Impact of antiretroviral therapy on adult HIV prevalence in a low-income rural setting in Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the contribution to HIV prevalence of lives saved due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural Uganda in 2004. DESIGN: Open population-based cohort study. METHODS: An open general population cohort with annual demographic and HIV serostatus data is used to estimate annual HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2010. We calculated standardized mortality rates among HIV-positive adults and the expected number of deaths in the cohort if ART had not been available during 2004-2010, based on the average mortality rate in the 4 years (2000-2003) before ART introduction. RESULTS: During 2004-2010, the estimated prevalence increased by 29% from 6.9% to 8.9%. HIV incidence was 5.6 cases per 1000 person-years in 2004, falling to 3.9 cases per 1000 person-years in 2006, and slightly rising to 5.1 in 2010. There was an increase of 182 in the number of HIV-positive participants during that period, cumulatively 228 lives were saved due to ART. Expected lives saved due to ART accounted for an increasing proportion of the estimated HIV prevalence from 4.0% in 2004 to 29.4% in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: Expected lives saved due to ART largely accounted for the increased estimated HIV prevalence from 2004 to 2010. Because HIV prevalence survey results are important for planning, programming, and policy, their interpretation requires consideration of the increasing impact of ART in decreasing mortality

HIV Combination Prevention study - Data at months 0, 9 and 15

Dataset and supporting documentation collected as part of the HIV combination prevention study, a cluster randomised trial investigating the feasibility of conducting HIV combination prevention interventions in fishing communities in Uganda. The dataset contains participant-provided responses including condom use, HIV prevention practices, and intervention take-up

Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference), and blood sampling for non fasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol), was categorised as low risk (0.24). Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD± 20.2). Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results

Feasibility of conducting HIV combination prevention interventions in fishing communities in Uganda : A pilot cluster randomised trial

Objective We assessed feasibility of an HIV-combination-prevention trial among fishing communities in Uganda. Design Cluster randomised trial in four fishing communities on Lake Victoria, Uganda. Two intervention communities received a combination-prevention-package (behaviour change communication, condom promotion, HIV testing, voluntary male medical circumcision and referral for anti-retroviral therapy if HIV-positive). All four communities received routine government HIV care services. Methods Using household census data we randomly selected a cohort of consenting residents aged 18 years. A baseline sero-survey in July 2014 was followed by two repeat surveys in March and December 2015. We measured uptake of HIV prevention methods, loss-to-follow-up and HIV incidence, accounting for multistage survey design. Results A total of 862 participants were enrolled and followed for 15 months. Participation was 62% and 74% in the control and intervention arms respectively; Overall loss to follow up (LTFU) was 21.6% and was similar by arm. Self-reported abstinence/faithfulness increased between baseline and endline in both arms from 53% to 73% in the control arm, and 55% to 67% in the intervention arm. Reported condom use throughout the study period was 36% in the intervention arm vs 28% in the control arm; number of male participants reporting cir-cumsicion in both arms from 58% to 79% in the intervention arm, and 39% to 46% in the control arm. Independent baseline predictors of loss-to-follow-up were: being HIV positive, residence in the community for 1 month/year Conclusions Recruitment and retention of participants in longitudinal trials in highly mobile HIV fishing communities is challenging. Future research should investigate modes for locating and retaining participants, and delivery of HIV-combination prevention

Effect of HIV-1 subtypes on disease progression in rural Uganda: a prospective clinical cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the association of HIV-1 subtypes with disease progression based on three viral gene regions. DESIGN: A prospective HIV-1 clinical cohort study in rural Uganda. METHODS: Partial gag, env and pol genes were sequenced. Cox proportional hazard regression modelling was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of progression to: CD4≤250, AIDS onset and death, adjusted for sex, age and CD4 count at enrolment. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2010, 292 incident cases were subtyped: 25% had subtype A, 45% had D, 26% had A/D recombinants, 1% had C and 4% were other recombinant forms. Of the 278 incident cases included in the disease progression analysis, 62% progressed to CD4≤250, 32% to AIDS, and 34% died with a higher proportion being among subtype D cases. The proportions of individuals progressing to the three endpoints were significantly higher among individuals infected with subtype D. Throughout the study period, individuals infected with subtype D progressed faster to CD4≤250, adjusted HR (aHR), (95% CI) = 1.72 (1.16-2.54), but this was mainly due to events in the period before antiretroviral therapy (ART) introduction, when individuals infected with subtype D significantly progressed faster to CD4≤250 than subtype A cases; aHR (95% CI) = 1.78 (1.01-3.14). CONCLUSIONS: In this population, HIV-1 subtype D was the most prevalent and was associated with faster HIV-1 disease progression than subtype A. Further studies are needed to examine the effect of HIV-1 subtypes on disease progression in the ART period and their effect on the virological and immunological ART outcomes

Prevalence of high blood pressure and associated factors among adolescents and young people in Tanzania and Uganda.

