Choosing the devil you don’t know : evidence for limited sensitivity to sample-size based uncertainty when it offers an advantage

Many decision makers seek to optimize choices between uncertain options such as strategies, employees, or products. When performance targets must be met, attending to observed past performance is not enough to optimize choices—option uncertainty must also be considered. For example, for stretch targets that exceed observed performance, more uncertain options are often better bets. A significant determinant of option uncertainty is sample size: for a given option, the smaller the sample of information we have about it, the greater the uncertainty. In two studies, choices were made between pairs of uncertain options with the goal of exceeding a specified performance target. Information about the options differed in the size of the sample drawn from them, sample size, and the observed performance of those samples, the proportion of successes or “hits” in the sample. We found people to be sensitive to sample size–based uncertainty only when differences in observed performance were negligible. We conclude that in the presence of performance targets, people largely fail to capitalize on the value advantages of small samples in the presence of stretch targets

Recent Developments: The Uniform Arbitration Act

Since 1983, this annual Article 2 has been prepared to provide a survey of recent developments in the case law interpreting and applying the various state versions of the Uniform Arbitration Act3. The purpose is to promote uniformity in the interpretation of the U.A.A. by developing and explaining the underlying principles and rationales courts have applied in recent cases.

Dark matter annihilation and decay in dwarf spheroidal galaxies: The classical and ultrafaint dSphs

Dwarf spheroidal (dSph) galaxies are prime targets for present and future gamma-ray telescopes hunting for indirect signals of particle dark matter. The interpretation of the data requires careful assessment of their dark matter content in order to derive robust constraints on candidate relic particles. Here, we use an optimised spherical Jeans analysis to reconstruct the `astrophysical factor' for both annihilating and decaying dark matter in 21 known dSphs. Improvements with respect to previous works are: (i) the use of more flexible luminosity and anisotropy profiles to minimise biases, (ii) the use of weak priors tailored on extensive sets of contamination-free mock data to improve the confidence intervals, (iii) systematic cross-checks of binned and unbinned analyses on mock and real data, and (iv) the use of mock data including stellar contamination to test the impact on reconstructed signals. Our analysis provides updated values for the dark matter content of 8 `classical' and 13 `ultrafaint' dSphs, with the quoted uncertainties directly linked to the sample size; the more flexible parametrisation we use results in changes compared to previous calculations. This translates into our ranking of potentially-brightest and most robust targets---viz., Ursa Minor, Draco, Sculptor---, and of the more promising, but uncertain targets---viz., Ursa Major 2, Coma---for annihilating dark matter. Our analysis of Segue 1 is extremely sensitive to whether we include or exclude a few marginal member stars, making this target one of the most uncertain. Our analysis illustrates challenges that will need to be addressed when inferring the dark matter content of new `ultrafaint' satellites that are beginning to be discovered in southern sky surveys.Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures, submitted to MNRAS. Supplementary material available on reques

Presence and abundance of microplastics in the Thames River Basin, UK

The global increase in plastic production has led to growing concern about the environmental impacts of plastics and their degradation products. Microplastics have been extensively observed and studied in the marine environment but little is known about their presence and abundance in freshwater environments. Although rivers are recognised as a significant source of microplastics to the oceans, they are seldom considered in studies of the environmental presence of microplastics and there are no data reported to date on microplastics in UK rivers (or indeed any freshwater bodies). This study aimed to identify and quantify the abundance and types of plastics in the Thames Basin where population densities and sewage inputs are well described. Ten sampling sites on the River Thames and its tributaries were selected, ranging from densely populated, urban areas to sparsely populated, rural areas. Sites are all downstream of sewage treatment works (STWs) serving known populations, allowing correlation between population density with plastic types and abundances found. In addition samples were collected from sites at known distances downstream of STW outfalls, as well as the effluent itself, to try and establish the proportion of plastics directly entering from STWs, and its fate and transport pathways. River sediment and water samples were collected at all sites. Sediment samples were initially searched by eye, followed by flotation and overflowing using ZnCl2 solution. Plastics collected from the sediments were subsequently identified by Raman spectroscopy. Initial observations indicate that coloured and manmade particles are obviously visible in sediments from sites with high population densities compared to few evident manmade particles in sediments from areas with low population densities. Further analysis will allow for correlation of the plastic types and abundance with population density and sewage inputs to understand the distribution of plastics in river systems

Periodic "stick-slip" transition within a continuum model for entangled supramolecular polymers

We investigate shear flow instabilities using a recently-derived constitutive law, designed for describing the rheology of entangled telechelic polymers. The continuum model displays shear banding, often accompanied by a strong elastic recoil in the transient response, which appears as an "apparent'" wall slip. For certain parameters, the model also displays a novel "apparent" stick-slip behavior, giving rise to strong nonlinear oscillations in the stress response driven by a repeating cycle of elastic recoil followed by diffusive rehomogenization of the flow. We elucidate the detailed mechanism behind this oscillatory response, demonstrating that it arises from a competition between shear-induced breaking of sticky bonds, which leads to recoil and banding, and a diffusive rehomogenization of the flow. We discuss the relation between the apparent stick-slip in our continuum model with similar behavior in "true" wall slip

Kondo Insulator: p-wave Bose Condensate of Excitons

In the Anderson lattice model for a mixed-valent system, the $d-f$ hybridization can possess a $p$-wave symmetry. The strongly-correlated insulating phase in the mean-field approximation is shown to be a $p$-wave Bose condensate of excitons with a spontaneous lattice deformation. We study the equilibrium and linear response properties across the insulator-metal transition. Our theory supports the empirical correlation between the lattice deformation and the magnetic susceptibility and predicts measurable ultrasonic and high-frequency phonon behavior in mixed-valent semiconductors.Comment: 5 pages, 3 encapsulated PostScript figure