Multi-scale influence of vapor pressure deficit on fire ignition and spread in boreal forest ecosystems

Climate-driven changes in the fire regime within boreal forest ecosystems are likely to have important effects on carbon cycling and species composition. In the context of improving fire management options and developing more realistic scenarios of future change, it is important to understand how meteorology regulates different aspects of fire dynamics, including ignition, daily fire spread, and cumulative annual burned area. Here we combined Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fires (MCD14ML), MODIS imagery (MOD13A1) and ancillary historic fire perimeter information to produce a data set of daily fire spread maps for Alaska during 2002–2011. This approach provided a spatial and temporally continuous representation of fire progression and a precise identification of ignition and extinction locations and dates for each wildfire. The fire-spread maps were analyzed with daily vapor pressure deficit (VPD) observations from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and lightning strikes from the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). We found a significant relationship between daily VPD and likelihood that a lightning strike would develop into a fire ignition. In the first week after ignition, above average VPD increased the probability that fires would grow to large or very large sizes. Strong relationships also were identified between VPD and burned area at several levels of temporal and spatial aggregation. As a consequence of regional coherence in meteorology, ignition, daily fire spread, and fire extinction events were often synchronized across different fires in interior Alaska. At a regional scale, the sum of positive VPD anomalies during the fire season was positively correlated with annual burned area during the NARR era (1979–2011; R2 = 0.45). Some of the largest fires we mapped had slow initial growth, indicating opportunities may exist for suppression efforts to adaptively manage these forests for climate change. The results of our spatiotemporal analysis provide new information about temporal and spatial dynamics of wildfires and have implications for modeling the terrestrial carbon cycle

Tropical biomass burning smoke plume size, shape, reflectance, and age based on 2001–2009 MISR imagery of Borneo

Land clearing for crops, plantations and grazing results in anthropogenic burning of tropical forests and peatlands in Indonesia, where images of fire-generated aerosol plumes have been captured by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) since 2001. Here we analyze the size, shape, optical properties, and age of distinct fire-generated plumes in Borneo from 2001–2009. The local MISR overpass at 10:30 a.m. misses the afternoon peak of Borneo fire emissions, and may preferentially sample longer plumes from persistent fires burning overnight. Typically the smoke flows with the prevailing southeasterly surface winds at 3–4 m s<sup>−1</sup>, and forms ovoid plumes whose mean length, height, and cross-plume width are 41 km, 708 m, and 27% of the plume length, respectively. 50% of these plumes have length between 24 and 50 km, height between 523 and 993 m and width between 18% and 30% of plume length. Length and cross-plume width are lognormally distributed, while height follows a normal distribution. Borneo smoke plume heights are similar to previously reported plume heights, yet Borneo plumes are on average nearly three times longer than previously studied plumes. This could be due to sampling or to more persistent fires and greater fuel loads in peatlands than in other tropical forests. Plume area (median 169 km<sup>2</sup>, with 25th and 75th percentiles at 99 km<sup>2</sup> and 304 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively) varies exponentially with length, though for most plumes a linear relation provides a good approximation. The MISR-estimated plume optical properties involve greater uncertainties than the geometric properties, and show patterns consistent with smoke aging. Optical depth increases by 15–25% in the down-plume direction, consistent with hygroscopic growth and nucleation overwhelming the effects of particle dispersion. Both particle single-scattering albedo and top-of-atmosphere reflectance peak about halfway down-plume, at values about 3% and 10% greater than at the origin, respectively. The initially oblong plumes become brighter and more circular with time, increasingly resembling smoke clouds. Wind speed does not explain a significant fraction of the variation in plume geometry. We provide a parameterization of plume shape that can help atmospheric models estimate the effects of plumes on weather, climate, and air quality. Plume age, the age of smoke furthest down-plume, is lognormally distributed with a median of 2.8 h (25th and 75th percentiles at 1.3 h and 4.0 h), different from the median ages reported in other studies. Intercomparison of our results with previous studies shows that the shape, height, optical depth, and lifetime characteristics reported for tropical biomass burning plumes on three continents are dissimilar and distinct from the same characteristics of non-tropical wildfire plumes

Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Niño?

