Mongolian state weakness, foreign policy, and dependency on the People’s Republic of China

This thesis draws on a synthesis of foreign policy analysis (FPA) and constructivism in order to demonstrate how post Cold War Mongolia’s relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) can be analysed through a multisectoral approach to explain the dilemmas that a weak state faces when conducting its relations with a much more powerful neighbour. It proposes that the dissonance between Mongolia’s social identity and its structures of governance is the basis for the Mongolian state’s weakness and that such weakness makes growing economic dependency on the PRC more difficult to manage. Moreover, the resulting combination of economic dependency and state weakness seriously limits the government’s ability to maintain an effective broader foreign policy. The dissertation draws on government texts, academic and media articles, and interviews in Mandarin Chinese, Mongolian, and English. The thesis looks in detail at the nature of Mongolian identity politics by focusing on identity development over la longue durée. It then demonstrates how the international community failed to take account of the dynamics of Mongolian identity politics when it came to assisting the Mongolian government with the country’s post Cold War transition from communism. This led to an undue reliance on what can be termed ‘Washington Consensus’ type political and economic reforms that considerably added to the weakness of the state. The thesis then focuses on Mongolia’s economic relations with the PRC to show how such state weakness has resulted in a relationship of growing dependency. Building on economic dependency theory, the thesis then further examines the implications of Mongolia-Sino relations from environmental, societal, and military perspectives. In conclusion, the dissertation argues that the division between the Mongolian state and society has been exacerbated by the country’s adherence to capitalism and democracy in ways that have created the potential for domestic instability by increasing the depth and breadth of economic dependence on the PRC. This imposes severe constraints on foreign policy options but has also demanded some imaginative innovations that give interesting insights into the measures a vulnerable state can take to maximise its international presence. Ultimately, however, the disjuncture between social identity and the state acts as a constraining factor on such initiatives in the case of Mongolia

Self-Confirming Price Prediction for Bidding in Simultaneous Ascending Auctions

Simultaneous, separate ascending auctions are ubiquitous, even when agents have preferences over combinations of goods, from which arises the emph{exposure problem}. Little is known about strategies that perform well when the exposure problem is important. We present a new family of bidding strategies for this situation, in which agents form and utilize various amounts of information from predictions of the distribution of final prices. The predictor strategies we define differ in their choice of method for generating the initial (pre-auction) prediction. We explore several methods, but focus on emph{self-confirming} predictions. An agents prediction of characteristics of the distribution of closing prices is self-confirming if, when all agents follow the same predictor bidding strategy, the final price distributions that actually result are consistent with the utilized characteristics of the prediction. We extensively analyze an auction environment with five goods, and five agents who each can choose from 53 different bidding strategies (resulting in over 4.2 million distinct strategy combinations). We find that the self-confirming distribution predictor is a highly stable, pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. We have been unable to find any other Nash strategies in this environment. In limited experiments in other environments the self-confirming distribution predictor consistently performs well, but is not generally a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium

Self-Confirming Price Prediction for Bidding in Simultaneous Ascending Auctions

Simultaneous, separate ascending auctions are ubiquitous, even when agents have preferences over combinations of goods, from which arises the emph{exposure problem}. Little is known about strategies that perform well when the exposure problem is important. We present a new family of bidding strategies for this situation, in which agents form and utilize various amounts of information from predictions of the distribution of final prices. The predictor strategies we define differ in their choice of method for generating the initial (pre-auction) prediction. We explore several methods, but focus on emph{self-confirming} predictions. An agents prediction of characteristics of the distribution of closing prices is self-confirming if, when all agents follow the same predictor bidding strategy, the final price distributions that actually result are consistent with the utilized characteristics of the prediction. We extensively analyze an auction environment with five goods, and five agents who each can choose from 53 different bidding strategies (resulting in over 4.2 million distinct strategy combinations). We find that the self-confirming distribution predictor is a highly stable, pure-strategy Nash equilibrium. We have been unable to find any other Nash strategies in this environment. In limited experiments in other environments the self-confirming distribution predictor consistently performs well, but is not generally a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium

