Understanding Copepod Life-History and Diversity using a Next-Generation Zooplankton Model

The main goal of our project is to understand the patterns of diversity and biogeography in marine copepods. To achieve this goal, we developed a unique modeling framework to simulate the trade-offs between growth, development, and fecundity in marine copepods. We developed a new approach to modeling growth and development in metazoans. We applied this approach to marine copepods, and used it to understand relationships between copepod body size and temperature, copepod biodiversity patterns, and copepod biogeography. This project also provided support for experiments to look at how copepod body size impacts the particle size spectrum. We used our model to explain why marine copepods and other organisms with strong associations between body size and temperature should be expected to deviate from the temperature-diversity relationship that emerges from classic metabolic theory. We also used a novel emergent modeling approach to explore how temperature and chlorophyll cycles influence copepod biogeography

Century-scale changes in phytoplankton phenology in the Gulf of Maine

The phenology of major seasonal events is an important indicator of climate. We analyzed multiple datasets of in situ chlorophyll measurements from the Gulf of Maine dating back to the early 20th century in order to detect climate-scale changes in phenology. The seasonal cycle was consistently characterized by a two-bloom pattern, with spring and autumn blooms. The timing of both spring and autumn blooms has shifted later in the year at rates ranging from ∼1 to 9 days per decade since 1960, depending on the phenology metric, and trends only emerged at time scales of >40 years. Bloom phenology had only weak correlations with major climate indices. There were stronger associations between bloom timing and physical and chemical variables. Autumn bloom initiation correlated strongly with surface temperature and salinity, and spring bloom with nutrients. A later spring bloom also correlated with an increased cohort of Calanus finmarchicus, suggesting broader ecosystem implications of phytoplankton phenology

Rapid Climate-Driven Circulation Changes Threaten Conservation of Endangered North Atlantic Right Whales

As climate trends accelerate, ecosystems will be pushed rapidly into new states, reducing the potential efficacy of conservation strategies based on historical patterns. In the Gulf of Maine, climate-driven changes have restructured the ecosystem rapidly over the past decade. Changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation have altered deepwater dynamics, driving warming rates twice as high as the fastest surface rates. This has had implications for the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a critical food supply for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). The oceanographic changes have driven a deviation in the seasonal foraging patterns of E. glacialis upon which conservation strategies depend, making the whales more vulnerable to ship strikes and gear entanglements. The effects of rapid climate-driven changes on a species at risk undermine current management approaches

Report on the “Trait-based approaches to ocean life” scoping workshop, October 5-8, 2015

"Trait-based Approaches to Ocean Life” Scoping Workshop, October 5-8, 2015, Waterville Valley, NH, USAFrom the introduction: Marine ecosystems are rich and biodiverse, often populated by thousands of competing and interacting species with a vast range of behaviors, forms, and life histories. This great ecological complexity presents a formidable challenge to understanding how marine ecosystems are structured and controlled, but also how they respond to natural and anthropogenic changes. The trait-based approach to ocean life is emerging as a novel framework for understanding the complexity, structure, and dynamics of marine ecosystems, but also their broader significance. Rather than considering species individually, organisms are characterized by essential traits that capture key aspects of diversity. Trait distributions in the ocean emerge through evolution and natural selection, and are mediated by the environment, biological interactions, anthropogenic drivers, and organism behavior. Because trait variations within and across communities lead to variation in the rates of crucial ecosystem functions such as carbon export, this mechanistic approach sheds light on how variability in the environment, including climate change, impacts marine ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and associated feedbacks to climate and society.Funding from the National Science Foundation and National Aeronautics and Space Administration), the Simons Foundation, and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation

Education in the working-class home: modes of learning as revealed by nineteenth-century criminal records

