Early development and tuning of a global coupled cloud resolving model, and its fast response to increasing CO2

Since the dawn of functioning numerical dynamical atmosphere- and ocean models, their resolution has steadily increased, fed by an exponential growth in computational capabilities. However, because resolution of models is at all times limited by computational power a number of mostly small-scale or micro-scale processes have to be parameterised. Particularly those of atmospheric moist convection and ocean eddies are problematic when scientists seek to interpret output from model experiments. Here we present the first coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments with sufficient resolution to dispose of moist convection and ocean eddy parameterisations. We describe the early development and discuss the challenges associated with conducting the simulations with a focus on tuning the global mean radiation balance in order to limit drifts. A four-month experiment with quadrupled CO2 is then compared with a ten-member ensemble of low-resolution simulations using MPI-ESM1.2-LR. We find broad similarities of the response, albeit with a more diversified spatial pattern with both stronger and weaker regional warming, as well as a sharpening of precipitation in the inter tropical convergence zone. These early results demonstrate that it is already now possible to learn from such coupled model experiments, even if short by nature

Genome-wide meta-analysis in alopecia areata resolves HLA associations and reveals two new susceptibility loci

Alopecia areata (AA) is a prevalent autoimmune disease with 10 known susceptibility loci. Here we perform the first meta-analysis of research on AA by combining data from two genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and replication with supplemented ImmunoChip data for a total of 3,253 cases and 7,543 controls. The strongest region of association is the major histocompatibility complex, where we fine-map four independent effects, all implicating human leukocyte antigen-DR as a key aetiologic driver. Outside the major histocompatibility complex, we identify two novel loci that exceed the threshold of statistical significance, containing ACOXL/BCL2L11(BIM) (2q13); GARP (LRRC32) (11q13.5), as well as a third nominally significant region SH2B3(LNK)/ATXN2 (12q24.12). Candidate susceptibility gene expression analysis in these regions demonstrates expression in relevant immune cells and the hair follicle. We integrate our results with data from seven other autoimmune diseases and provide insight into the alignment of AA within these disorders. Our findings uncover new molecular pathways disrupted in AA, including autophagy/apoptosis, transforming growth factor beta/Tregs and JAK kinase signalling, and support the causal role of aberrant immune processes in AA

Computational approaches to understanding protein aggregation in neurodegeneration

The generation of toxic non-native protein conformers has emerged as a unifying thread among disorders such as Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Atomic-level detail regarding dynamical changes that facilitate protein aggregation, as well as the structural features of large-scale ordered aggregates and soluble non-native oligomers, would contribute significantly to current understanding of these complex phenomena and offer potential strategies for inhibiting formation of cytotoxic species. However, experimental limitations often preclude the acquisition of high-resolution structural and mechanistic information for aggregating systems. Computational methods, particularly those combine both all-atom and coarse-grained simulations to cover a wide range of time and length scales, have thus emerged as crucial tools for investigating protein aggregation. Here we review the current state of computational methodology for the study of protein self-assembly, with a focus on the application of these methods toward understanding of protein aggregates in human neurodegenerative disorders

Zircon ages in granulite facies rocks: decoupling from geochemistry above 850 °C?

Granulite facies rocks frequently show a large spread in their zircon ages, the interpretation of which raises questions: Has the isotopic system been disturbed? By what process(es) and conditions did the alteration occur? Can the dates be regarded as real ages, reflecting several growth episodes? Furthermore, under some circumstances of (ultra-)high-temperature metamorphism, decoupling of zircon U–Pb dates from their trace element geochemistry has been reported. Understanding these processes is crucial to help interpret such dates in the context of the P–T history. Our study presents evidence for decoupling in zircon from the highest grade metapelites (> 850 °C) taken along a continuous high-temperature metamorphic field gradient in the Ivrea Zone (NW Italy). These rocks represent a well-characterised segment of Permian lower continental crust with a protracted high-temperature history. Cathodoluminescence images reveal that zircons in the mid-amphibolite facies preserve mainly detrital cores with narrow overgrowths. In the upper amphibolite and granulite facies, preserved detrital cores decrease and metamorphic zircon increases in quantity. Across all samples we document a sequence of four rim generations based on textures. U–Pb dates, Th/U ratios and Ti-in-zircon concentrations show an essentially continuous evolution with increasing metamorphic grade, except in the samples from the granulite facies, which display significant scatter in age and chemistry. We associate the observed decoupling of zircon systematics in high-grade non-metamict zircon with disturbance processes related to differences in behaviour of non-formula elements (i.e. Pb, Th, U, Ti) at high-temperature conditions, notably differences in compatibility within the crystal structure

The North Atlantic subpolar gyre in four high resolution models

The authors present the first quantitative comparison between new velocity datasets and high-resolution models in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre [1/10° Parallel Ocean Program model (POPNA10), Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM), ° Atlantic model (ATL6), and Family of Linked Atlantic Ocean Model Experiments (FLAME)]. At the surface, the model velocities agree generally well with World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) drifter data. Two noticeable exceptions are the weakness of the East Greenland coastal current in models and the presence in the surface layers of a strong southwestward East Reykjanes Ridge Current. At depths, the most prominent feature of the circulation is the boundary current following the continental slope. In this narrow flow, it is found that gridded float datasets cannot be used for a quantitative comparison with models. The models have very different patterns of deep convection, and it is suggested that this could be related to the differences in their barotropic transport at Cape Farewell. Models show a large drift in watermass properties with a salinization of the Labrador Sea Water. The authors believe that the main cause is related to horizontal transports of salt because models with different forcing and vertical mixing share the same salinization problem. A remarkable feature of the model solutions is the large westward transport over Reykjanes Ridge [10 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) or more

