Key factors affecting the future provision of tree-based forest ecosystem goods and services

The continuous provisioning of forest ecosystem goods and services (EGS) is of considerable interest to society. To provide insights on how much EGS provision will change with a changing climate and which factors will influence this change the most, we simulated forest stands on six climatically different sites in Central Europe under several scenarios of species diversity, management, and climate change. We evaluated the influence of these factors on the provision of a range of tree-based EGS, represented by harvested basal area, total biomass, stand diversity, and productivity. The most influential factor was species diversity, with diverse forest stands showing a lower sensitivity to climate change than monocultures. Management mainly influenced biomass, with the most intensively managed stands retaining more of their original biomass than others. All three climate-change scenarios yielded very similar results. We showed that (1) only few factor combinations perform worse under climate-change conditions than others, (2) diversity aspects are important for adaptive management measures, but for some indicators, management may be more important than diversity, and (3) at locations subject to increasing drought, the future provision of EGS may decrease regardless of the factor combination. This quantitative evaluation of the influence of different factors on changes in the provision of forest EGS with climate change represents an important step towards the design of more focused adaptation strategies and highlights key factors that should be considered in simulation studies under climate chang

Modeling land suitability for Coffea arabica L. in Central America

Climate data availability plays a key role in development processes of policies, services, and planning in the agricultural sector. However, data at the spatial or temporal resolution required is often lacking, or certain values are missing. In this work, we propose to use a Bayesian network approach to generate data for missing variables. As a case study, we use relative humidity, which is an important indicator of land suitability for coffee production. For the model, we first extracted climate data for the variables precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, wind speed, solar radiation and relative humidity from the surface reanalysis dataset Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. We then used machine learning algorithms to define the model structure and parameters from the relationships of the variables found in the dataset. Precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, wind speed, and solar radiation are then used as proxy variables to infer missing values for monthly relative humidity and relative humidity for the driest month. For this, we used both complete and incomplete initial data. In both scenarios of data availability, the comparison of estimated and measured values of relative humidity shows a high level of agreement. We conclude that using Bayesian Networks is a practical solution to estimate relative humidity for coffee agricultural planning

Exploring the cooling effect of shading for climate change adaptation in coffee areas

Rising air temperatures are the main reason for the expected reduction in land suitability for coffee cultivation under climate change in Central America. One of the reasons farmers use shade trees is to create a cooler microclimate in coffee plantations located in warming areas; therefore, adjusting the shade levels could alleviate future high temperatures. Even though data on expected climatic changes are available, no studies have addressed the cooling potential of shading in coffee production systems. In this study, we use regional climate information (RCP 4.5) and a simple shade model to explore the potential of shading as an adaptation practice in the coffee areas in Central America. A model was developed to estimate the required shade levels for Coffea arabica L. based on mean air temperature. Modeled and observed shade data were compared. Results indicate that compared to 2000, an overall increment of 23 ± 18% of shading would be required to alleviate the warming conditions by 2050. The shading will be more beneficial to coffee areas at medium and high altitudes than to areas at low ones. Also, the number of coffee areas that require dense shade levels (shading > 60%) may double by 2050. This would lead to a boost in tree biomass (carbon content) but also increase the competition for the coffee plants and consequently affect coffee yields. Trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, and productivity objectives are expected in the coffee areas in the future

Land in Central America will become less suitable for coffee cultivation under climate change

Coffee cultivation in Central America provides goods and services at local, national, and international levels. Climate change is likely to affect the magnitude and continuity of these benefits by reducing the land suitability for coffee cultivation. To quantify the impacts of climate change on land suitability, we use the Bayesian network model Agroecological Land Evaluation for Coffea arabica L. (ALECA) and estimate the land suitability for coffee production in 2000, 2050, and 2080 under three climate change scenarios based on relative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Results indicate that even under the less severe climate scenarios, over half of the current coffee area in Central America will experience a decline in its land suitability for coffee production, from excellent or good to moderate and marginal, and that the change will not happen in the more distant future of 2080, but by 2050. Under RCP 8.5, most coffee areas become of marginal and moderate suitability. The findings show that the continuity of coffee cultivation in a large portion of coffee areas in Central America is under threat and that farmers and policy-makers should develop adaptation portfolios for their farms and regions in a timely manner

