Bayesian models for the determination of resonant frequencies in a DI diesel engine

A time series method for the determination of combustion chamber resonant frequencies is outlined. This technique employs the use of Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to infer parameters in a chosen model of the data. The development of the model is included and the resonant frequency is characterised as a function of time. Potential applications for cycle-by-cycle analysis are discussed and the bulk temperature of the gas and the trapped mass in the combustion chamber are evaluated as a function of time from resonant frequency information

Nineteenth-century Ship-based Catches of Gray Whales, Eschrichtius robustus, in the Eastern North Pacific

The 19th century commercial ship-based fishery for gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus, in the eastern North Pacific began in 1846 and continued until the mid 1870’s in southern areas and the 1880’s in the north. Henderson identified three periods in the southern part of the fishery: Initial, 1846–1854; Bonanza, 1855–1865; and Declining, 1866–1874. The largest catches were made by “lagoon whaling” in or immediately outside the whale population’s main wintering areas in Mexico—Magdalena Bay, Scammon’s Lagoon, and San Ignacio Lagoon. Large catches were also made by “coastal” or “alongshore” whaling where the whalers attacked animals as they migrated along the coast. Gray whales were also hunted to a limited extent on their feeding grounds in the Bering and Chukchi Seas in summer. Using all available sources, we identified 657 visits by whaling vessels to the Mexican whaling grounds during the gray whale breeding and calving seasons between 1846 and 1874. We then estimated the total number of such visits in which the whalers engaged in gray whaling. We also read logbooks from a sample of known visits to estimate catch per visit and the rate at which struck animals were lost. This resulted in an overall estimate of 5,269 gray whales (SE = 223.4) landed by the ship-based fleet (including both American and foreign vessels) in the Mexican whaling grounds from 1846 to 1874. Our “best” estimate of the number of gray whales removed from the eastern North Pacific (i.e. catch plus hunting loss) lies somewhere between 6,124 and 8,021, depending on assumptions about survival of struck-but-lost whales. Our estimates can be compared to those by Henderson (1984), who estimated that 5,542–5,507 gray whales were secured and processed by ship-based whalers between 1846 and 1874; Scammon (1874), who believed the total kill over the same period (of eastern gray whales by all whalers in all areas) did not exceed 10,800; and Best (1987), who estimated the total landed catch of gray whales (eastern and western) by American ship-based whalers at 2,665 or 3,013 (method-dependent) from 1850 to 1879. Our new estimates are not high enough to resolve apparent inconsistencies between the catch history and estimates of historical abundance based on genetic variability. We suggest several lines of further research that may help resolve these inconsistencies

Relationship between quality of care and choice of clinical computing system: Retrospective analysis of family practice performance under the UK's quality and outcomes framework

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship between performance on the UK Quality and Outcomes Framework pay-for-performance scheme and choice of clinical computer system. DESIGN: Retrospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Data for 2007–2008 to 2010–2011, extracted from the clinical computer systems of general practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: All English practices participating in the pay-for-performance scheme: average 8257 each year, covering over 99% of the English population registered with a general practice. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Levels of achievement on 62 quality-of-care indicators, measured as: reported achievement (levels of care after excluding inappropriate patients); population achievement (levels of care for all patients with the relevant condition) and percentage of available quality points attained. Multilevel mixed effects multiple linear regression models were used to identify population, practice and clinical computing system predictors of achievement. RESULTS: Seven clinical computer systems were consistently active in the study period, collectively holding approximately 99% of the market share. Of all population and practice characteristics assessed, choice of clinical computing system was the strongest predictor of performance across all three outcome measures. Differences between systems were greatest for intermediate outcomes indicators (eg, control of cholesterol levels). CONCLUSIONS: Under the UK's pay-for-performance scheme, differences in practice performance were associated with the choice of clinical computing system. This raises the question of whether particular system characteristics facilitate higher quality of care, better data recording or both. Inconsistencies across systems need to be understood and addressed, and researchers need to be cautious when generalising findings from samples of providers using a single computing system

Insights From Whaling Logbooks on Whales, Dolphins, and Whaling in the Gulf of Mexico

Whaling voyage logbooks provide a unique window into historical marine animal distribution and relative numbers. The Gulf of Mexico was among the regions visited by American commercial whalers beginning in the late 1700s, and possibly as early as the 1760s. For more than a century, they hunted sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) and blackfish (usually probably short-finned pilot whales; Globicephala macrorhynchus) in the Gulf. An ongoing study of global whaling history has allowed us to offer some insights on characteristics and trends of the Gulf fishery and on cetacean populations in the Gulf. We examined 53 voyage logbooks that included some whaling in the Gulf. Using the information from those logbooks and other sources, we identified 204 different voyages that included one or more ‘‘vessel-seasons’’ of whaling in the Gulf (total of 214 vessel-seasons) between 1788 and 1877. More than three-quarters (76%) of the 186 voyages for which the rig type is known were by brigs or schooners; they sailed primarily from the Massachusetts ports of New Bedford and Nantucket initially and Provincetown in later years. The whaling took place mainly in deep portions of the Gulf and in the first 7 mo of the calendar year (i.e., from Jan. through July). The sperm whales hunted in the Gulf tended to be small and were usually taken from schools, suggesting that they were mostly juveniles and females. Observations (and occasionally catches) of other cetaceans besides sperm whales and blackfish are mentioned in the logbooks—mainly ‘‘finbacks’’ (Balaenoptera sp.), killer whales (Orcinus orca), and ‘‘porpoises’’ (various small delphinids)

Optimizing astrophotonic spatial reformatters using simulated on-sky performance

One of the most useful techniques in astronomical instrumentation is image slicing. It enables a spectrograph to have a more compact angular slit, whilst retaining throughput and increasing resolving power. Astrophotonic components like the photonic lanterns and photonic reformatters can be used to replace bulk optics used so far. This study investigates the performance of such devices using end-to-end simulations to approximate realistic on-sky conditions. It investigates existing components, tries to optimize their performance and aims to understand better how best to design instruments to maximize their performance. This work complements the recent work in the field and provides an estimation for the performance of the new components.Comment: Conference proceedings in SPIE 2018 Austin Texa

Historical Catches of Humpback Whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, in the North Atlantic Ocean: Estimates of Landings and Removals

Whaling for humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, in the North At- lantic Ocean has occurred in various forms (e.g. for local subsistence, for oil to be sold commercially, using hand harpoons and deck-mounted cannons, using oar-driven open boats and modern powered catcher boats) from the early 1600’s to the present. Several previous attempts to estimate the total numbers of humpback whales removed were considered close to comprehensive, but some uncertainties remained. Moreover, the statistical uncertainty was not consistently presented with the previous estimates. Therefore, we have pursued several avenues of additional data collection and conducted further analyses to close outstanding data gaps and address remaining issues. Our new estimates of landings and total removals of humpback whales from the North Atlantic are 21,476 (SE=214) and 30,842 (SE=655), respectively. These results include statistical uncertainty, reflect new data and improved analysis methods, and take account of some fisheries for which estimates had not been made previously. The new estimates are not sufficiently different from previous ones to resolve the major inconsistencies and discrepancies encountered in efforts to determine the conservation status of humpback whale populations in the North Atlantic

Wearables or infrastructure: contrasting approaches to collecting behavioural data in the home

This paper examines and contrasts two approaches to collecting behavioural data within the home. The first of these involves filming from static video cameras combined with network logging to capture media consumption activities across multiple screens. The second utilises wearable cameras that passively collect still images to provide insights into food related behaviours. The paper compares the approaches from the perspective of the researchers and participants, and outlines the key benefits and challenges of each, with the aim of further mapping the space of possibilities now available when studying behaviour in the home

Withdrawing performance indicators: retrospective analysis of general practice performance under UK Quality and Outcomes Framework

Objectives To investigate the effect of withdrawing incentives on recorded quality of care, in the context of the UK Quality and Outcomes Framework pay for performance scheme. Design Retrospective longitudinal study. Setting Data for 644 general practices, from 2004/05 to 2011/12, extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Participants All patients registered with any of the practices over the study period—13 772 992 in total. Intervention Removal of financial incentives for aspects of care for patients with asthma, coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and psychosis. Main outcome measures Performance on eight clinical quality indicators withdrawn from a national incentive scheme: influenza immunisation (asthma) and lithium treatment monitoring (psychosis), removed in April 2006; blood pressure monitoring (coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke), cholesterol concentration monitoring (coronary heart disease, diabetes), and blood glucose monitoring (diabetes), removed in April 2011. Multilevel mixed effects multiple linear regression models were used to quantify the effect of incentive withdrawal. Results Mean levels of performance were generally stable after the removal of the incentives, in both the short and long term. For the two indicators removed in April 2006, levels in 2011/12 were very close to 2005/06 levels, although a small but statistically significant drop was estimated for influenza immunisation. For five of the six indicators withdrawn from April 2011, no significant effect on performance was seen following removal and differences between predicted and observed scores were small. Performance on related outcome indicators retained in the scheme (such as blood pressure control) was generally unaffected. Conclusions Following the removal of incentives, levels of performance across a range of clinical activities generally remained stable. This indicates that health benefits from incentive schemes can potentially be increased by periodically replacing existing indicators with new indicators relating to alternative aspects of care. However, all aspects of care investigated remained indirectly or partly incentivised in other indicators, and further work is needed to assess the generalisability of the findings when incentives are fully withdrawn

Wearables or infrastructure: contrasting approaches to collecting behavioural data in the home

This paper examines and contrasts two approaches to collecting behavioural data within the home. The first of these involves filming from static video cameras combined with network logging to capture media consumption activities across multiple screens. The second utilises wearable cameras that passively collect still images to provide insights into food related behaviours. The paper compares the approaches from the perspective of the researchers and participants,and outlines the key benefits and challenges of each, with the aim of further mapping the space of possibilities now available when studying behaviour in the home

Primary care consultation rates among people with and without severe mental illness:a UK cohort study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about service utilisation by patients with severe mental illness (SMI) in UK primary care. We examined their consultation rate patterns and whether they were impacted by the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF), in 2004. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using individual patient data collected from 2000 to 2012. SETTING: 627 general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a large UK primary care database. PARTICIPANTS: SMI cases (346 551) matched to 5 individuals without SMI (1 732 755) on age, gender and general practice. OUTCOME MEASURES: Consultation rates were calculated for both groups, across 3 types: face-to-face (primary outcome), telephone and other (not only consultations but including administrative tasks). Poisson regression analyses were used to identify predictors of consultation rates and calculate adjusted consultation rates. Interrupted time-series analysis was used to quantify the effect of the QOF. RESULTS: Over the study period, face-to-face consultations in primary care remained relatively stable in the matched control group (between 4.5 and 4.9 per annum) but increased for people with SMI (8.8-10.9). Women and older patients consulted more frequently in the SMI and the matched control groups, across all 3 consultation types. Following the introduction of the QOF, there was an increase in the annual trend of face-to-face consultation for people with SMI (average increase of 0.19 consultations per patient per year, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.36), which was not observed for the control group (estimates across groups statistically different, p=0.022). CONCLUSIONS: The introduction of the QOF was associated with increases in the frequency of monitoring and in the average number of reported comorbidities for patients with SMI. This suggests that the QOF scheme successfully incentivised practices to improve their monitoring of the mental and physical health of this group of patients