History of Whaling and Estimated Kill of Right Whales, Balaena glacialis, in the Northeastern United States, 1620–1924

This study, part of a broader investigation of the history of exploitation of right whales, Balaena glacialis, in the western North Atlantic, emphasizes U.S. shore whaling from Maine to Delaware (from lat. 45°N to 38°30'N) in the period 1620–1924. Our broader study of the entire catch history is intended to provide an empirical basis for assessing past distribution and abundance of this whale population. Shore whaling may have begun at Cape Cod, Mass., in the 1620’s or 1630’s; it was certainly underway there by 1668. Right whale catches in New England waters peaked before 1725, and shore whaling at Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket continued to decline through the rest of the 18th century. Right whales continued to be taken opportunistically in Massachusetts, however, until the early 20th century. They were hunted in Narragansett Bay, R.I., as early as 1662, and desultory whaling continued in Rhode Island until at least 1828. Shore whaling in Connecticut may have begun in the middle 1600’s, continuing there until at least 1718. Long Island shore whaling spanned the period 1650–1924. From its Dutch origins in the 1630’s, a persistent shore whaling enterprise developed in Delaware Bay and along the New Jersey shore. Although this activity was most profi table in New Jersey in the early 1700’s, it continued there until at least the 1820’s. Whaling in all areas of the northeastern United States was seasonal, with most catches in the winter and spring. Historically, right whales appear to have been essentially absent from coastal waters south of Maine during the summer and autumn. Based on documented references to specific whale kills, about 750–950 right whales were taken between Maine and Delaware, from 1620 to 1924. Using production statistics in British customs records, the estimated total secured catch of right whales in New England, New York, and Pennsylvania between 1696 and 1734 was 3,839 whales based on oil and 2,049 based on baleen. After adjusting these totals for hunting loss (loss-rate correction factor = 1.2), we estimate that 4,607 (oil) or 2,459 (baleen) right whales were removed from the stock in this region during the 38-year period 1696–1734. A cumulative catch estimate of the stock’s size in 1724 is 1,100–1,200. Although recent evidence of occurrence and movements suggests that right whales continue to use their traditional migratory corridor along the U.S. east coast, the catch history indicates that this stock was much larger in the 1600’s and early 1700’s than it is today. Right whale hunting in the eastern United States ended by the early 1900’s, and the species has been protected throughout the North Atlantic since the mid 1930’s. Among the possible reasons for the relatively slow stock recovery are: the very small number of whales that survived the whaling era to become founders, a decline in environmental carrying capacity, and, especially in recent decades, mortality from ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear

Clumped isotopologue constraints on the origin of methane at seafloor hot springs