Final countdown for biodiversity hotspots

Most of Earth's biodiversity is found in 36 biodiversity hotspots, yet less than 10% natural intact vegetation remains. We calculated models projecting the future state of most of these hotspots for the year 2050, based on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure. Our models project an increasing demand for agricultural land resulting in the conversion of >50% of remaining natural intact vegetation in about one third of all hotspots, and in 2-6 hotspots resulting from climatic pressure. This confirms that, in the short term, habitat loss is of greater concern than climate change for hotspots and their biodiversity. Hotspots are most severely threatened in tropical Africa and parts of Asia, where demographic pressure and the demand for agricultural land is highest. The speed and magnitude of pristine habitat loss is, according to our models, much greater than previously shown when combining both scenarios on future climatic and agroeconomic pressure

Inferring multiple coffee flowerings in Central America using farmer data in a probabilistic model

Coffee (Coffea arabica L.) is a climate-sensitive crop; rainfalls may trigger flowering event occurrences, and extreme rainfall during a flowering day can cause considerable yield reductions. Multiple flowering events can occur in the span of 12 months; the number varies from year to year. This paper introduces a Bayesian network model capable of inferring coffee flowering events in coffee areas in the Pacific Region of Central America based on observed data for coffee flowering and precipitation. The model structure was determined based on expert knowledge, and the model parametrization was learned from 53 years of data registered in the region. Data from four farms in the region were used for model validation. The model's performance in the inference of flowering intensity was good (spherical payoff of 0.78 out of maximal 1.00), and the model was able to depict expected behaviors for single and multiple flowerings. Further, comprehensive new details on the dynamics of multiple flowerings within a crop season were obtained, e.g., that a large flowering event tends to occur more quickly (8 to 10 days) after rain than a small flowering (10 to 13 days). We believe that this Bayesian network model has the potential to evolve and support the development of agricultural index-based insurance to deal with yield losses due to extreme rainfall during flowering. The use of longer farm records for model building may also serve to increase farmers' trust in the reliability of the tool

Research inventory of child health: A report on roadmaps for the future of child health research in Europe

