A comparison of scavenging and deposition processes in global models: results from the WCRP Cambridge Workshop of 1995

We report on results from a World Climate Research Program workshop on representations of scavenging and deposition processes in global transport models of the atmosphere. 15 models were evaluated by comparing simulations of radon, lead, sulfur dioxide, and sulfate against each other, and against observations of these constituents. This paper provides a survey on the simulation differences between models. It identifies circumstances where models are consistent with observations or with each other, and where they differ from observations or with each other. The comparison shows that most models are able to simulate seasonal species concentrations near the surface over continental sites to within a factor of 2 over many regions of the globe. Models tend to agree more closely over source (continental) regions than for remote (polar and oceanic) regions. Model simulations differ most strongly in the upper troposphere for species undergoing wet scavenging processes. There are not a sufficient number of observations to characterize the climatology (long-term average) of species undergoing wet scavenging in the upper troposphere. This highlights the need for either a different strategy for model evaluation (e.g., comparisons on an event by event basis) or many more observations of a few carefully chosen constituents

Medium and long-term adherence to postabortion contraception among women having experienced unsafe abortion in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Postabortion contraceptive service is considered an effective means in addressing the problem of unsafe abortion; in spite this fact this component remains one of the weakest parts of postabortion care. In this context, the paper aims to describe the impact of a postabortion contraceptive service intervention among women admitted with complications from unsafe abortions and to explore the women's long-term contraceptive adherence.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>392 women having experienced unsafe abortion were identified by an empathetic approach and offered postabortion contraceptive service, which included counselling on HIV and condom use. Questionnaire interviews about contraceptive use were conducted at the time of inclusion and 12 months after the abortion. Additionally, in-depth interviews were performed 6–12 months after the abortion.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eighty-nine percent of the women accepted postabortion contraception. Follow-up information was obtained 12 months after the abortion among 59 percent of the women. Among these, 79 percent of the married women and 84 percent of the single women stated they were using contraception at 12 months. Condom use among the single women increased significantly during the 12 months follow up.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Postabortion contraceptive services appear to be well accepted by women who are admitted with complications after an unsafe abortion and should thus be recognized as an important means in addressing the problem of unsafe abortion. In addition, counselling about HIV and condom use should be considered an essential aspect of postabortion care.</p

Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Niño?

During El Niño years, fires in tropical forests and peatlands in equatorial Asia create large regional smoke clouds. We characterized the sensitivity of these clouds to regional drought, and we investigated their effects on climate by using an atmospheric general circulation model. Satellite observations during 2000–2006 indicated that El Niño-induced regional drought led to increases in fire emissions and, consequently, increases in aerosol optical depths over Sumatra, Borneo and the surrounding ocean. Next, we used the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to investigate how climate responded to this forcing. We conducted two 30 year simulations in which monthly fire emissions were prescribed for either a high (El Niño, 1997) or low (La Niña, 2000) fire year using a satellite-derived time series of fire emissions. Our simulations included the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols on the radiation budget within the model. We assessed the radiative and climate effects of anthropogenic fire by analyzing the differences between the high and low fire simulations. Fire aerosols reduced net shortwave radiation at the surface during August–October by 19.1&amp;plusmn;12.9 W m&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt; (10%) in a region that encompassed most of Sumatra and Borneo (90&amp;deg; E–120&amp;deg; E, 5&amp;deg; S–5&amp;deg; N). The reductions in net shortwave radiation cooled sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land surface temperatures by 0.5&amp;plusmn;0.3 and 0.4&amp;plusmn;0.2 &amp;deg;C during these months. Tropospheric heating from black carbon (BC) absorption averaged 20.5&amp;plusmn;9.3 W m&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt; and was balanced by a reduction in latent heating. The combination of decreased SSTs and increased atmospheric heating reduced regional precipitation by 0.9&amp;plusmn;0.6 mm d&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; (10%). The vulnerability of ecosystems to fire was enhanced because the decreases in precipitation exceeded those for evapotranspiration. Together, the satellite and modeling results imply a possible positive feedback loop in which anthropogenic burning in the region intensifies drought stress during El Niño

Choosing Meteorological Input for the Global Modeling Initiative Assessment of High Speed Aircraft

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team is developing a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to be used in assessment of the atmospheric effects of aviation. Requirements are that this model be documented, be validated against observations, use a realistic atmospheric circulation, and contain numerical transport and photochemical modules representing atmospheric processes. The model must also retain computational efficiency to be tractable to use for multiple scenarios and sensitivity studies. To meet these requirements, a facility model concept was developed in which the different components of the CTM are evaluated separately. The first use of the GMI model will be to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. The assessment calculations will depend strongly on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere are available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to identify the data set which provides the best representation of the stratosphere. Simulations of gases with simple chemical control were chosen to test various aspects of model transport. The three meteorological data sets were evaluated and graded based on their ability to simulate these aspects of stratospheric measurements. This paper describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields. The meteorological data set which has the highest score and therefore was selected for GMI is CCM2. This type of objective model evaluation establishes a physical basis for interpretation of differences between models and observations. Further, the method provides a quantitative basis for defining model errors, for discriminating between different models, and for ready re-evaluation of improved models. These in turn will lead to a higher level of confidence in assessment calculations

Statistical Inference in a Directed Network Model with Covariates

Networks are often characterized by node heterogeneity for which nodes exhibit different degrees of interaction and link homophily for which nodes sharing common features tend to associate with each other. In this paper, we propose a new directed network model to capture the former via node-specific parametrization and the latter by incorporating covariates. In particular, this model quantifies the extent of heterogeneity in terms of outgoingness and incomingness of each node by different parameters, thus allowing the number of heterogeneity parameters to be twice the number of nodes. We study the maximum likelihood estimation of the model and establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators. Numerical studies demonstrate our theoretical findings and a data analysis confirms the usefulness of our model.Comment: 29 pages. minor revisio