During El Niño years, fires in tropical forests and peatlands in equatorial Asia create large regional smoke clouds. We characterized the sensitivity of these clouds to regional drought, and we investigated their effects on climate by using an atmospheric general circulation model. Satellite observations during 2000–2006 indicated that El Niño-induced regional drought led to increases in fire emissions and, consequently, increases in aerosol optical depths over Sumatra, Borneo and the surrounding ocean. Next, we used the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to investigate how climate responded to this forcing. We conducted two 30 year simulations in which monthly fire emissions were prescribed for either a high (El Niño, 1997) or low (La Niña, 2000) fire year using a satellite-derived time series of fire emissions. Our simulations included the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols on the radiation budget within the model. We assessed the radiative and climate effects of anthropogenic fire by analyzing the differences between the high and low fire simulations. Fire aerosols reduced net shortwave radiation at the surface during August–October by 19.1±12.9 W m<sup>−2</sup> (10%) in a region that encompassed most of Sumatra and Borneo (90° E–120° E, 5° S–5° N). The reductions in net shortwave radiation cooled sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land surface temperatures by 0.5±0.3 and 0.4±0.2 °C during these months. Tropospheric heating from black carbon (BC) absorption averaged 20.5±9.3 W m<sup>−2</sup> and was balanced by a reduction in latent heating. The combination of decreased SSTs and increased atmospheric heating reduced regional precipitation by 0.9±0.6 mm d<sup>−1</sup> (10%). The vulnerability of ecosystems to fire was enhanced because the decreases in precipitation exceeded those for evapotranspiration. Together, the satellite and modeling results imply a possible positive feedback loop in which anthropogenic burning in the region intensifies drought stress during El Niño

Influence of Reduced Carbon Emissions and Oxidation on the Distribution of Atmospheric CO2: Implications for Inversion Analyses

Recent inverse analyses constraining carbon fluxes using atmospheric CO2 observations have assumed that the CO2 source from atmospheric oxidation of reduced carbon is released at the surface rather than distributed globally in the atmosphere. This produces a bias in the estimates of surface fluxes. We used a three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric chemistry model (GEOS-CHEM) to evaluate the magnitude of this effect on modeled concentrations and flux estimates. We find that resolving the 3D structure of the atmospheric CO2 source, as opposed to emitting this reduced carbon as CO2 at the surface, yields a decrease in the modeled annual mean interhemispheric gradient (N-S) of 0.21 ppm. Larger adjustments (up to −0.6 ppm) are apparent on a regional basis in and downwind of regions of high reduced carbon emissions. We used TransCom3 annual mean simulations from three transport models to evaluate the implications for inversion estimates. The main impacts are systematic decreases in estimates of northern continental land uptake (i.e., by 0.22 to 0.26 Pg C yr−1), and reductions in tropical land carbon efflux with smaller changes over oceans and in the Southern Hemisphere. These adjustments represent a systematic bias in flux estimates, accounting for changes of 9 to 27% in the estimated northern land CO2 sink for the three models evaluated here. Our results highlight the need for a realistic description of reduced carbon emission and oxidation processes in deriving inversion estimates of CO2 surface fluxes.Earth and Planetary SciencesEngineering and Applied Science

Satellite-based Assessment of Climate Controls on US Burned Area

Climate regulates fire activity through the buildup and drying of fuels and the conditions for fire ignition and spread. Understanding the dynamics of contemporary climate-fire relationships at national and sub-national scales is critical to assess the likelihood of changes in future fire activity and the potential options for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we conducted the first national assessment of climate controls on US fire activity using two satellite-based estimates of monthly burned area (BA), the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, 1997 2010) and Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS, 1984 2009) BA products. For each US National Climate Assessment (NCA) region, we analyzed the relationships between monthly BA and potential evaporation (PE) derived from reanalysis climate data at 0.5 resolution. US fire activity increased over the past 25 yr, with statistically significant increases in MTBS BA for entire US and the Southeast and Southwest NCA regions. Monthly PE was strongly correlated with US fire activity, yet the climate driver of PE varied regionally. Fire season temperature and shortwave radiation were the primary controls on PE and fire activity in the Alaska, while water deficit (precipitation PE) was strongly correlated with fire activity in the Plains regions and Northwest US. BA and precipitation anomalies were negatively correlated in all regions, although fuel-limited ecosystems in the Southern Plains and Southwest exhibited positive correlations with longer lead times (6 12 months). Fire season PE in creased from the 1980s 2000s, enhancing climate-driven fire risk in the southern and western US where PE-BA correlations were strongest. Spatial and temporal patterns of increasing fire season PE and BA during the 1990s 2000s highlight the potential sensitivity of US fire activity to climate change in coming decades. However, climatefire relationships at the national scale are complex, based on the diversity of fire types, ecosystems, and ignition sources within each NCA region. Changes in the seasonality or magnitude of climate anomalies are therefore unlikely to result in uniform changes in US fire activity

The contribution of terrestrial sources and sinks to trends in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric carbon dioxide