RICHE was the response to a call under HEALTH-2009-3.3-5, with the title of 'European child health research platform'. The call text asked us to “address the diversity and fragmentation in child health research in Europe in an inclusive multidisciplinary way, identifying existing research programmes in Member States, recent advances and identification of gaps to explore road maps for the future of child health research in Europe”. Project structure A consortium, with a final total of 23 partners, and two associate (i.e. unfunded) partners, responded to this call. We designed a project with a linear structure, where the main focus of activity moved from work on the Inventory, and Indicators and Measurement, in Year 1, to work on Gaps in Year 2, finishing with the preparation of the Roadmap in year 3. The final 6 months (Year 4) were largely dissemination. The Platform, which is instantiated in our website, supported all of the other parts,, and was a focus for communication and dissemination throughout the project. Each workpackage focused on a specific area of work, but each fed into its successors, and all leaders and partners worked closely together. Each group produced a number of technical reports and other outputs. The final output was a Roadmap for future investment in European child health research. This has been widely disseminated, and has fed at Commission level and National level into the Horizon 2020 call preparation process. RICHE Roadmap The RICHE Roadmap is based upon a sound, scientific evidence base, which we had gathered as part of our earlier work. The project prepared an inventory of child health research and of measurements and indicators of child health in Europe (WP1 and WP2) . This was collated using a web platform – which can be found at www.childhealthresearch.eu. In addition to this exercise, a formal study of the gaps in child health research was undertaken by carrying out surveys and interviews of researchers and research users across Europe (WP3). This allowed our initial views on the research gaps to be refined and corrected by an iterative process, involving, both project partners, and the wider scientific community, so seeking grounding and validation for this key phase. These results formed the basis for the RICHE Roadmap. The Roadmap is based on a life-course perspective. It covers the important phases of a child’s development, including maternal health, and pregnancy, through to adolescence and the protective and risk factors, and health services encountered throughout childhood and adolescence as he or she moves towards adulthood. RICHE looked upstream to identify where more work needed to be done to prevent avoidable physical and mental ill-health, disability and death in the population of European children aged 0-18 years. This shows how the many influences and outcomes of children’s health are interrelated; a pattern reflected in the Roadmap. The work necessarily involved a series of value judgements, especially on setting priorities, because there are no objective and unconditionally valid answers to the question “Is there enough research on this topic?”, nor to the question “Is this a topic of significance?”. Nevertheless, the RICHE Roadmap uses an inclusive and transparent process to explain the recommendations it made, and the subjects it chose, making our values, and the reasons for judgements as explicit as possible. The report is organised into broad subject areas, that reflect the key ‘gaps’ in knowledge about children and young people, or about particular aspects of their lifestyle and health. These key areas, and selected findings within each area, are briefly summarised here. Life Course and Lifestyle This section focuses on children as they age, and recognises the importance of continuing to research how factors before conception, during gestation and in the very early years of life can affect present and future health. The challenges that children face as they grow up are also highlighted – these can be created because of policy decisions that fail to take account of children and young people’s lives or because of the pervasive influences of individual circumstances that act ask protective or risk factors for children’s actions. The concept of resilience in childhood is also highlighted, and how research needs to focus on this important and powerful means of improving children’s lives. A key issue, throughout the life course, is mental health and well-being. Fostering well-being in children from birth, and throughout childhood will provide numerous individual and societal benefits. It deserves a greater research focus. Socio-economic and Cultural Factors The socio-economic and cultural environment in which a child is born and grows up has a potent effect on a child’s health and well-being. Inequity and inequalities in health, between and within nations depending on socio-economic circumstances, are known to affect health outcomes. Those in the poorest areas have worse health, and shorter lives than those in the wealthiest areas. Other groups are at risk of marginalisation from health services and from opportunities that can maximise their health. These include migrant children where the question is how best to support their integration into their new societies and communities, while retaining their individual identity; children in the state care system have poor health and social outcomes, so improving these, by focused research is important for the future health of these children; children from minority population groups, in particular those who travel across nations, such as the Roma, need to have focused attention, to ensure that their health outcomes begin to match those of the general European child population. Social and Community Networks The main influences on children and young people are their immediate family and community networks. This extends from the influence of the family as a warm and nurturing environment in which to grow up – and conversely a place of the most profound danger and threat if such a family environment is toxic; to the wider influence of school, and finally the broader community. Becoming engaged and involved in community life is beneficial for the entire population, not just for the children and young people directly involved. It is an aspect of children and young people’s experience that is important for well-being and social inclusion. Environment The term 'environment' covers several different concepts, and the RICHE Roadmap describes the physical, virtual and also the perceived environment – all of which interlink in children’s lives, and have a profound effect on their health and development. These include the physical environment, the virtual (digital) environment, physical safety, including injury prevention, and protection form crime, anti-social behaviour and violence (both as perpetrators and victims). Complex Health Issues The majority of children in Europe are healthy, and ill-health is not a characteristic of this population as it is in, for example, an ageing population. However, there are certain health issues that affect children, and as such can blight an entire lifetime. Our Roadmap does not cover clinical issues, but takes a population perspective. There are certain disorders that have a population-wide effect and are prevalent enough in the child population to warrant particular attention from a public health viewpoint. Four specific areas of concern were identified – overweight and obesity, mental health, sexual and reproductive health, and neuro-developmental disorders. Health Services The main research needs of the health services focuses on the prevention of poor health. Comparing health services across Europe and evaluating the means of conveying health promotion messages are important directions for health research to investigate. Indicators need developing which reflect the effect of preventive actions, particularly among younger children. Vulnerable populations, such as those in deprived communities, need to have health prevention services particularly targeted. There is little systematic evaluation of such interventions, which compromises the development of new interventions and their implementation. Those who do not access services and those who need particular attention can be identified. Public Health Infrastructure Health surveillance is essential so that health needs can be identified and addressed effectively for the benefit of the child population. Yet, many existing sources of data are neither analysed, nor made available in a child-centric way. Children need to be made more visible in the data so that they can have more effective health promotion and health care on a population level. Specific examples include work on autism and morbidity due to injury. Europe also needs to establish proper measures and indicators of children’s health and children’s lives. We cannot act properly without first identifying and measuring the problem. Electronic health records are an emerging technology that has great potential, both for research, and for improved access to care. They need to be developed and investigated further to encourage their use across the European Union. Improving Research Capacity It is necessary to ensure that there are enough resources, both to do research, and to make use of the research findings. To sustain research activity, specialist training for junior child health researchers is needed, as are sufficient resources to maintain a critical mass of researchers and provide attractive career paths for them. Children and young people as subjects of research need to continue to be safeguarded by a consistently ethical framework, and information collected about children needs to be accurate, comprehensive and used intelligently so that interventions and services can be correctly directed. Using the roadmap The roadmap is a complex document, addressed to a number of different stakeholders. One key group are those who make decision bout research finding priorities. We have disseminated the roadmap widely at EU level, to reach into the process of priority setting for Horizon 2020. This has been done thought National Contact Points in each partner country, through relevant NGO's, and by sending copes to and meeting with relevant parts of the European Commission. Readers using the roadmap will most likely use it in two ways, first to make a general case for investment in Child Health Research, and secondly to target that investment, by considering the questions we have identified, and reviewing our justifications for these choices. We do not expect our work to determine future investments in child health, but we are confident that using our work would lead to better decisions overall. Conclusions Our core value is to put children first in our work. We take the rights of the child seriously, and we are conscious that many children do not have the opportunity to exercise the right to health and healthcare that European children they ought to have. The topics in this Roadmap are pragmatic in that they are researchable (within the grasp of presently available research methods and resources) and that are likely to have a significant effect on the lives of European children. This will go a considerable distance in improving the health and well-being of European children who may not have benefited from Europe’s good fortune up until this point. At the very least, the RICHE Roadmap aims to begin a serious conversation across Europe about the need for research to focus on children and how this will ultimately benefit all members of the European population. There is a need for children to become substantially more visible in European society. At present many children’s lives are invisible to health surveillance and to research. Sometimes they are submerged with their families, as in the case of Roma or for children of illegal and undocumented immigrant families. Even in well-documented societies, children’s circumstances are invisible as data are collected from the perspective of economically active adults, or households. Therefore, an overarching recommendation in this road map is the establishment of a European Child Health Observatory with a simple remit to make European Children, and their lives, health and attainment of rights more visible. We also recommend continuing and extending the discussion to the edge of existing child health boundaries, to address topics such as the effects on children’s health of urban design and architecture, fiscal policy (which can affect many health issues), welfare, or health effects of immigration policy. The RICHE Roadmap hopes to point the way in which children can be fully recognised and respected as forming a valuable population and whose health and well-being contributes to the health of our present and future European society

