Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in highincome countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return

Latent Tuberculosis in HIV positive, diagnosed by the M. Tuberculosis Specific Interferon-γ test

BACKGROUND: Although tuberculosis (TB) is a minor problem in Denmark, severe and complicated cases occur in HIV positive. Since the new M. tuberculosis specific test for latent TB, the QuantiFERON-TB In-Tube test (QFT-IT) became available the patients in our clinic have been screened for the presence of latent TB using the QFT-IT test. We here report the results from the first patients screened. METHODS: On a routine basis the QFT-IT test was performed and the results from 590 HIV positive individuals consecutively tested are presented here. CD4 cell count and TB risk-factors were recorded from patient files. MAIN FINDINGS: 27/590(4.6%) of the individuals were QFT-IT test positive, indicating the presence of latent TB infection. Among QFT-IT positive patients, 78% had risk factors such as long-term residency in a TB high endemic area (OR:5.7), known TB exposure (OR:4.9) or previous TB disease (OR:4.9). The prevalence of latent TB in these groups were 13%, 16% and 19% respectively. There was a strong correlation between low CD4 T-cell count and a low mitogen response (P < 0.001;Spearman) and more patients with low CD4 cell count had indeterminate results. CONCLUSION: We found an overall prevalence of latent TB infection of 4.6% among the HIV positive individuals and a much higher prevalence of latent infection among those with a history of exposure (16%) and long term residency in a high endemic country (13%). The QFT-IT test may indeed be a useful test for HIV positive individuals, but in severely immunocompromised, the test may be impaired by T-cell anergy

Incidence, risk factors and mortality of tuberculosis in Danish HIV patients 1995-2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection predisposes to tuberculosis (TB). We described incidence, risk factors and prognosis of TB in HIV-1 infected patients during pre (1995-1996), early (1997-1999), and late Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) (2000-2007) periods.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included patients from a population-based, multicenter, nationwide cohort. We calculated incidence rates (IRs) and mortality rates (MRs). Cox's regression analysis was used to estimate risk factors for TB infection with HAART initiation included as time updated variable. Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate mortality after TB.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 2,668 patients identified, 120 patients developed TB during the follow-up period. The overall IR was 8.2 cases of TB/1,000 person-years of follow-up (PYR). IRs decreased during the pre-, early and late-HAART periods (37.1/1000 PYR, 12.9/1000 PYR and 6.5/1000 PYR respectively). African and Asian origin, low CD4 cell count and heterosexual and injection drug user route of HIV transmission were risk factors for TB and start of HAART reduced the risk substantially. The overall MR in TB patients was 34.4 deaths per 1,000 PYR (95% Confidence Interval: 22.0-54.0) and was highest in the first two years after the diagnosis of TB.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Incidence of TB still associated with conventional risk factors as country of birth, low CD4 count and route of HIV infection while HAART reduces the risk substantially. The mortality in this patient population is high in the first two years after TB diagnosis.</p

QuantiFERON®-TB gold in-tube performance for diagnosing active tuberculosis in children and adults in a high burden setting.

To determine whether QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) can contribute to the diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB) in children in a high-burden setting and to assess the performance of QFT and tuberculin skin test (TST) in a prospective cohort of TB suspect children compared to adults with confirmed TB in Tanzania. Sensitivity and specificity of QFT and TST for diagnosing active TB as well as indeterminate QFT rates and IFN-γ levels were assessed in 211 TB suspect children in a Tanzanian district hospital and contrasted in 90 adults with confirmed pulmonary TB. Sensitivity of QFT and TST in children with confirmed TB was 19% (5/27) and 6% (2/31) respectively. In adults sensitivity of QFT and TST was 84% (73/87) and 85% (63/74). The QFT indeterminate rate in children and adults was 27% and 3%. Median levels of IFN-γ were lower in children than adults, particularly children <2 years and HIV infected. An indeterminate result was associated with age <2 years but not malnutrition or HIV status. Overall childhood mortality was 19% and associated with an indeterminate QFT result at baseline. QFT and TST showed poor performance and a surprisingly low sensitivity in children. In contrast the performance in Tanzanian adults was good and comparable to performance in high-income countries. Indeterminate results in children were associated with young age and increased mortality. Neither test can be recommended for diagnosing active TB in children with immature or impaired immunity in a high-burden setting