The FOMC's balance-of-risks statement and market expectations of policy actions

In January 2000, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) instituted the practice of issuing a “balance of risks” statement along with their policy decision immediately following each FOMC meeting. Robert H. Rasche and Daniel L. Thornton evaluate the use of the balance-of-risks statement and the market’s interpretation of it. They find that the balance-of-risks statement is one of the factors that market participants use to determine the likelihood that the FOMC will adjust its target for the federal funds rate at their next meeting. Moreover, they find that, on some occasions, the FOMC behaved in such a way as to encourage the use of the balance-of-risks statement for this purpose. The clarifying statements that sometimes accompany these balance-of-risks statements, as well as general remarks made by the Chairman and other FOMC members, often provide additional useful information.Federal Open Market Committee ; Federal funds rate ; Monetary policy

Greenspan's unconventional view of the long-run inflation/output trade-off

Greenspan, Alan ; Inflation (Finance)

The monetary/fiscal policy debate: a controlled experiment

Fiscal policy - Japan ; Monetary policy - Japan

Market anticipations of monetary policy actions

Monetary policy ; Federal funds rate

Hydrodynamic simulation of the effects of stable in-channel large wood on the flood hydrographs of a low mountain range creek, Ore Mountains, Germany

Large wood (LW) can alter the hydromorphological and hydraulic characteristics of rivers and streams and may act positively on a river's ecology by i.e. leading to increased habitat availability. On the contrary, floating as well as stable LW is a potential threat for anthropogenic goods and infrastructure during flood events. Concerning the contradiction of potential risks and positive ecological impacts, addressing the physical effects of stable large wood is highly important. Hydrodynamic models offer the possibility of investigating the hydraulic effects of anchored large wood. However, the work and time involved varies between approaches that incorporate large wood in hydrodynamic models. In this study, a two-dimensional hydraulic model is set up for a mountain creek to simulate the hydraulic effects of stable LW and to compare multiple methods of accounting for LW-induced roughness. LW is implemented by changing in-channel roughness coefficients and by adding topographic elements to the model; this is carried out in order to determine which method most accurately simulates observed hydrographs and to provide guidance for future hydrodynamic modelling of stable large wood with two-dimensional models. The study area comprises a 282 m long reach of the Ullersdorfer Teichbächel, a creek in the Ore Mountains (south-eastern Germany). Discharge time series from field experiments allow for a validation of the model outputs with field observations with and without stable LW. We iterate in-channel roughness coefficients to best fit the mean simulated and observed flood hydrographs with and without LW at the downstream reach outlet. As an alternative approach for modelling LW-induced effects, we use simplified discrete topographic elements representing individual LW elements in the channel. In general, the simulations reveal a high goodness of fit between the observed flood hydrographs and the model results without and with stable in-channel LW. The best fit of the simulation and mean observed hydrograph with in-channel LW can be obtained when increasing in-channel roughness coefficients throughout the reach instead of an increase at LW positions only. The best fit in terms of the hydrograph's general shape can be achieved by integrating discrete elements into the calculation mesh. The results illustrate that the mean observed hydrograph can be satisfactorily modelled using an adjustment of roughness coefficients. In conclusion, a time-consuming and work-intensive mesh manipulation is suitable for analysing the more detailed effects of stable LW on a small spatio-temporal scale where high precision is required. In contrast, the reach-wise adjustment of in-channel roughness coefficients seems to provide similarly accurate results on the reach scale and, thus, could be helpful for practical applications of model-based impact assessments of stable LW on flood hydrographs of small streams and rivers

NPSS Multidisciplinary Integration and Analysis

The objective of this task was to enhance the capability of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) by expanding its reach into the high-fidelity multidisciplinary analysis area. This task investigated numerical techniques to convert between cold static to hot running geometry of compressor blades. Numerical calculations of blade deformations were iteratively done with high fidelity flow simulations together with high fidelity structural analysis of the compressor blade. The flow simulations were performed with the Advanced Ducted Propfan Analysis (ADPAC) code, while structural analyses were performed with the ANSYS code. High fidelity analyses were used to evaluate the effects on performance of: variations in tip clearance, uncertainty in manufacturing tolerance, variable inlet guide vane scheduling, and the effects of rotational speed on the hot running geometry of the compressor blades

Relation between pulse pressure and the pulsation strength in camera-based photoplethysmograms

