Regression to the Mean and Judy Benjamin

Van Fraassen's Judy Benjamin problem asks how one ought to update one's credence in A upon receiving evidence of the sort ``A may or may not obtain, but B is k times likelier than C'', where {A,B,C} is a partition. Van Fraassen's solution, in the limiting case of increasing k, recommends a posterior converging to the probability of A conditional on A union B, where P is one's prior probability function. Grove and Halpern, and more recently Douven and Romeijn, have argued that one ought to leave credence in A unchanged, i.e. fixed at P(A). We argue that while the former approach is superior, it brings about a Reflection violation due in part to neglect of a ``regression to the mean'' phenomenon, whereby when C is eliminated by random evidence that leaves A and B alive, the ratio P(A):P(B) ought to drift in the direction of 1:1

On Equitable Non-Anonymous Review

Remco Heesen has recently argued in favor of the editorial practice of triple-anonymous review on the grounds that ``an injustice is committed against certain authors'' under non-anonymous review. On the other hand, he concedes that the information waste of triple-anonymous review does handicap editors, in particular sacrificing a boost in the average quality of accepted papers that would otherwise be conferred by non-anonymous review. In this paper it is observed that by devoting comparatively greater reviewing resources to the papers of unfamiliar authors, editors practicing non-anonymous review can, without loss of information, avoid subjecting authors to the sorts of injustices observed by Heesen. Thus they can reap the efficiency gains of non-anonymous review without sacrificing fairness

Random and Systematic Error in the Puzzle of the Unmarked Clock

A puzzle of an unmarked clock, used by Timothy Williamson to question the KK principle, was separately adapted by David Christensen and Adam Elga to critique a principle of Rational Reflection. Both authors, we argue, flout the received relationship between ideal agency and the classical distinction between systematic and random error, namely that ideal agents are subject only to the latter. As a result, these criticisms miss their mark

Existence is not Evidence for Immortality

Michael Huemer argues, on statistical grounds, that ``existence is evidence for immortality". On reasoning derived from the anthropic principle, however, mere existence cannot be evidence against any non-indexical, ``eternal'' hypothesis that predicts observers. This note attempts to advertise the much-flouted anthropic principle's virtues and workings in a new way, namely by calling attention to the fact that it is the primary intension of one's indexically-described evidence that best characterizes one's epistemic position

Comparative Behavior of \u3ci\u3ePyrellia Cyanicolor\u3c/i\u3e (Diptera: Muscidae) on the Moss \u3ci\u3eSplachnum Ampullaceum\u3c/i\u3e and on Substrates of Nutritional Value

(excerpt) Entomophily is commonly associated with flowering plants and their pollen vectors, but also occurs in other groups of plants. Among fungi, several genera of Phallaceae offer food rewards to calliphorid and muscid flies, which inadvertently disperse the fungal spores (Ingold 1964). Bryhn (1897) first noted a relationship between various species ofDiptera and members of the moss family Splachnaceae. The nature of this interaction has been the subject of much speculation (Bequaert 1921, Erlanson 1935, Crum et aI. 1972, Koponen and Koponen 1977), but no experimental evidence has been collected

Intermolecular Forces and the Glass Transition

Random first order transition theory is used to determine the role of attractive and repulsive interactions in the dynamics of supercooled liquids. Self-consistent phonon theory, an approximate mean field treatment consistent with random first order transition theory, is used to treat individual glassy configurations, while the liquid phase is treated using common liquid state approximations. The transition temperature $T^{*}_{A}$, the temperature where the onset of activated behavior is predicted by mean field theory, the lower crossover temperature $T_{c}^{*}$ where barrierless motions actually occur through fractal or stringy motions, and $T^{*}_{K}$, the Kauzmann temperature, are calculated in addition to $T^{*}_{g}$, the glass transition temperature that corresponds to laboratory cooling rates. Both the isobaric and isochoric behavior in the supercooled regime are studied, providing results for $\Delta C_{V}$ and $\Delta C_{p}$ that can be used to calculate the fragility as a function of density and pressure, respectively. The predicted variations in the $\alpha$-relaxation time with temperature and density conform to the empirical density-temperature scaling relations found by Casalini and Roland. We thereby demonstrate the microscopic origin of their observations. Finally, the relationship first suggested by Sastry between the spinodal temperature and the Kauzmann temperatures, as a function of density, is examined. The present microscopic calculations support the existence of an intersection of these two temperatures at sufficiently low temperatures.Comment: Submitted to J. Phys. Chem. A, June 2007 Replaced with accepted version Sept. 200

The Linkage Between Public and Private Investment: A Co-integration Analysis of a Panel of Developing Countries

This study uses panel data from 19 developing countries from 1980 to 1997 to examine the impact of public investment on private investment. A model is developed to identify both the short run and long-run effects of public investment on private investment, builds in the role of uncertainty on investment, and uses co-integration tests on panel data to check the time series properties of the data. The empirical results show that public investment is complementary to private investment in developing economies, and that credit constraints restrict the amount of private investment.