Estimating sunspot number

An empirical method is developed to predict certain parameters of future solar activity cycles. Sunspot cycle statistics are examined, and curve fitting and linear regression analysis techniques are utilized

Application of the Hughes-LIU algorithm to the 2-dimensional heat equation

An implicit explicit algorithm for the solution of transient problems in structural dynamics is described. The method involved dividing the finite elements into implicit and explicit groups while automatically satisfying the conditions. This algorithm is applied to the solution of the linear, transient, two dimensional heat equation subject to an initial condition derived from the soluton of a steady state problem over an L-shaped region made up of a good conductor and an insulating material. Using the IIT/PRIME computer with virtual memory, a FORTRAN computer program code was developed to make accuracy, stability, and cost comparisons among the fully explicit Euler, the Hughes-Liu, and the fully implicit Crank-Nicholson algorithms. The Hughes-Liu claim that the explicit group governs the stability of the entire region while maintaining the unconditional stability of the implicit group is illustrated

Restricted equilibrium ensembles: Exact equation of state of a model glass

We investigate the thermodynamic properties of a toy model of glasses: a hard-core lattice gas with nearest neighbor interaction in one dimension. The time-evolution is Markovian, with nearest-neighbor and next-nearest neighbor hoppings, and the transition rates are assumed to satisfy detailed balance condition, but the system is non-ergodic below a glass temperature. Below this temperature, the system is in restricted thermal equilibrium, where both the number of sectors, and the number of accessible states within a sector grow exponentially with the size of the system. Using partition functions that sum only over dynamically accessible states within a sector, and then taking a quenched average over the sectors, we determine the exact equation of state of this system.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figure

Observation of the impulsive phase of a simple flare

We present a broad range of complementary observations of the onset and impulsive phase of a fairly large (1B, M1.2) but simple two-ribbon flare. The observations consist of hard X-ray flux measured by the SMM HXRBS, high-sensitivity measurements of microwave flux at 22 GHz from Itapetinga Radio Observatory, sequences of spectroheliograms in UV emission lines from Ov (T ≈ 2 × 10⁵ K) and FeXXI (T ≈ 1 × 10⁷ K) from the SMM UVSP, Hα and HeI D₃ cine-filtergrams from Big Bear Solar Observatory, and a magnetogram of the flare region from the MSFC Solar Observatory. From these data we conclude: (1) The overall magnetic field configuration in which the flare occurred was a fairly simple, closed arch containing nonpotential substructure. (2) The flare occurred spontaneously within the arch; it was not triggered by emerging magnetic flux. (3) The impulsive energy release occurred in two major spikes. The second spike took place within the flare arch heated in the first spike, but was concentrated on a different subset of field lines. The ratio of Ov emission to hard X-ray emission decreased by at least a factor of 2 from the first spike to the second, probably because the plasma density in the flare arch had increased by chromospheric evaporation. (4) The impulsive energy release most likely occurred in the upper part of the arch; it had three immediate products: (a) An increase in the plasma pressure throughout the flare arch of at least a factor of 10. This is required because the FeXXI emission was confined to the feet of the flare arch for at least the first minute of the impulsive phase. (b) Nonthermal energetic (∼ 25 keV) electrons which impacted the feet of the arch to produce the hard X-ray burst and impulsive brightening in Ov and D₃. The evidence for this is the simultaneity, within ± 2 s, of the peak Ov and hard X-ray emissions. (c) Another population of high-energy (∼100keV) electrons (decoupled from the population that produced the hard X-rays) that produced the impulsive microwave emission at 22 GHz. This conclusion is drawn because the microwave peak was 6 ± 3 s later than the hard X-ray peak

Serum microRNA array analysis identifies miR-140-3p, miR-33b-3p and miR-671-3p as potential osteoarthritis biomarkers involved in metabolic processes.

Background: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) in circulation have emerged as promising biomarkers. In this study, we aimed to identify a circulating miRNA signature for osteoarthritis (OA) patients and in combination with bioinformatics analysis to evaluate the utility of selected differentially expressed miRNAs in the serum as potential OA biomarkers. Methods: Serum samples were collected from 12 primary OA patients, and 12 healthy individuals were screened using the Agilent Human miRNA Microarray platform interrogating 2549 miRNAs. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the deregulated miRNAs. Expression levels of selected miRNAs were validated by quantitative real-time PCR (qRT-PCR) in all serum and in articular cartilage samples from OA patients (n = 12) and healthy individuals (n = 7). Bioinformatics analysis was used to investigate the involved pathways and target genes for the above miRNAs. Results: We identified 279 differentially expressed miRNAs in the serum of OA patients compared to controls. Two hundred and five miRNAs (73.5%) were upregulated and 74 (26.5%) downregulated. ROC analysis revealed that 77 miRNAs had area under the curve (AUC) > 0.8 and p < 0.05. Bioinformatics analysis in the 77 miRNAs revealed that their target genes were involved in multiple signaling pathways associated with OA, among which FoxO, mTOR, Wnt, pI3K/akt, TGF-β signaling pathways, ECM-receptor interaction, and fatty acid biosynthesis. qRT-PCR validation in seven selected out of the 77 miRNAs revealed 3 significantly downregulated miRNAs (hsa-miR-33b-3p, hsa-miR-671-3p, and hsa-miR-140-3p) in the serum of OA patients, which were in silico predicted to be enriched in pathways involved in metabolic processes. Target-gene analysis of hsa-miR-140-3p, hsa-miR-33b-3p, and hsa-miR-671-3p revealed that InsR and IGFR1 were common targets of all three miRNAs, highlighting their involvement in regulation of metabolic processes that contribute to OA pathology. Hsa-miR-140-3p and hsa-miR-671-3p expression levels were consistently downregulated in articular cartilage of OA patients compared to healthy individuals. Conclusions: A serum miRNA signature was established for the first time using high density resolution miR-arrays in OA patients. We identified a three-miRNA signature, hsa-miR-140-3p, hsa-miR-671-3p, and hsa-miR-33b-3p, in the serum of OA patients, predicted to regulate metabolic processes, which could serve as a potential biomarker for the evaluation of OA risk and progression.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Defending the genome from the enemy within:mechanisms of retrotransposon suppression in the mouse germline

The viability of any species requires that the genome is kept stable as it is transmitted from generation to generation by the germ cells. One of the challenges to transgenerational genome stability is the potential mutagenic activity of transposable genetic elements, particularly retrotransposons. There are many different types of retrotransposon in mammalian genomes, and these target different points in germline development to amplify and integrate into new genomic locations. Germ cells, and their pluripotent developmental precursors, have evolved a variety of genome defence mechanisms that suppress retrotransposon activity and maintain genome stability across the generations. Here, we review recent advances in understanding how retrotransposon activity is suppressed in the mammalian germline, how genes involved in germline genome defence mechanisms are regulated, and the consequences of mutating these genome defence genes for the developing germline

Herd-level animal management factors associated with the occurrence of bovine neonatal pancytopenia in calves in a multicountry study

Since 2007, mortality associated with a previously unreported haemorrhagic disease has been observed in young calves in several European countries. The syndrome, which has been named ‘bovine neonatal pancytopenia’ (BNP), is characterised by thrombocytopenia, leukocytopenia and a panmyelophthisis. A herd-level case-control study was conducted in four BNP affected countries (Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) to identify herd management risk factors for BNP occurrence. Data were collected using structured face-to-face and telephone interviews of farm managers and their local veterinarians. In total, 363 case farms and 887 control farms were included in a matched multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis. Case-control status was strongly associated with the odds of herd level use of the vaccine PregSure® BVD (PregSure, Pfizer Animal Health) (matched adjusted odds ratio (OR) 107.2; 95% CI: 41.0–280.1). This was also the case for the practices of feeding calves colostrum from the calf’s own dam (OR 2.0; 95% CI: 1.1–3.4) or feeding pooled colostrum (OR 4.1; 95% CI: 1.9–8.8). Given that the study had relatively high statistical power and represented a variety of cattle production and husbandry systems, it can be concluded with some confidence that no other herd level management factors are competent causes for a sufficient cause of BNP occurrence on herd level. It is suggested that genetic characteristics of the dams and BNP calves should be the focus of further investigations aimed at identifying the currently missing component causes that together with PregSure vaccination and colostrum feeding represent a sufficient cause for occurrence of BNP in calves

Thermal AdS(3), BTZ and competing winding modes condensation

We study the thermal physics of AdS(3) and the BTZ black hole when embedded in String theory. The exact calculation of the Hagedorn temperature in TAdS(3) is reinterpreted as the appearance of a winding tachyon both in AdS(3) and BTZ. We construct a dual framework for analyzing the phases of the system. In this dual framework, tachyon condensation and geometric capping appear on the same footing, bridging the usual gap of connecting tachyon condensation to modifications of geometry. This allows us to construct in a natural way a candidate for the unstable phase, analogous to a small black hole in higher dimensions. Additional peculiar effects associated with the Hagedorn temperature and the Hawking-Page transition, some to do with the asymptotic structure of AdS(3) and some with strong curvature effects, are analyzed and explained.Comment: 40 pages, 5 figures, JHEP3 format. v2: added references, minor corrections and clarification