We characterized decadal changes in the amplitude and shape of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO_2 with three kinds of analysis. First, we calculated the trends in the seasonal cycle of measured atmospheric CO_2 at observation stations in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory network. Second, we assessed the impact of terrestrial ecosystems in various localities on the mean seasonal cycle of CO_2 at observation stations using the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach terrestrial biosphere model and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric tracer transport model. Third, we used the GISS tracer model to quantify the contribution of terrestrial sources and sinks to trends in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO_2 for the period 1961–1990, specifically examining the effects of biomass burning, emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and regional increases in net primary production (NPP). Our analysis supports results from previous studies that indicate a significant positive increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of CO_2 at Arctic and subarctic observation stations. For stations north of 55°N the amplitude increased at a mean rate of 0.66% yr^(−1) from 1981 to 1995. From the analysis of ecosystem impacts on the mean seasonal cycle we find that tundra, boreal forest, and other northern ecosystems are responsible for most of the seasonal variation in CO_2 at stations north of 55°N. The effects of tropical biomass burning on trends in the seasonal cycle are minimal at these stations, probably because of strong vertical convection in equatorial regions. From 1981 to 1990, fossil fuel emissions contributed a trend of 0.20% yr^(−1) to the seasonal cycle amplitude at Mauna Loa and less than 0.10% yr^(−1) at stations north of 55°N. To match the observed amplitude increases at Arctic and subarctic stations with NPP increases, we find that north of 30°N a 1.7 Pg C yr^(−1) terrestrial sink would be required. In contrast, over regions south of 30°N, even large NPP increases and accompanying terrestrial sinks would be insufficient to account for the increase in high‐latitude amplitudes

Global burned area and biomass burning emissions from small fires

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001–2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia—regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes

Biomass burning contribution to black carbon in the Western United States Mountain Ranges

Forest fires are an important source to carbonaceous aerosols in the Western United States (WUS). We quantify the relative contribution of biomass burning to black carbon (BC) in the WUS mountain ranges by analyzing surface BC observations for 2006 from the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environment (IMPROVE) network using the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. Observed surface BC concentrations show broad maxima during late June to early November. Enhanced potassium concentrations and potassium/sulfur ratios observed during the high-BC events indicate a dominant biomass burning influence during the peak fire season. Model surface BC reproduces the observed day-to day and synoptic variabilities in regions downwind of but near urban centers. Major discrepancies are found at elevated mountainous sites during the July-October fire season when simulated BC concentrations are biased low by a factor of two. We attribute these low biases largely to the underestimated (by more than a factor of two) and temporally misplaced biomass burning emissions of BC in the model. Additionally, we find that the biomass burning contribution to surface BC concentrations in the USA likely was underestimated in a previous study using GEOS-Chem (Park et al., 2003), because of the unusually low planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights in the GEOS-3 meteorological reanalysis data used to drive the model. PBL heights from GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 reanalysis data are comparable to those from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Model simulations show slightly improved agreements with the observations when driven by GEOS-5 reanalysis data, but model results are still biased low. The use of biomass burning emissions with diurnal cycle, synoptic variability, and plume injection has relatively small impact on the simulated surface BC concentrations in the WUS

An atmospheric perspective on North American carbon dioxide exchange: CarbonTracker

We present an estimate of net CO2 exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere across North America for every week in the period 2000 through 2005. This estimate is derived from a set of 28,000 CO2 mole fraction observations in the global atmosphere that are fed into a state-of-the-art data assimilation system for CO2 called CarbonTracker. By design, the surface fluxes produced in CarbonTracker are consistent with the recent history of CO2 in the atmosphere and provide constraints on the net carbon flux independent from national inventories derived from accounting efforts. We find the North American terrestrial biosphere to have absorbed –0.65 PgC/yr (1 petagram = 10^15 g; negative signs are used for carbon sinks) averaged over the period studied, partly offsetting the estimated 1.85 PgC/yr release by fossil fuel burning and cement manufacturing. Uncertainty on this estimate is derived from a set of sensitivity experiments and places the sink within a range of –0.4 to –1.0 PgC/yr. The estimated sink is located mainly in the deciduous forests along the East Coast (32%) and the boreal coniferous forests (22%). Terrestrial uptake fell to –0.32 PgC/yr during the large-scale drought of 2002, suggesting sensitivity of the contemporary carbon sinks to climate extremes. CarbonTracker results are in excellent agreement with a wide collection of carbon inventories that form the basis of the first North American State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR), to be released in 2007. All CarbonTracker results are freely available at http://carbontracker.noaa.gov