Neural networks for post-processing ensemble weather forecasts

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters of a predictive distribution are estimated from a training period. We propose a flexible alternative based on neural networks that can incorporate nonlinear relationships between arbitrary predictor variables and forecast distribution parameters that are automatically learned in a data-driven way rather than requiring pre-specified link functions. In a case study of 2-meter temperature forecasts at surface stations in Germany, the neural network approach significantly outperforms benchmark post-processing methods while being computationally more affordable. Key components to this improvement are the use of auxiliary predictor variables and station-specific information with the help of embeddings. Furthermore, the trained neural network can be used to gain insight into the importance of meteorological variables thereby challenging the notion of neural networks as uninterpretable black boxes. Our approach can easily be extended to other statistical post-processing and forecasting problems. We anticipate that recent advances in deep learning combined with the ever-increasing amounts of model and observation data will transform the post-processing of numerical weather forecasts in the coming decade

Mediators and Cytokines in Persistent Allergic Rhinitis and Nonallergic Rhinitis with Eosinophilia Syndrome

Background: Patients with nonallergic rhinitis with eosinophilia syndrome (NARES) show typical symptoms of persistent allergic rhinitis (PAR). The aim of the present study was to compare nasal cytokine patterns between NARES and PAR. Methods: Nasal secretions of 31 patients suffering from NARES, 20 patients with PAR to house dust mite and 21 healthy controls were collected using the cotton wool method and analyzed for interleukin (IL)-1 beta, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IL-17, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF), interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) and macrophage inflammatory protein-1 beta (MIP-1 beta) by Bio-Plex Cytokine Assay as well as eosinophil cationic protein (ECP) and tryptase by UniCAP-FEIA. Results: NARES and PAR presented elevated levels of tryptase, while ECP was markedly increased solely in NARES compared to both the controls and PAR. Elevated levels of IL-1 beta, IL-17, IFN-gamma, TNF-alpha and MCP-1 were found in NARES compared to the controls as well as PAR. MIP-1 beta was elevated in NARES and PAR, while IL-4, IL-6 and G-CSF showed increased levels in NARES, and IL-5 was elevated in PAR only. Conclusions: In patients with NARES and PAR, eosinophils and mast cells appear to be the pivotal cells of inflammation, reflected by high levels of tryptase and ECP as well as IL-5 and GM-CSF as factors for eosinophil migration and survival. The elevated levels of proinflammatory cytokines in NARES may indicate the chronic, self-perpetuating process of inflammation in NARES which seems to be more pronounced than in PAR. IL-17 might be a factor for neutrophilic infiltration or be responsible for remodeling processes in NARES. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

A common language to assess allergic rhinitis control : results from a survey conducted during EAACI 2013 Congress

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Student Movements, Politics, and Policy in Chile, 2001 – 2012

Chile has frequently been touted as an economic miracle, the “Jaguar of Latin America”. Boasting the strongest economy in South America, due to severe neoliberal economic structural adjustments made under the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet, it has long been held up as the perfect exemplar of economic growth and stability, as well as the poster child for the effectiveness of neoliberal economics. After the re-establishment of democracy in 1990, political conditions improved as well; the country enjoyed a decade of stability and peace under its first two democratically-elected governments. Yet, beginning approximately ten years after the transition to democracy, Chilean students began engaging in massive waves of protest. Discontent grew, and students manifested in larger numbers and for longer periods of time with each successive cycle of mobilization, eventually culminating in the “social explosion” of 2019. This dissertation examines three cycles of student mobilization in Chile; the Mochilazo (2001), the Revolución Pengüina (2006), and the Invierno Chileno (2011), seeking to explain the effects the protests had on public policy, laws, and political institutions in the country. It delves into how the students were able to enlarge both the number of participants and their claims with each successive cycle; their repertoires of contention; their interactions with government officials; their framing and messages; and what changes occurred as a result of each cycle. A combination of the joint-effect model and Felix Kolb’s framework are used to analyze the effects of social mobilization. Guided by the state-movement intersection model, Marco Giugni’s joint-effect model, and Felix Kolb’s framework for analyzing the impact of social movements, I find that the students were able to affect numerous changes in each cycle of mobilization, enlarging their claims and numbers each time via transferred knowledge from previous cycles. Chilean students have come to be regarded as important political actors in the political system, and have evolved their claims to demand massive structural changes to both the political and economic systems in the country

Adenovirus-based phospholamban antisense expression as a novel approach to improve cardiac contractile dysfunction: comparison of a constitutive viral versus an endothelin-1-responsive cardiac promoter

BACKGROUND: A decrease in sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) pump (SERCA2) activity is believed to play a role in the impairment of diastolic function of the failing heart. Because the expression ratio of phospholamban (PL) to SERCA2 may be a target to improve contractile dysfunction, a PL antisense RNA strategy was developed under the control of either a constitutive cytomegalovirus (CMV) or an inducible atrial natriuretic factor (ANF) promoter. The latter is upregulated in hypertrophied and failing heart, allowing "induction-by-disease" gene therapy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Part of the PL cDNA was cloned in antisense and sense directions into adenovectors under the control of either a CMV (Ad5CMVPLas and Ad5CMVPLs, respectively) or ANF (Ad5ANFPLas and Ad5ANFPLs, respectively) promoter. Infection of cultured rat neonatal cardiomyocytes with Ad5CMVPLas reduced PL mRNA to 30+/-7% of baseline and PL protein to 24+/-3% within 48 and 72 hours, respectively. The effects were vector dose dependent. Ad5CMVPLas increased the Ca(2+) sensitivity of SERCA2 and reduced the time to 50% recovery of the Ca(2+) transient. A decrease of PL protein was also achieved by infection with Ad5ANFPLas, and the presence of the hypertrophic stimulus, endothelin-1, led to enhanced downregulation of PL. The adenovectors expressing PL sense RNA had no effect on any of the tested parameters. CONCLUSIONS: Vector-mediated PL antisense RNA expression may become a feasible approach to modulate myocyte Ca(2+) homeostasis in the failing heart. The inducible ANF promoter for the first time offers the perspective for induction-by-disease gene therapy, ie, selective expression of therapeutic genes in hypertrophied and failing cardiomyocytes

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL PATTERNS OF INVASIVE EXOTIC PLANT SPECIES IN RESPONSE TO TIMBER HARVESTING IN A MIXED MESOPHYTIC FOREST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY

Invasive exotic species (IES) responses to silvicultural treatments eight years after timber harvesting were examined and compared to one-year post-harvest IES survey in University of Kentucky’s Robinson Forest. The temporal effects of harvesting were further compared between harvested and non-harvested watersheds. Analyses were performed to identify IES spatial distribution and determine the relationships between IES presence and disturbance effects, biological, and environmental characteristics. IES prevalence was higher in the harvested watersheds and was influenced by canopy cover, shrub cover and disturbance proximity. Ailanthus altissima and Microstegium vimineum presence in the study area has decreased over time. Comparing to the 1-yr post-harvest study which only identified direct harvesting effects (e.g. canopy cover and disturbance proximities) as significant predictors, the 8-yr post-harvest survey results suggest that while harvesting effects and disturbance proximity still play an important role, environmental characteristics have also taken precedence in predicting IES presence. Overall IES prevalence has decreased but invasive plant species richness has increased over time. Results indicate that IES eradication may not need to be conducted immediately after harvesting, and when needed, can primarily target IES hotspots where low canopy cover, proximity to disturbance, and southwest facing slopes convene on the landscape