The transmission of knowledge and skills within the working-class household greatly troubled social commentators and social policy experts during the first half of the nineteenth century. To prove theories which related criminality to failures in working-class up-bringing, experts and officials embarked upon an ambitious collection of data on incarcerated criminals at various penal institutions. One such institution was the County Gaol at Ipswich. The exceptionally detailed information that survives on families, literacy, education and apprenticeships of the men, women and children imprisoned there has the potential to transform our understanding of the nature of home schooling (broadly interpreted) amongst the working classes in nineteenth-century England. This article uses data sets from prison registers to chart both the incidence and ‘success’ of instruction in reading and writing within the domestic environment. In the process, it highlights the importance of schooling in working-class families, but also the potentially growing significance of the family in occupational training

Seasonal Phytoplankton Blooms in the North Atlantic Linked to the Overwintering Strategies of Copepods

The North Atlantic Ocean contains diverse patterns of seasonal phytoplankton blooms with distinct internal dynamics. We analyzed blooms using remotely-sensed chlorophyll a concentration data and change point statistics. The first bloom of the year began during spring at low latitudes and later in summer at higher latitudes. In regions where spring blooms occurred at high frequency (i. e., proportion of years that a bloom was detected), there was a negative correlation between bloom timing and duration, indicating that early blooms last longer. In much of the Northeast Atlantic, bloom development extended over multiple seasons resulting in peak chlorophyll concentrations in summer. Spring bloom start day was found to be positively correlated with a spring phenology index and showed both positive and negative correlations to sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation in different regions. Based on the characteristics of spring and summer blooms, the North Atlantic can be classified into two regions: a seasonal bloom region, with a well-defined bloom limited to a single season; and a multi-seasonal bloom region, with blooms extending over multiple seasons. These regions differed in the correlation between bloom start and duration with only the seasonal bloom region showing a significant, negative correlation. We tested the hypothesis that the near-surface springtime distribution of copepods that undergo diapause (Calanus finmarchicus, C. helgolandicus, C. glacialis, and C. hyperboreus) may contribute to the contrast in bloom development between the two regions. Peak near-surface spring abundance of the late stages of these Calanoid copepods was generally associated with areas having a well-defined seasonal bloom, implying a link between bloom shape and their abundance. We suggest that either grazing is a factor in shaping the seasonal bloom or bloom shape determines whether a habitat is conducive to diapause, while recognizing that both factors can re-enforce each other

Seasonal Phytoplankton Blooms in the North Atlantic Linked to the Overwintering Strategies of Copepods

The North Atlantic Ocean contains diverse patterns of seasonal phytoplankton blooms with distinct internal dynamics. We analyzed blooms using remotely-sensed chlorophyll a concentration data and change point statistics. The first bloom of the year began during spring at low latitudes and later in summer at higher latitudes. In regions where spring blooms occurred at high frequency (i. e., proportion of years that a bloom was detected), there was a negative correlation between bloom timing and duration, indicating that early blooms last longer. In much of the Northeast Atlantic, bloom development extended over multiple seasons resulting in peak chlorophyll concentrations in summer. Spring bloom start day was found to be positively correlated with a spring phenology index and showed both positive and negative correlations to sea surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation in different regions. Based on the characteristics of spring and summer blooms, the North Atlantic can be classified into two regions: a seasonal bloom region, with a well-defined bloom limited to a single season; and a multi-seasonal bloom region, with blooms extending over multiple seasons. These regions differed in the correlation between bloom start and duration with only the seasonal bloom region showing a significant, negative correlation. We tested the hypothesis that the near-surface springtime distribution of copepods that undergo diapause (Calanus finmarchicus, C. helgolandicus, C. glacialis, and C. hyperboreus) may contribute to the contrast in bloom development between the two regions. Peak near-surface spring abundance of the late stages of these Calanoid copepods was generally associated with areas having a well-defined seasonal bloom, implying a link between bloom shape and their abundance. We suggest that either grazing is a factor in shaping the seasonal bloom or bloom shape determines whether a habitat is conducive to diapause, while recognizing that both factors can re-enforce each other

Rapid climate-driven circulation changes threaten conservation of endangered north atlantic right whales

