The Value Spread

We decompose the cross-sectional variance of firms' book-to-market ratios using both a long U.S. panel and a shorter international panel. In contrast to typical aggregate time-series results, transitory cross-sectional variation in expected 15-year stock returns causes only a relatively small fraction (20%) of the total cross-sectional variance. The remaining dispersion can be explained by expected 15-year profitability and persistence of valuation levels. Furthermore, this fraction appears stable across time and across types of stocks. We also show that the expected return on value-minus-growth strategies is atypically high at times when the value spread (the difference between the book-to-market ratio of a typical value stock and a typical growth stock) is wide.

The Price is (Almost) Right

Most previous research tests market efficiency and asset pricing models using average abnormal trading profits on dynamic trading strategies, and typically rejects the joint hypothesis. In contrast, we measure the ability of a simple risk model and the efficient-market hypothesis to explain the level of stock prices. First, we find that cash-flow betas (measured by regressing firms' earnings on the market's earnings) explain the prices of value and growth stocks well, with a plausible premium. Second, we use a present-value model to decompose the cross-sectional variance of firms' price-to-book ratios into two components due to risk-adjusted fundamental value and mispricing. When we allow the discount rates to vary with cash-flow betas, the variance share of mispricing is negligible.

Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis

Modigliani and Cohn [1979] hypothesize that the stock market suffers from money illusion, discounting real cash flows at nominal discount rates. While previous research has focused on the pricing of the aggregate stock market relative to Treasury bills, the money-illusion hypothesis also has implications for the pricing of risky stocks relative to safe stocks. Simultaneously examining the pricing of Treasury bills, safe stocks, and risky stocks allows us to distinguish money illusion from any change in the attitudes of investors towards risk. Our empirical resuts support the hypothesis that the stock market suffers from money illusion.

Health Belief Model, Demographic, and Sexual Behavioral Factors Associated with Mpox Vaccination Among Men who have Sex with Men

The mpox virus outbreak (formerly known as monkeypox) in the United States created an urgent need to inform vaccination acceptance and uptake interventions. We quantitatively examined the association of the Health Belief Model, demographic, and sexual behavioral factors with men who have sex with men (MSM) getting the mpox vaccine. We qualitatively explored MSM’s perceived barriers to obtaining the mpox vaccine. A convenience sample of MSM in the United States (n = 554) completed a mixed-method online cross-sectional survey. A series of chi-square tests of independence, t-tests, and multivariable logistic regressions were used to analyze associations between participants who were and were not vaccinated against mpox. Inductive content analysis was used to investigate perceived barriers. Participants who perceived the barriers that the mpox vaccine is expensive and troublesome had lower odds of getting the mpox vaccine. The content analysis revealed that the most cited barrier was vaccine unavailability and inaccessibility. Health campaigns can increase perceived susceptibility to mpox and the perceived benefits of the mpox vaccine. Still, structural interventions are necessary to ensure that vaccine delivery is adequate, accessible, and equitable

Risk Management for Ag Families: An Extension Model for Improving Family Business Success

A risky business environment for agricultural producers coupled with human risk elements unique to family businesses, points to the need for extension programs that integrate traditional risk management concepts into curriculums focused on the potentially unique educational needs of family farm management teams. Results in this paper indicate that a multi-state, grant funded program entitled "Risk Management for Ag Families" had impact and provides a model that traditional risk management education programs could benefit from.Risk and Uncertainty, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Aerial Inventories of Waterfowl in Illinois and Estimation of Moist-soil Plant Seed Abundance for Waterfowl on Lands Managed by Illinois Department of Natural Resources

Grant/Contract No: W-43-R 53-54-55Reports on progress and results of inventories of waterfowl along the Illinois and central Mississippi rivers during fall and winter and estimation of moist-soil plant seed abundance for waterfowl on lands managed by Illinois Department of Natural ResourcesINHS Technical Report Prepared for U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Illinois Department of Natural Resource

Evaluating hydrology preservation of simplified terrain representations

We present an error metric based on the potential energy of water flow to evaluate the quality of lossy terrain simplification algorithms. Typically, terrain compression algorithms seek to minimize RMS (root mean square) and maximum error. These metrics fail to capture whether a reconstructed terrain preserves the drainage network. A quantitative measurement of how accurately a drainage network captures the hydrology is important for determining the effectiveness of a terrain simplification technique. Having a measurement for testing and comparing different models has the potential to be widely used in numerous applications (flood prevention, erosion measurement, pollutant propagation, etc). In this paper, we transfer the drainage network computed on reconstructed geometry onto the original uncompressed terrain and use our error metric to measure the level of error created by the simplification. We also present a novel terrain simplification algorithm based on the compression of hydrology features. This method and other terrain compression schemes are then compared using our new metric