The ICON Earth System Model Version 1.0

This work documents ICON-ESM 1.0, the first version of a coupled model based 19 on the ICON framework 20 • Performance of ICON-ESM is assessed by means of CMIP6 DECK experiments 21 at standard CMIP-type resolution 22 • ICON-ESM reproduces the observed temperature evolution. Biases in clouds, winds, 23 sea-ice, and ocean properties are larger than in MPI-ESM. Abstract 25 This work documents the ICON-Earth System Model (ICON-ESM V1.0), the first cou-26 pled model based on the ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) framework with its un-27 structured, icosahedral grid concept. The ICON-A atmosphere uses a nonhydrostatic dy-28 namical core and the ocean model ICON-O builds on the same ICON infrastructure, but 29 applies the Boussinesq and hydrostatic approximation and includes a sea-ice model. The 30 ICON-Land module provides a new framework for the modelling of land processes and 31 the terrestrial carbon cycle. The oceanic carbon cycle and biogeochemistry are repre-32 sented by the Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle module. We describe the tuning and spin-33 up of a base-line version at a resolution typical for models participating in the Coupled 34 Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The performance of ICON-ESM is assessed by 35 means of a set of standard CMIP6 simulations. Achievements are well-balanced top-of-36 atmosphere radiation, stable key climate quantities in the control simulation, and a good 37 representation of the historical surface temperature evolution. The model has overall bi-38 ases, which are comparable to those of other CMIP models, but ICON-ESM performs 39 less well than its predecessor, the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model. Problem-40 atic biases are diagnosed in ICON-ESM in the vertical cloud distribution and the mean 41 zonal wind field. In the ocean, sub-surface temperature and salinity biases are of con-42 cern as is a too strong seasonal cycle of the sea-ice cover in both hemispheres. ICON-43 ESM V1.0 serves as a basis for further developments that will take advantage of ICON-44 specific properties such as spatially varying resolution, and configurations at very high 45 resolution. 46 Plain Language Summary 47 ICON-ESM is a completely new coupled climate and earth system model that ap-48 plies novel design principles and numerical techniques. The atmosphere model applies 49 a non-hydrostatic dynamical core, both atmosphere and ocean models apply unstruc-50 tured meshes, and the model is adapted for high-performance computing systems. This 51 article describes how the component models for atmosphere, land, and ocean are cou-52 pled together and how we achieve a stable climate by setting certain tuning parameters 53 and performing sensitivity experiments. We evaluate the performance of our new model 54 by running a set of experiments under pre-industrial and historical climate conditions 55 as well as a set of idealized greenhouse-gas-increase experiments. These experiments were 56 designed by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and allow us to com-57 pare the results to those from other CMIP models and the predecessor of our model, the 58 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model. While we diagnose overall 59 satisfactory performance, we find that ICON-ESM features somewhat larger biases in 60 several quantities compared to its predecessor at comparable grid resolution. We empha-61 size that the present configuration serves as a basis from where future development steps 62 will open up new perspectives in earth system modellin

Mortality by age, gene and gender in carriers of pathogenic mismatch repair gene variants receiving surveillance for early cancer diagnosis and treatment: a report from the prospective Lynch syndrome database

BACKGROUND: The Prospective Lynch Syndrome Database (PLSD) collates information on carriers of pathogenic or likely pathogenic MMR variants (path_MMR) who are receiving medical follow-up, including colonoscopy surveillance, which aims to the achieve early diagnosis and treatment of cancers. Here we use the most recent PLSD cohort that is larger and has wider geographical representation than previous versions, allowing us to present mortality as an outcome, and median ages at cancer diagnoses for the first time. METHODS: The PLSD is a prospective observational study without a control group that was designed in 2012 and updated up to October 2022. Data for 8500 carriers of path_MMR variants from 25 countries were included, providing 71,713 years of follow up. Cumulative cancer incidences at 65 years of age were combined with 10-year crude survival following cancer, to derive estimates of mortality up to 75 years of age by organ, gene, and gender. FINDINGS: Gynaecological cancers were more frequent than colorectal cancers in path_MSH2, path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 53.3%, 49.6% and 23.3% at 75 years, respectively]. Endometrial, colon and ovarian cancer had low mortality [8%, 13% and 15%, respectively] and prostate cancers were frequent in male path_MSH2 carriers [cumulative incidence: 39.7% at 75 years]. Pancreatic, brain, biliary tract and ureter and kidney and urinary bladder cancers were associated with high mortality [83%, 66%, 58%, 27%, and 29%, respectively]. Among path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, particularly path_MSH2 carriers, more deaths followed non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers than colorectal cancers. INTERPRETATION: In path_MMR carriers undergoing colonoscopy surveillance, non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were associated with more deaths than were colorectal cancers. Reducing deaths from non-colorectal cancers presents a key challenge in contemporary medical care in Lynch syndrome. FUNDING: We acknowledge funding from the Norwegian Cancer Society, contract 194751-2017