Abstract Camera-based photoplethysmography (cbPPG) is an innovative measuring technique that enables the remote extraction of vital signs using video cameras. Most studies in the field focus on heart rate detection while other physiological quantities are often ignored. In this work, we analyzed the relation between the pulse pressure and the pulsation strengths of cbPPG signals for 70 patients after surgery. Our results show a high correlation between the two measures (r = 0.54). Furthermore, the influence of technical and medical factors was tested. The controlled impact of these factors proved to enhance the correlation by between 9 and 27 %.</jats:p

Association Between Fatigue and Motor Exertion in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis - a Prospective Study

Background: Fatigue in multiple sclerosis (MS) is conceived as a multidimensional construct. Objectives: This study aims to describe the changes of balance and gait parameters after 6 min of walking (6 MW) as potential quantitative markers for perceptions of state fatigue and trait fatigue in MS. Methods: A total of 19 patients with MS (17 with fatigue) and 24 healthy subjects underwent static posturography, gait analysis, and ratings of perceived exertion before and after 6 MW. Results: 6 MW was perceived as exhaustive, but both groups featured more dynamic comfortable speed walking after 6 MW. Shorter stride length at maximum speed and increased postural sway after 6 MW indicated fatigability of balance and gait in MS group only. While most changes were related to higher levels of perceived exertion after 6 MW (state fatigue), higher fatigue ratings (trait fatigue) were only associated with less increase in arm swing at comfortable speed. Further analysis revealed different associations of trait fatigue and performance fatigability with disability and motor functions. Performance fatigability was most closely related to the Expanded Disability Status Scale, while for trait fatigue, the strongest correlations were seen with balance function and handgrip strength. Conclusions: Fatigability of performance was closely related to perceptions of exertion after 6 MW (state fatigue) and disability in MS but distinct from fatigue ratings, conceived as trait fatigue. Our study identified postural sway, arm swing during gait, and hand grip strength as unexpected potential motor indicators of fatigue ratings in MS

The CSHQ-DE Questionnaire Uncovers Relevant Sleep Disorders in Children and Adolescents with Long COVID

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections in children and adolescents are usually mild. However, they can suffer from ongoing symptoms, generally referred to as long COVID. Sleep disorders are one of the most frequent complaints in long COVID although precise data are missing. We assessed the sleep behavior of children and adolescents who presented at our outpatient clinic between January 2021 and May 2022 with the Children’s Sleep Habits Questionnaire (CSHQ-DE). We compared the sleep behavior at three different time points: pre-COVID-19; post-COVID-19 at the initial presentation; and post-COVID-19 at re-presentation. Data from 45 patients were analyzed. Of those, 64% were female and the median age was 10 years (range: 0–18 years). Asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 disease was experienced in 89% of patients; 11% experienced moderate disease. The initial presentation occurred at a median of 20.4 weeks (6 weeks–14 months) after the infection. The CSHQ-DE score increased significantly from pre-COVID-19 (45.82 ± 8.7 points) to post-COVID-19 (49.40 ± 8.3 points; p ≤ 0.01). The score then normalized at re-presentation (46.98 ± 7.8; p = 0.1). The greatest changes were seen in the CSHQ-DE subscale score “daytime sleepiness”. Our data showed that children and adolescents with long COVID often suffer from sleep disturbances. For most children and adolescents, these sleep disorders decreased over time without any further medical intervention aside from a basic sleep consultation

Inter-microbial competition for N and plant NO3− uptake rather than BNI determines soil net nitrification under intensively managed Brachiaria humidicola

Brachiaria humidicola (syn. Urochloa humidicola) has been acknowledged to control soil nitrification through release of nitrification inhibitors (NI), a phenomenon conceptualized as biological nitrification inhibition (BNI). Liming and N fertilization as features of agricultural intensification may suppress BNI performance, due to a decrease in NI exudation, increased NH3 availability and promotion of ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) over archaea (AOA). A 2-year three-factorial pot trial was conducted to investigate the influence of soil pH and soil microbial background (ratio of archaea to bacteria) on BNI performance of B. humidicola. The study verified the capacity of B. humidicola to reduce net nitrification rates by 50 to 85% compared to the non-planted control, irrespective of soil pH and microbial background. The reduction of net nitrification, however, was largely dependent on microbial N immobilization and efficient plant N uptake. A reduction of gross nitrification could not be confirmed for the AOA dominated soil, but possibly contributed to reduced net nitrification rates in the AOB-dominated soil. However, this putative reduction of gross nitrification was attributed to plant-facilitated inter-microbial competition between bacterial heterotrophs and nitrifiers rather than BNI. It was concluded that BNI may play a dominant role in extensive B. humidicola pasture systems, while N immobilization and efficient plant N uptake may display the dominant factors controlling net nitrification rates under intensively managed B. humidicola