Simulated crop yields, pesticide application rates and soil nitrogen and carbon contents in EU at NUTS2-level from 2000 to 2100

Dataset containing simulated yields of 16 crops, total pesticides application rates, total N-fertilizer applied, and NO3, organic N and organic C content of the soil in conventional (conv) and organic (org) systems for the time period 2000 to 2100. Results were aggregated to decadal means at NUTS2-level. The biogeophysical crop model Pest-EPIC was used for the simulations. Daily climate data for the model runs were provided by the Impact2C project (CSC-REMO2009-MPI-ESM-LR+ simulations for RCPs 2p6, 4p5 and 8p5)

Estimating Pesticide Inputs and Yield Outputs of Conventional and Organic Agricultural Systems in Europe under Climate Change

Simulating organic agriculture is a considerable challenge. One reason is that few models are capable of simulating crop-pest interactions and the yield losses they cause. Here, a recently developed process-based crop-pest model (Pest-EPIC) was used to simulate conventional and organic agriculture in the European Union for the years 1995–2100. Yields and pesticide application rates were calibrated against FAOSTAT and Eurostat data. Results indicate that current pesticide application rates may be sufficient to control pests and diseases even at the end of the century. The range of simulated yield differences under organic and conventional agriculture under current conditions (e.g., wheat 21–55% (mean 34%) lower yields; potatoes 20–99% (mean 56%) lower yields) closely matched recorded values. Under climate change, the gap between yields under conventional and organic management will remain constant for some crops (e.g., at 3 t/ha for potatoes), but others—susceptible to a larger number of pests and diseases—may experience a widening of the yield gap (e.g., increase of yield difference from 0.8 to 1.6 t/ha for wheat). The presented results-dataset may in future be a valuable resource for integrated assessments of agricultural land use and policy planning, but the inherent uncertainty is still very high