The relationship between age at first birth and mother\u27s lifetime earnings: Evidence from Danish data

Having children creates career interruptions and reductions in labor income for women. This study documents the relation between the age at first birth (AFB) and women's labor income. We study these dynamics in the short run (i.e. ratio between labor income at AFB and two years prior to AFB) and long run (i.e., positive/negative differences in total lifetime labor income).Using unique Danish administrative register data for the entire Danish population, we estimate the age-income profiles separately for college and non-college women conditional on marital status, and mothers' age at first birth (AFB). We compute the lifetime labor income differentials by taking the differences between the labor income of women with and without children at each AFB.The short-run loss in labor income, defined as the difference in percentages between the income earned two years prior to AFB and income earned at AFB, ranges from 37% to 65% for college women and from 40% to 53% for non-college women. These losses decrease monotonically with respect to AFB for both education groups. Our results on the lifetime labor income differentials between mothers and women without children also show a net effect that is monotonic (from negative to positive) in AFB. With AFB31. The largest gains for college women are 13% of their average annual income and this figure is 50% for non-college women.Women have a large and unambiguous short-run reduction in labor income at their AFB. In terms of lifetime labor income, both college and non-college women, compared to childless women, are associated with lower income of more than twice their respective average annual income when bearing a child at AFB31 are relatively higher

Methods versus substance: measuring the effects of technology shocks on hours

In this paper, we employ both calibration and modern (Bayesian) estimation methods to assess the role of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks in generating fluctuations in hours. Using a neoclassical stochastic growth model, we show how answers are shaped by the identification strategies and not by the statistical approaches. The crucial parameter is the labor supply elasticity. Both a calibration procedure that uses modern assessments of the Frisch elasticity and the estimation procedures result in technology shocks accounting for 2% to 9% of the variation in hours worked in the data. We infer that we should be talking more about identification and less about the choice of particular quantitative approaches.Business cycles ; Technology - Economic aspects

Natural resources and global misallocation

Are production factors allocated efficiently across countries? To differentiate misallocation from factor intensity differences, we construct a new dataset of estimates for the output shares of natural resources for a large panel of countries. We find a significant and persistent degree of misallocation of physical capital. We also find a remarkable movement toward efficiency during last 35 years, associated with the elimination of interventionist policies and driven by domestic accumulation. In contrast, we find a much larger and persistent misallocation of human capital. Interestingly, when both production factors can be reallocated, capital would often flow from poor to rich countries.The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396

Aggregate effects of AIDS on *development

In this dissertation I study the consequences of the AIDS epidemic for economic development. To this purpose I build a population model that keeps track of the demographic transition by age-specific population groups relating the age distribution of the population of each period to the preceding one via a fertility process, a mortality process and an aging process. I integrate this population model into a standard theory of economic development that determines the income per capita path along the process of industrialization—a transition that structurally shifts capital and labor from a Malthusian-agricultural sector to a neoclassical-industrial sector. This way, I provide a tight structural relationship between the distribution of the population across age groups and the stage of economic development—in terms of income per capita and agricultural share of output. Then, I use this population model to consistently identify the main channels through which AIDS, raising mortality rates of young adults and lowering fertility rates, affects populations over time: (i) reshapes the age distribution of the population, thinning the ranks of working-age groups (the share of children and old adults per worker raises by as much as 20-25% in highly infected countries), (ii) reduces population growth (by as much as .08% per percentage point of HIV prevalence), and (iii) reduces life expectancy (by as much as 15-20 years). In addition, AIDS also (iv) reduces the individual labor efficiency of the sick with an aggregate loss of 0.3% per percentage point of HIV prevalence. When I incorporate the AIDS epidemic as in (i)-(iv) into a model economy calibrated to an African country unaffected by AIDS, I find that the AIDS epidemic reduces per capita income by as much as 12% at the peak of the epidemic. I find also that the AIDS epidemic slows down the transition from agriculture to industry by about one century for the most highly infected countries

Aggregate effects of AIDS on *development

In this dissertation I study the consequences of the AIDS epidemic for economic development. To this purpose I build a population model that keeps track of the demographic transition by age-specific population groups relating the age distribution of the population of each period to the preceding one via a fertility process, a mortality process and an aging process. I integrate this population model into a standard theory of economic development that determines the income per capita path along the process of industrialization—a transition that structurally shifts capital and labor from a Malthusian-agricultural sector to a neoclassical-industrial sector. This way, I provide a tight structural relationship between the distribution of the population across age groups and the stage of economic development—in terms of income per capita and agricultural share of output. Then, I use this population model to consistently identify the main channels through which AIDS, raising mortality rates of young adults and lowering fertility rates, affects populations over time: (i) reshapes the age distribution of the population, thinning the ranks of working-age groups (the share of children and old adults per worker raises by as much as 20-25% in highly infected countries), (ii) reduces population growth (by as much as .08% per percentage point of HIV prevalence), and (iii) reduces life expectancy (by as much as 15-20 years). In addition, AIDS also (iv) reduces the individual labor efficiency of the sick with an aggregate loss of 0.3% per percentage point of HIV prevalence. When I incorporate the AIDS epidemic as in (i)-(iv) into a model economy calibrated to an African country unaffected by AIDS, I find that the AIDS epidemic reduces per capita income by as much as 12% at the peak of the epidemic. I find also that the AIDS epidemic slows down the transition from agriculture to industry by about one century for the most highly infected countries

Natural resources and global misallocation

Are production factors allocated efficiently across countries? To differentiate misallocation from factor intensity differences, we construct a new dataset of estimates for the output shares of natural resources for a large panel of countries. We find a significant and persistent degree of misallocation of physical capital. We also find a remarkable movement toward efficiency during last 35 years, associated with the elimination of interventionist policies and driven by domestic accumulation. In contrast, we find a much larger and persistent misallocation of human capital. Interestingly, when both production factors can be reallocated, capital would often flow from poor to rich countries.The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396

Natural resources and global misallocation

Are production factors allocated efficiently across countries? To differentiate misallocation from factor intensity differences, we construct a new dataset of estimates for the output shares of natural resources for a large panel of countries. We find a significant and persistent degree of misallocation of physical capital. We also find a remarkable movement toward efficiency during last 35 years, associated with the elimination of interventionist policies and driven by domestic accumulation. In contrast, we find a much larger and persistent misallocation of human capital. Interestingly, when both production factors can be reallocated, capital would often flow from poor to rich countries.The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396

Natural resources and global misallocation

Are production factors allocated efficiently across countries? To differentiate misallocation from factor intensity differences, we construct a new dataset of estimates for the output shares of natural resources for a large panel of countries. We find a significant and persistent degree of misallocation of physical capital. We also find a remarkable movement toward efficiency during last 35 years, associated with the elimination of interventionist policies and driven by domestic accumulation. In contrast, we find a much larger and persistent misallocation of human capital. Interestingly, when both production factors can be reallocated, capital would often flow from poor to rich countries.The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396