As climate trends accelerate, ecosystems will be pushed rapidly into new states, reducing the potential efficacy of conservation strategies based on historical patterns. In the Gulf of Maine, climate-driven changes have restructured the ecosystem rapidly over the past decade. Changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation have altered deepwater dynamics, driving warming rates twice as high as the fastest surface rates. This has had implications for the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, a critical food supply for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). The oceanographic changes have driven a deviation in the seasonal foraging patterns of E. glacialis upon which conservation strategies depend, making the whales more vulnerable to ship strikes and gear entanglements. The effects of rapid climate-driven changes on a species at risk undermine current management approaches.publishedVersio

It's about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Staudinger, M. D., Mills, K. E., Stamieszkin, K., Record, N. R., Hudak, C. A., Allyn, A., Diamond, A., Friedland, K. D., Golet, W., Henderson, M. E., Hernandez, C. M., Huntington, T. G., Ji, R., Johnson, C. L., Johnson, D. S., Jordaan, A., Kocik, J., Li, Y., Liebman, M., Nichols, O. C., Pendleton, D., Richards, R. A., Robben, T., Thomas, A. C., Walsh, H. J., & Yakola, K. It's about time: A synthesis of changing phenology in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Fisheries Oceanography, 28(5), (2019): 532-566, doi: 10.1111/fog.12429.The timing of recurring biological and seasonal environmental events is changing on a global scale relative to temperature and other climate drivers. This study considers the Gulf of Maine ecosystem, a region of high social and ecological importance in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and synthesizes current knowledge of (a) key seasonal processes, patterns, and events; (b) direct evidence for shifts in timing; (c) implications of phenological responses for linked ecological‐human systems; and (d) potential phenology‐focused adaptation strategies and actions. Twenty studies demonstrated shifts in timing of regional marine organisms and seasonal environmental events. The most common response was earlier timing, observed in spring onset, spring and winter hydrology, zooplankton abundance, occurrence of several larval fishes, and diadromous fish migrations. Later timing was documented for fall onset, reproduction and fledging in Atlantic puffins, spring and fall phytoplankton blooms, and occurrence of additional larval fishes. Changes in event duration generally increased and were detected in zooplankton peak abundance, early life history periods of macro‐invertebrates, and lobster fishery landings. Reduced duration was observed in winter–spring ice‐affected stream flows. Two studies projected phenological changes, both finding diapause duration would decrease in zooplankton under future climate scenarios. Phenological responses were species‐specific and varied depending on the environmental driver, spatial, and temporal scales evaluated. Overall, a wide range of baseline phenology and relevant modeling studies exist, yet surprisingly few document long‐term shifts. Results reveal a need for increased emphasis on phenological shifts in the Gulf of Maine and identify opportunities for future research and consideration of phenological changes in adaptation efforts.This work was supported by the Department of the Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (G14AC00441) for MDS, AJ, and KY; the National Science Foundation's Coastal SEES Program (OCE‐1325484) for KEM, ACT, MEH, and AA; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX16 AG59G) for ACT, KEM, NRR, and KSS; the USGS Climate Research and Development Program for TGH; National Science & Engineering Research Council of Canada, University of New Brunswick, Environment Canada, Sir James Dunn Wildlife Research Centre, and New Brunswick Wildlife Trust Fund for AD. We also thank the Regional Association for Research on the Gulf of Maine for support, and the Gulf of Maine Research Institute for hosting and providing in kind resources for a two day in‐person workshop in August 2016. We greatly appreciate contributions from K. Alexander, G. Calandrino, C. Feurt, I. Mlsna, N. Rebuck, J. Seavey, and J. Sun for helping shape the initial scope of the manuscript. We thank J. Weltzin and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. The contents of this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Fisheries and Oceans Canada or the US Environmental Protection Agency. This manuscript is submitted for publication with the understanding that the United States Government is authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Governmental purposes. None of the authors have conflicts of interest to declare in association with the contents of this manuscript

The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory

Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short- and long-term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized. Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis. Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales. We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight