Using data to make a difference: Understanding crime through victimisation surveys

Victimisation surveys have the potential to deepen our understanding of crime in South Africa. Using the example of a survey conducted in Galeshewe, this article considers the challenges facing analysts in analysing victimisation surveys and suggests ways to increase the information that can be mined from local and national victimisation surveys

Fitting models of multiple hypotheses to partial population data: investigating the causes of cycles in red grouse

There are two postulated causes for the observed periodic fluctuations (cycles) in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). The first involves interaction with the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis. The second invokes delayed regulation through the effect of male aggressiveness on territoriality. Empirical evidence exists to support both hypotheses, and each hypothesis has been modeled deterministically. However, little effort has gone into looking at the combined effects of the two mechanisms or formally fitting the corresponding models to field data. Here we present a model for red grouse dynamics that includes both parasites and territoriality. To explore the single and combined hypotheses, we specify three versions of this model and fit them to data using Bayesian state‐space modeling, a method that allows statistical inference to be performed on mechanistic models such as ours. Output from the three models is then examined to determine their goodness of fit and the biological plausibility of the parameter values required by each to fit the population data. While all three models are capable of emulating the observed cyclic dynamics, only the model including both aggression and parasites does so under consistently realistic parameter values, providing theoretical support for the idea that both mechanisms shape red grouse cycles

The electrophysiological effects of Endothelin-1 in human atrial myocytes

Introduction: Chronic heart failure (CHF) is associated with an increased incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) and elevated levels of catecholamines and endothelin-1 (ET-1), each of which affects the atrial L-type calcium current (ICaL) and consequently action potentials. Hypotheses: ET-1 modulates the effects of isoproterenol (ISO) on ICaL and action potentials in human atrial myocytes. Methods: Atrial myocytes were isolated enzymatically from samples of right atrial appendage obtained from consenting patients in sinus rhythm undergoing cardiac surgery. The nystatin-perforated whole cell patch clamp technique was used at 37ºC to record ICaL and action potentials in voltage-clamp and current-clamp mode respectively. Results: The current-voltage relationship of ICaL was bell-shaped, peaking at +10 mV with a current density of -4.8±0.4 pA/pF (mean± s.e.m., n=89 cells, 34 patients). ISO, 0.1 nM to 1 µM, increased peak ICaL in a concentration-dependent manner (n=4-46 cells) with a maximum response of 250± 53% above control and an approximate EC50 of 0.06 µM. Isoproterenol at 0.05 µM significantly increased peak ICaL from -4.7± 0.4 to -12.2± 0.9 pA/pF (P<0.05, Students t-test; n=64 cells). This adrenergic effect was reversed by ET-1 at all concentrations tested from 0.01 to 10 nM and was partially reversible upon ET-1 washout and in the presence of the specific ET-A receptor antagonist, FR139317 (n=5-12 cells). Neither ET-1 alone nor the ET-B receptor agonist Sarafotoxin S6c, at 10 nM, had an effect on ICaL. Isoproterenol (0.05 µM) prolonged the action potential duration at 50% repolarisation (APD50) from 30± 7 to 46± 7 ms (P< 0.05, n=15 cells), but had no effect on APD90 nor the cellular ERP. These adrenergic effects on APD50 and SDs were also abolished by ET-1 at 10 nM (P< 0.05, n=15 cells). Superfusion with ET-1 (10 nM) alone had no significant effect on APD50, APD90, nor ERP (n=21 cells). There were no significant interactions between these electrophysiological effects and diseases states or chronic pre-operative drug therapy. Spontaneous activity, defined as a depolarisation occurring during phase 3 of action potential repolarisation or a depolarisation of greater than 3 mV amplitude during phase 4, frequently interrupted action potential recordings during, but not prior to, superfusion with ISO. Using a repetitive stimulation protocol, ISO at 0.05 µM produced spontaneous depolarisations in 5 of 7 cells studied (P< 0.05, chi-2 test). Endothelin-1 at 10 nM abolished these depolarisations in all 5 cells (P< 0.05). Superfusion with ET-1 (10 nM) alone was associated with spontaneous depolarisations in significantly fewer cells (P< 0.05, n=2 of 13 cells). In a retrospective univariate analysis, patient comorbidity and pre-operative drug therapy were not found to influence the electrophysiological effects observed. Conclusions: ET-1 reversed adrenergically induced increases in peak ICaL, APD50 and SDs in human atrial myocytes. This anti-adrenergic effect may be expected to influence the occurrence of AF in patients irrespective of comorbidity or pre-operative drug therapy

Relation between socioeconomic deprivation and death from a first myocardial infarction in Scotland: population based analysis

No abstract available

Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution : A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Atrial cellular electrophysiological changes in patients with ventricular dysfunction may predispose to AF

&lt;b&gt;Background:&lt;/b&gt; Left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but the atrial cellular electrophysiological mechanisms in humans are unclear. Objective This study sought to investigate whether LVSD in patients who are in sinus rhythm (SR) is associated with atrial cellular electrophysiological changes that could predispose to AF. &lt;b&gt;Methods:&lt;/b&gt; Right atrial myocytes were obtained from 214 consenting patients in SR who were undergoing cardiac surgery. Action potentials or ion currents were measured using the whole-cell-patch clamp technique. &lt;b&gt;Results:&lt;/b&gt; The presence of moderate or severe LVSD was associated with a shortened atrial cellular effective refractory period (ERP) (209 ± 8 ms; 52 cells, 18 patients vs 233 ± 7 ms; 134 cells, 49 patients; P &#60;0.05); confirmed by multiple linear regression analysis. The left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was markedly lower in patients with moderate or severe LVSD (36% ± 4%, n = 15) than in those without LVSD (62% ± 2%, n = 31; P &#60;0.05). In cells from patients with LVEF ≤ 45%, the ERP and action potential duration at 90% repolarization were shorter than in those from patients with LVEF &#62; 45%, by 24% and 18%, respectively. The LVEF and ERP were positively correlated (r = 0.65, P &#60;0.05). The L-type calcium ion current, inward rectifier potassium ion current, and sustained outward ion current were unaffected by LVSD. The transient outward potassium ion current was decreased by 34%, with a positive shift in its activation voltage, and no change in its decay kinetics. &lt;b&gt;Conclusion:&lt;/b&gt; LVSD in patients in SR is independently associated with a shortening of the atrial cellular ERP, which may be expected to contribute to a predisposition to AF

National survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland

Objective: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland, UK. Design: Cross sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Setting: 53 primary care practices (307 741 patients). Subjects: 2186 adult patients with heart failure. Results: The prevalence of heart failure in Scotland was 7.1 in 1000, increasing with age to 90.1 in 1000 among patients 85 years. The incidence of heart failure was 2.0 in 1000, increasing with age to 22.4 in 1000 among patients 85 years. For older patients, consultation rates for heart failure equalled or exceeded those for angina and hypertension. Respiratory tract infection was the most common co-morbidity leading to consultation. Among men, 23% were prescribed a ß blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 46% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for women were 20% (p = 0.29 versus men), 7% (p = 0.02), and 34% (p &lt; 0.001). Among patients &lt; 75 years 26% were prescribed a &#946; blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 50% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for patients 75 years were 19% (p = 0.04 versus patients &lt; 75), 7% (p = 0.04), and 33% (p &lt; 0.001). Conclusions: Heart failure is a common condition, especially with advancing age. In the elderly, the community burden of heart failure is at least as great as that of angina or hypertension. The high rate of concomitant respiratory tract infection emphasises the need for strategies to immunise patients with heart failure against influenza and pneumococcal infection. Drugs proven to improve survival in heart failure are used less frequently for elderly patients and women

Intestinal epithelial cell-intrinsic deletion of Setd7 identifies role for developmental pathways in immunity to helminth infection

The intestine is a common site for a variety of pathogenic infections. Helminth infections continue to be major causes of disease worldwide, and are a significant burden on health care systems. Lysine methyltransferases are part of a family of novel attractive targets for drug discovery. SETD7 is a member of the Suppressor of variegation 3-9-Enhancer of zeste-Trithorax (SET) domain-containing family of lysine methyltransferases, and has been shown to methylate and alter the function of a wide variety of proteins in vitro. A few of these putative methylation targets have been shown to be important in resistance against pathogens. We therefore sought to study the role of SETD7 during parasitic infections. We find that Setd7-/- mice display increased resistance to infection with the helminth Trichuris muris but not Heligmosomoides polygyrus bakeri. Resistance to T. muris relies on an appropriate type 2 immune response that in turn prompts intestinal epithelial cells (IECs) to alter differentiation and proliferation kinetics. Here we show that SETD7 does not affect immune cell responses during infection. Instead, we found that IEC-specific deletion of Setd7 renders mice resistant to T. muris by controlling IEC turnover, an important aspect of anti-helminth immune responses. We further show that SETD7 controls IEC turnover by modulating developmental signaling pathways such as Hippo/YAP and Wnt/β-Catenin. We show that the Hippo pathway specifically is relevant during T. muris infection as verteporfin (a YAP inhibitor) treated mice became susceptible to T. muris. We conclude that SETD7 plays an important role in IEC biology during infection

Post-operative atrial fibrillation is influenced by beta-blocker therapy but not by pre-operative atrial cellular electrophysiology

We investigated whether post-cardiac surgery (CS) new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) is predicted by pre-CS atrial cellular electrophysiology, and whether the antiarrhythmic effect of beta-blocker therapy may involve pre-CS pharmacological remodeling. Atrial myocytes were obtained from consenting patients in sinus rhythm, just prior to CS. Action potentials and ion currents were recorded using whole-cell patch-clamp technique. Post-CS AF occurred in 53 of 212 patients (25%). Those with post-CS AF were older than those without (67 ± 2 vs 62 ± 1 years, P = 0.005). In cells from patients with post-CS AF, the action potential duration at 50% and 90% repolarization, maximum upstroke velocity, and effective refractory period (ERP) were 13 ± 4 ms, 217 ± 16 ms, 185 ± 10 V/s, and 216 ± 14 ms, respectively (n = 30 cells, 11 patients). Peak L-type Ca2+ current, transient outward and inward rectifier K+ currents, and the sustained outward current were −5.0 ± 0.5, 12.9 ± 2.4, −4.1 ± 0.4, and 9.7 ± 1.0 pA/pF, respectively (13-62 cells, 7-19 patients). None of these values were significantly different in cells from patients without post-CS AF (P > 0.05 for each, 60-279 cells, 29-86 patients), confirmed by multiple and logistic regression. In patients treated >7 days with a beta-blocker pre-CS, the incidence of post-CS AF was lower than in non-beta-blocked patients (13% vs 27%, P = 0.038). Pre-CS beta-blockade was associated with a prolonged pre-CS atrial cellular ERP (P = 0.001), by a similar degree (∼20%) in those with and without post-CS AF. Conclusion: Pre-CS human atrial cellular electrophysiology does not predict post-CS AF. Chronic beta-blocker therapy is associated with a reduced incidence of post-CS AF, unrelated to a pre-CS ERP-prolonging effect of this treatment