Universal Transfers, Tax Breaks and Fertility: Evidence from a Regional Reform in Norway

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Explaining Residential Clustering of Large Families

Numerous studies have shown that fertility behavior is spatially clustered. In addition to pure contextual effects, two causal mechanisms could drive this pattern. First, neighbors may influence each other's fertility and second, family size may influence decisions about where to live. In this study we examine these two potential causal mechanisms empirically, using the sex composition of the two eldest children and twin births as instrumental variables (IVs) for having a third child. We estimate how having a third child affects three separate outcomes: the fertility of neighbors; the propensity to move houses; and the likelihood of living in a family-friendly neighborhood with many children. We draw residential and childbearing histories (2000–2018) from Norwegian administrative registers (N ~ 167,000 women). Individuals' neighborhoods are defined using time-varying geocoordinates for place of residence. We identify selective moves as one plausible causal driver of residential clustering of large families. This study contributes to the understanding of fertility and relocation, and to the literature on the social interaction effects of fertility, by testing the relevance of yet another network: that of neighbors.Explaining Residential Clustering of Large FamiliespublishedVersio

The use of disaggregate data in evaluations of public health interventions: cross-sectional dependence can bias inference

Higher availability of administrative data and better infrastructure for electronic surveys allow for large sample sizes in evaluations of national and other large scale policies. Although larger datasets have many advantages, the use of big disaggregate data (e.g., on individuals, households, stores, municipalities) can be challenging in terms of statistical inference. Measurements made at the same point in time may be jointly influenced by contemporaneous factors and produce more variation across time than suggested by the model. This excess variation, or co-movement over time, produce observations that are not truly independent (i.e., cross-sectional dependence). If this dependency is not accounted for, statistical uncertainty will be underestimated, and studies may indicate reform effects where there is none. In the context of interrupted time series (segmented regression), we illustrate the potential for bias in inference when using large disaggregate data, and we describe two simple solutions that are available in standard statistical software

The effects of an abrupt increase in taxes on candy and soda in Norway: an observational study of retail sales

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Kunnskapsstatus om fruktbarhet og samliv i Norge

Rapporten gir en oppdatert oversikt over norske studier på områdene fruktbarhet og samliv. Til tross for nedgang de siste årene, ligger fruktbarheten i Norge fortsatt høyere enn i de fleste andre europeiske land. Kunnskapsstatusen viser at det er en nær sammenheng mellom fruktbarheten og en rekke ulike faktorer, som sosioøkonomiske ressurser. På noen områder er det gjort flere studier enn på andre. Det er blant annet blitt gjort en rekke studier av sammenhengen mellom utdanning og fruktbarhet. De senere årene har det også vært gjort flere studier av ulike sider av samliv og parforhold og fruktbarhet. Sammenhengen mellom fruktbarhet og familiepolitikk har også vært en sentral del av fruktbarhetsforskningen. De fleste nordmenn gifter seg fortsatt, men ekteskapene inngås senere i livet. Alderen ved første samlivsinngåelse har imidlertid endret seg lite. En viktig grunn til denne utviklingen er økningen i samboerskap. De fleste nyere studier av samlivsinngåelse tar hensyn til denne utviklingen ved å inkludere samboerskap, og det er i den senere tid gjort en rekke studier av forskjeller mellom samboerskap og ekteskap. Forskningen på samlivsområdet har etter hvert også inkludert personer med innvandrerbakgrunn og likekjønnede par. Men fortsatt finnes det få studier av samboeres partnervalg og brudd blant samboerpar.Prosjektet er finansiert av Barne-, likestillings- og inkluderingsdepartementet

Union histories of dissolution: What can they say about childlessness?

This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927–1962. I further condition on having experienced at least one union dissolution before age 45, giving a study sample of 883 men and 1110 women. To capture the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events using sequence analysis. Eight well-clustered groups of union histories are distinguished. Four consist of life courses dominated by a long first or second union and display low levels of childlessness. The highest proportion childlessness is found among individuals who entered a first union late and dissolved it quickly. Groups characterised by long spells alone after a dissolution or many short unions also displayed a high proportion of childlessness. In contrast to findings from the USA, neither union trajectories nor their link with childlessness varies by educational attainment

Earnings and first birth probability among Norwegian men and women 1995-2010

<b>Background</b>: The relationship between earnings and fertility and how it varies with context are among the core investigations of demography. Cross-country comparisons show that when parenting and employment are in conflict, this relationship is less positive for women. We lack knowledge of how this relationship is shaped by context for men and how it varies with contextual changes over time rather than between countries. <b>Objective</b>: I investigate how the relationship between earnings and first-birth probability changes over time for men and women, in a period when efforts in parenting and paid work become increasingly similar across sex. <b>Methods</b>: Discrete-time hazard regressions are applied to highly accurate data from Norwegian population registers. Through estimation of separate models for each of the years 1995 through 2010, I assess whether the correlation between yearly earnings and the first birth probabilities changed over period time. The correlation is estimated net of observable confounders, such as educational enrolment and attainment and region of birth. <b>Results</b>: The correlation between earnings and fertility has become substantially more positive over time for women, and also somewhat more positive among men. <b>Conclusions</b>: Though the potential opportunity cost of fathering increases, there is no evidence of a weaker correlation between earnings and first birth probability for men. I suggest that decreasing opportunity costs of motherhood as well as strategic timing of fertility are both plausible explanations for the increasingly positive correlation among women

Union dissolution and childlessness: New insights from sequence analysis

This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927-1962, giving a study sample of 3862 men and 3956 women. To grasp the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events together using sequence analysis. Union histories involving at least one dissolution are sorted into two groups: In the first group, a short first union is followed by quick repartnering, and the second union is still intact at age 45 for the majority. In this group, childlessness is low. In the second group, individuals spend more time as single before and after unions, and dissolving more than one union is common. This group displays high levels of childlessness. The association between a complex union history and childlessness is substantially and significantly stronger among men than among women. Among women, union histories involving a dissolution is more strongly linked to childlessness for the highly educated

Union dissolution and childlessness: New insights from sequence analysis

The work was supported by the Norwegian Research Council under Grant number 202442/S20.This study investigates how the association between union dissolution and childlessness depends on life course context. Data on union histories and fertility are taken from the Norwegian GGS. To observe union histories up to age 45, I include men and women born 1927-1962, giving a study sample of 3862 men and 3956 women. To grasp the life course context of union dissolutions, I group union histories similar in timing, occurrence and ordering of events together using sequence analysis. Union histories involving at least one dissolution are sorted into two groups: In the first group, a short first union is followed by quick repartnering, and the second union is still intact at age 45 for the majority. In this group, childlessness is low. In the second group, individuals spend more time as single before and after unions, and dissolving more than one union is common. This group displays high levels of childlessness. The association between a complex union history and childlessness is substantially and significantly stronger among men than among women. Among women, union histories involving a dissolution is more strongly linked to childlessness for the highly educated.publishedVersio