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2017. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 223 (2018): 141-158, doi:10.1016/j.gca.2017.11.030.Hot-spring fluids emanating from deep-sea vents hosted in unsedimented ultramafic and mafic rock commonly contain high concentrations of methane. Multiple hypotheses have been proposed for the origin(s) of this methane, ranging from synthesis via reduction of aqueous inorganic carbon (ΣCO2) during active fluid circulation to leaching of methane-rich fluid inclusions from plutonic rocks of the oceanic crust. To further resolve the process(es) responsible for methane generation in these systems, we determined the relative abundances of several methane isotopologues (including 13CH3D, a “clumped” isotopologue containing two rare isotope substitutions) in hot-spring source fluids sampled from four geochemically-distinct hydrothermal vent fields (Rainbow, Von Damm, Lost City, and Lucky Strike). Apparent equilibrium temperatures retrieved from methane clumped isotopologue analyses average 310−42 +53 °C, with no apparent relation to the wide range of fluid temperatures (96 to 370 °C) and chemical compositions (pH, [H2], [ΣCO2], [CH4]) represented. Combined with very similar bulk stable isotope ratios (13C/12C and D/H) of methane across the suite of hydrothermal fluids, all available geochemical and isotopic data suggest a common mechanism of methane generation at depth that is disconnected from active fluid circulation. Attainment of equilibrium amongst methane isotopologues at temperatures of ca. 270 to 360 °C is compatible with the thermodynamically-favorable reduction of CO2 to CH4 at temperatures at or below ca. 400 °C under redox conditions characterizing intrusive rocks derived from sub-ridge melts. Collectively, the observations support a model where methane-rich aqueous fluids, known to be trapped in rocks of the oceanic lithosphere, are liberated from host rocks during hydrothermal circulation and perhaps represent the major source of methane venting with thermal waters at unsedimented hydrothermal fields. The results also provide further evidence that water-rock reactions occurring at temperatures lower than 200 °C do not contribute significantly to the quantities of methane venting at mid-ocean ridge hot springs.Financial support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF awards EAR-1250394 to S.O., and OCE-1061863 and OCE-0549829 to J.S.S.), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (NNX-327 09AB75G to J.S.S., and the NASA Astrobiology Institute “Rock- Powered Life” project under cooperative agreement NNA15BB02A to S.O.), the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation via the Deep Carbon Observatory (to S.O. and J.S.S.), the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) through a National Defense Science & Engineering Graduate (NDSEG) Fellowship (to D.T.W.), a Shell-MIT Energy Initiative Fellowship, and the Kerr-McGee Professorship at MIT (to S.O.) is gratefully acknowledged

Comparison of performance achievement award recognition with primary stroke center certification for acute ischemic stroke care.

BackgroundHospital certification and recognition programs represent 2 independent but commonly used systems to distinguish hospitals, yet they have not been directly compared. This study assessed acute ischemic stroke quality of care measure conformity by hospitals receiving Primary Stroke Center (PSC) certification and those receiving the American Heart Association's Get With The Guidelines-Stroke (GWTG-Stroke) Performance Achievement Award (PAA) recognition.Methods and resultsThe patient and hospital characteristics as well as performance/quality measures for acute ischemic stroke from 1356 hospitals participating in the GWTG-Stroke Program 2010-2012 were compared. Hospitals were classified as PAA+/PSC+ (hospitals n = 410, patients n = 169,302), PAA+/PSC- (n = 415, n = 129,454), PAA-/PSC+ (n = 88, n = 26,386), and PAA-/PSC- (n = 443, n = 75,565). A comprehensive set of stroke measures were compared with adjustment for patient and hospital characteristics. Patient characteristics were similar by PAA and PSC status but PAA-/PSC- hospitals were more likely to be smaller and nonteaching. Measure conformity was highest for PAA+/PSC+ and PAA+/PSC- hospitals, intermediate for PAA-/PSC+ hospitals, and lowest for PAA-/PSC- hospitals (all-or-none care measure 91.2%, 91.2%, 84.3%, and 76.9%, respectively). After adjustment for patient and hospital characteristics, PAA+/PSC+, PAA+/PSC-, and PAA-/PSC+ hospitals had 3.15 (95% CIs 2.86 to 3.47); 3.23 (2.93 to 3.56) and 1.72 (1.47 to 2.00), higher odds for providing all indicated stroke performance measures to patients compared with PAA-/PSC- hospitals.ConclusionsWhile both PSC certification and GWTG-Stroke PAA recognition identified hospitals providing higher conformity with care measures for patients hospitalized with acute ischemic stroke, PAA recognition was a more robust identifier of hospitals with better performance

Wildfire may increase habitat quality for spring Chinook salmon in the Wenatchee River subbasin, WA, USA

