treatment, a 41 m² storage room was treated with 20 g/m², the total surface treated including walls was 145 m². At 19 sampling points the amount of DE on the floor was determined. Distinctly less DE attached to the walls compared to the floor, and an uneven distribution on the floor ranging from 2.6 to 49.5 g/m² with a mean±SD of 15.4±14 g/m² per sampling point was measured. Additionally, test pieces with 5 different surface types were placed in the treatment room prior to the treatment. Adult Tribolium confusum and Cryptolestes ferrugineus were placed on all surfaces at 15 to 19°C and 65-81% r.h.. Mean corrected mortality after 14 d in T. confusum and C. ferrugineus was 94% and 65%, respectively. No significantly different mortality was recorded for T. confusum depending on surface type, but in C. ferrugineus significantly less beetles (20%) died on concrete flagstone compared to natural flagstone, glazed ceramic flagging, plywood and porcelain stoneware. For bulk grain, 10 t of wheat were treated with either 0.7 kg/t or 2 kg/t DE. Sitophilus granarius, Oryzaephilus surinamensis and C. ferrugineus adults were placed in vials with treated wheat together with data loggers and placed deep within the bulk for 19 d. Corrected mortality was around 90% for all treatments except for S. granarius at the lower dose where 60% mortality was achieved only. Keywords: Diatomaceous earth, Efficiency, Cryptolestes ferrugineus, Sitophilus granarius, Oryzaephilus surinamensi

Biologische Bekämpfung des Maiskäfers Sitophilus zeamais (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Mais mit der Lagererzwespe Lariophagus distinguendus (Förster) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) sowie der Reismotte Corcyra cephalonica (Stainton) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in Reis mit der Mehlmottenschlupfwespe Habrobracon hebetor (Say) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae)

Maize and rice constitute some of the most important cereals cultivated in the world, being used as staple food for people especially in Africa. The rice moth, Corcyra cephalonica, and the maize weevil, Sitophilus zeamais, are major pests of stored grains in the tropics. The use of parasitoids in biological pest control is already common in different agricultural and horticultural fields. At present, grain managers tend to look at alternatives to chemicals to control insects in stored grain. Lariophagus distinguendus (Förster) is a synovigenic, solitary larval and pupal ectoparasitoid of several beetle species that infest stored goods. The ability for long-range host finding of this parasitoid mediated by volatiles has been shown (Steidle & Schöller 1997). Habrobracon hebetor (Say) is a gregarious ectoparasitoid of many lepidopterous pests. This wasp occurs naturally in the stored grain ecosystem (Keever & al. 1985) where it attacks several pyralid moths, including the rice moth, Corcyra cephalonica. The present study was conducted to assess the host finding of the two parasitoids H. hebetor and L. distinguendus.Wenn Vorratsschädlinge gefüllte Säcke befallen ist eine Bekämpfung mit Hilfe durchgreifender Methoden wie z.B. Begasung oder der Einsatz von Kälte möglich. Die Anwendung dieser Verfahren ist aber technisch nicht immer realisierbar. Verschiedene parasitoide Hymenopteren werden zur biologischen Bekämpfung von Vorratsschädlingen eingesetzt. Diese Wespen dringen in der Regel nicht in Verpackungen ein. Säcke aus Jute besitzen jedoch eine Maschenweite, die das Eindringen von Nützlingen erlauben könnte. Um die Möglichkeit des Nützlingseinsatzes in Sacklägern zu prüfen, wurden folgende Untersuchungen durchgeführt: (1) Wirtsfindung von Habrobracon hebetor in gesacktem Langkornreis (5 kg-Säcke, Raupen von Corcyra cephalonica 4 cm tief im Reis) (2) Wirtsfindung von Lariophagus distinguendus in gesacktem Mais (5 kg-Säcke, Befall durch Sitophilus zeamais). Es wurde täglich auf eindringende L. distinguendus bzw. H. hebetor hin kontrolliert. Der tägliche Schlupf der Nachkommen der Wespen wurde dokumentiert. H. hebetor war nur zu einem sehr geringen Anteil in der Lage, in die Säcke einzudringen. 50% der eingesetzten L. distinguendus drangen in die Jutesäcke ein und verringerten den Populationsaufbau der Maiskäfer. Begleitende Untersuchungen in unverpacktem, geschüttetem Reis ergaben, dass H. hebetor mindestens 14 cm tief eindringt und Reismottenraupen parasitiert