We conducted a cross-sectional study among school/college students in Tanzania and Uganda to determine the prevalence of high blood pressure (BP) and associated factors. Participants were classified to have high BP if they had pre-hypertension or hypertension. Interviews were done using the WHO STEPS instrument. Using data from both countries (n = 1596), the overall prevalence of high BP was 40% (95% CI: 37-42). The prevalence of pre-hypertension was 29% (95% CI: 26-31) and that of hypertension was 11% (95% CI: 10-13). High BP was independently associated with obesity (aOR = 6.7, 95% CI: 2.2-20.0), male sex (aOR = 3.2, 95% CI: 2.4-4.4), and among males aged above 20 years (aOR = 5.5, 95% CI: 2.9-10.5). Consumption of fruits/vegetables was associated with decreased odds for high BP (aOR = 0.7, 95% CI: 0.50-0.98). The increasing burden of pre-hypertension across age groups could explain the early onset of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) among young African adults. There is a need for longitudinal studies to explore the drivers of pre-hypertension in East African adolescents

Modelling the impact of combining HIV prevention interventions on HIV dynamics in fishing communities in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: In countries with mature generalized HIV epidemics such as Uganda, there are still groups of individuals that are disproportionately affected. Among the key populations in Uganda are fishing communities, which make up about 10% of the population. Compared to the general population, HIV prevalence and incidence among individuals living in these communities is high. This high HIV burden has been attributed to several factors including limited access to prevention and treatment services as well as ongoing high-risk sexual behaviour. METHODS: We investigated the impact of combined HIV prevention interventions on HIV transmission dynamics in high-risk fishing communities in Uganda using a deterministic compartmental model. The model was calibrated to seroprevalence data from a census performed in 2014. To account for remaining uncertainty in the calibrated model parameters, 50 000 simulated scenarios were modelled to investigate the impact of combined prevention interventions. RESULTS: The projected HIV incidence decreased from 1.87 per 100 PY without intervention scale-up to 0.25 per 100 PY after 15 years (2014-2029) of intervention scale-up. A potential combination achieving this 87% reduction in incidence over 15 years in Ugandan FCs included condom use in about 60% of sexual acts, 23% of susceptible men circumcised, 87% of people living with HIV aware of their status, 75% of those on ART, and about 3% of susceptible individuals on oral PrEP. Uncertainty analysis revealed relative reductions in incidence ranging from 30.9 to 86.8%. Sensitivity analyses suggested that condom use and early ART were the most important interventions. CONCLUSION: Reducing HIV incidence, as well as prevalence and AIDS-related mortality, in these high-risk fishing communities in Uganda is attainable over 15 years with a combination prevention package. Our projected intervention coverage levels are well within the national targets set by the Uganda government and enable coming close to reaching the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS calls for fewer than 500,000 new HIV infections/year by 2020, with treatment-as-prevention being a key part of their strategy for achieving the target. A better understanding of the contribution to transmission of people at different stages of the care pathway can help focus intervention services at populations where they may have the greatest effect. We investigate this using Uganda as a case study. METHODS: An individual-based HIV/ART model was fitted using history matching. 100 model fits were generated to account for uncertainties in sexual behaviour, HIV epidemiology, and ART coverage up to 2015 in Uganda. A number of different ART scale-up intervention scenarios were simulated between 2016 and 2030. The incidence and proportion of transmission over time from people with primary infection, post-primary ART-naïve infection, and people currently or previously on ART was calculated. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the proportion of transmission by ART-naïve people decreases, from 70% (61%-79%) in 2015 to between 23% (15%-40%) and 47% (35%-61%) in 2030. The proportion of transmission by people on ART increases from 7.8% (3.5%-13%) to between 14% (7.0%-24%) and 38% (21%-55%). The proportion of transmission by ART dropouts increases from 22% (15%-33%) to between 31% (23%-43%) and 56% (43%-70%). CONCLUSIONS: People who are currently or previously on ART are likely to play an increasingly large role in transmission as ART coverage increases in Uganda. Improving retention on ART, and ensuring that people on ART remain virally suppressed, will be key in reducing HIV incidence in Uganda

Phylogenetic Networks and Parameters Inferred from HIV Nucleotide Sequences of High-Risk and General Population Groups in Uganda:Implications for Epidemic Control

Phylogenetic inference is useful in characterising HIV transmission networks and assessing where prevention is likely to have the greatest impact. However, estimating parameters that influence the network structure is still scarce, but important in evaluating determinants of HIV spread. We analyzed 2017 HIV pol sequences (728 Lake Victoria fisherfolk communities (FFCs), 592 female sex workers (FSWs) and 697 general population (GP)) to identify transmission networks on Maximum Likelihood (ML) phylogenetic trees and refined them using time-resolved phylogenies. Network generative models were fitted to the observed degree distributions and network parameters, and corrected Akaike Information Criteria and Bayesian Information Criteria values were estimated. 347 (17.2%) HIV sequences were linked on ML trees (maximum genetic distance ≤4.5%, ≥95% bootstrap support) and, of these, 303 (86.7%) that consisted of pure A1 (n = 168) and D (n = 135) subtypes were analyzed in BEAST v1.8.4. The majority of networks (at least 40%) were found at a time depth of ≤5 years. The waring and yule models fitted best networks of FFCs and FSWs respectively while the negative binomial model fitted best networks in the GP. The network structure in the HIV-hyperendemic FFCs is likely to be scale-free and shaped by preferential attachment, in contrast to the GP. The findings support the targeting of interventions for FFCs in a timely manner for effective epidemic control. Interventions ought to be tailored according to the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in the target population and understanding the network structure is critical in ensuring the success of HIV prevention programs