Pacific Northwest salmonids are adapted to natural disturbance regimes that create dynamic habitat patterns over space and through time. However, human land use, particularly long-term fire suppression, has altered the intensity and frequency of wildfire in forested upland and riparian areas. To examine the potential impacts of wildfire on aquatic systems, we developed stream-reach-scale models of freshwater habitat for three life stages (adult, egg/fry, and juvenile) of spring Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Wenatchee River subbasin, Washington. We used variables representing pre- and post-fire habitat conditions and employed novel techniques to capture changes in in-stream fine sediment, wood, and water temperature. Watershed-scale comparisons of high-quality habitat for each life stage of spring Chinook salmon habitat suggested that there are smaller quantities of high-quality juvenile overwinter habitat as compared to habitat for other life stages. We found that wildfire has the potential to increase quality of adult and overwintering juvenile habitat through increased delivery of wood, while decreasing the quality of egg and fry habitat due to the introduction of fine sediments. Model results showed the largest effect of fire on habitat quality associated with the juvenile life stage, resulting in increases in high-quality habitat in all watersheds. Due to the limited availability of pre-fire high-quality juvenile habitat, and increased habitat quality for this life stage post-fire, occurrence of characteristic wildfires would likely create a positive effect on spring Chinook salmon habitat in the Wenatchee River subbasin. We also compared pre- and post-fire model results of freshwater habitat for each life stage, and for the geometric mean of habitat quality across all life stages, using current compared to the historic distribution of spring Chinook salmon. We found that spring Chinook salmon are currently distributed in stream channels in which in-stream habitat for most life stages has a consistently positive response to fire. This compares to the historic distribution of spring Chinook, in which in-stream habitat exhibited a variable response to fire, including decreases in habitat quality overall or for specific life stages. This suggests that as the distribution of spring Chinook has decreased, they now occupy those areas with the most positive potential response to fire. Our work shows the potentially positive link between wildfire and aquatic habitat that supports forest managers in setting broader goals for fire management, perhaps leading to less fire suppression in some situations

Animal Counting Toolkit : a practical guide to small-boat surveys for estimating abundance of coastal marine mammals

The authors thank Synchronicity Earth, Marisla Foundation, and the US Marine Mammal Commission for seed funding for this program.Small cetaceans (dolphins and porpoises) face serious anthropogenic threats in coastal habitats. These include bycatch in fisheries; exposure to noise, plastic and chemical pollution; disturbance from boaters; and climate change. Generating reliable abundance estimates is essential to assess sustainability of bycatch in fishing gear or any other form of anthropogenic removals and to design conservation and recovery plans for endangered species. Cetacean abundance estimates are lacking from many coastal waters of many developing countries. Lack of funding and training opportunities makes it difficult to fill in data gaps. Even if international funding were found for surveys in developing countries, building local capacity would be necessary to sustain efforts over time to detect trends and monitor biodiversity loss. Large-scale, shipboard surveys can cost tens of thousands of US dollars each day. We focus on methods to generate preliminary abundance estimates from low-cost, small-boat surveys that embrace a ‘training-while-doing’ approach to fill in data gaps while simultaneously building regional capacity for data collection. Our toolkit offers practical guidance on simple design and field data collection protocols that work with small boats and small budgets, but expect analysis to involve collaboration with a quantitative ecologist or statistician. Our audience includes independent scientists, government conservation agencies, NGOs and indigenous coastal communities, with a primary focus on fisheries bycatch. We apply our Animal Counting Toolkit to a small-boat survey in Canada’s Pacific coastal waters to illustrate the key steps in collecting line transect survey data used to estimate and monitor marine mammal abundance.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Self-Confirming Price Prediction for Bidding in Simultaneous Ascending Auctions

Simultaneous ascending auctions present agents with the exposure problem: bidding to acquire a bundle risks the possibility of obtaining an undesired subset of the goods. Auction theory provides little guidance for dealing with this problem. We present a new family of decisiontheoretic bidding strategies that use probabilistic predictions of final prices. We focus on selfconfirming price distribution predictions, which by definition turn out to be correct when all agents bid decision-theoretically based on them. Bidding based on these is provably not optimal in general, but our experimental evidence indicates the strategy can be quite effective compared to other known methods.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/49509/1/ppsaa.pd