Testing the Dose–Response Specification in Epidemiology: Public Health and Policy Consequences for Lead

Statistical evaluation of the dose–response function in lead epidemiology is rarely attempted. Economic evaluation of health benefits of lead reduction usually assumes a linear dose–response function, regardless of the outcome measure used. We reanalyzed a previously published study, an international pooled data set combining data from seven prospective lead studies examining contemporaneous blood lead effect on IQ (intelligence quotient) of 7-year-old children (n = 1,333). We constructed alternative linear multiple regression models with linear blood lead terms (linear–linear dose response) and natural-log–transformed blood lead terms (log-linear dose response). We tested the two lead specifications for nonlinearity in the models, compared the two lead specifications for significantly better fit to the data, and examined the effects of possible residual confounding on the functional form of the dose–response relationship. We found that a log-linear lead–IQ relationship was a significantly better fit than was a linear–linear relationship for IQ (p = 0.009), with little evidence of residual confounding of included model variables. We substituted the log-linear lead–IQ effect in a previously published health benefits model and found that the economic savings due to U.S. population lead decrease between 1976 and 1999 (from 17.1 μg/dL to 2.0 μg/dL) was 2.2 times ($319 billion) that calculated using a linear–linear dose–response function ($149 billion). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention action limit of 10 μg/dL for children fails to protect against most damage and economic cost attributable to lead exposure

A comparison of A-level performance in economics and business studies: how much more difficult is economics?

This paper uses ALIS data to compare academic performance in two subjects often viewed as relatively close substitutes for one another at A-level. The important role of GCSE achievement is confirmed for both subjects. There is evidence of strong gender effects and variation in outcomes across Examination Boards. A counterfactual exercise suggests that if the sample of Business Studies candidates had studied Economics nearly 40% of those who obtained a grade C or better in the former subject would not have done so in the latter. The opposite exercise uggests that 12% more Economics candidates would have achieved a grade C or better if they had taken Business Studies. In order to render a Business Studies A-level grade comparable to an Economics one in terms of relative difficulty, we estimate that a downward adjustment of 1.5 UCAS points should be applied to the former subject. This adjustment is lower than that suggested by correction factors based on conventional subject pair analysis for these two subjects

Reciprocity as a foundation of financial economics

This paper argues that the subsistence of the fundamental theorem of contemporary financial mathematics is the ethical concept ‘reciprocity’. The argument is based on identifying an equivalence between the contemporary, and ostensibly ‘value neutral’, Fundamental Theory of Asset Pricing with theories of mathematical probability that emerged in the seventeenth century in the context of the ethical assessment of commercial contracts in a framework of Aristotelian ethics. This observation, the main claim of the paper, is justified on the basis of results from the Ultimatum Game and is analysed within a framework of Pragmatic philosophy. The analysis leads to the explanatory hypothesis that markets are centres of communicative action with reciprocity as a rule of discourse. The purpose of the paper is to reorientate financial economics to emphasise the objectives of cooperation and social cohesion and to this end, we offer specific policy advice

Stochastic Gravity: Theory and Applications

Whereas semiclassical gravity is based on the semiclassical Einstein equation with sources given by the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of quantum fields, stochastic semiclassical gravity is based on the Einstein-Langevin equation, which has in addition sources due to the noise kernel.In the first part, we describe the fundamentals of this new theory via two approaches: the axiomatic and the functional. In the second part, we describe three applications of stochastic gravity theory. First, we consider metric perturbations in a Minkowski spacetime: we compute the two-point correlation functions for the linearized Einstein tensor and for the metric perturbations. Second, we discuss structure formation from the stochastic gravity viewpoint. Third, we discuss the backreaction of Hawking radiation in the gravitational background of a quasi-static black hole.Comment: 75 pages, no figures, submitted to Living Reviews in Relativit

Hospital competition, resource allocation and quality of care

BACKGROUND: A variety of approaches have been used to contain escalating hospital costs. One approach is intensifying price competition. The increase in price based competition, which changes the incentives hospitals face, coupled with the fact that consumers can more easily evaluate the quality of hotel services compared with the quality of clinical care, may lead hospitals to allocate more resources into hotel rather than clinical services. METHODS: To test this hypothesis we studied hospitals in California in 1982 and 1989, comparing resource allocations prior to and following selective contracting, a period during which the focus of competition changed from quality to price. We estimated the relationship between clinical outcomes, measured as risk-adjusted-mortality rates, and resources. RESULTS: In 1989, higher competition was associated with lower clinical expenditures levels compared with 1982. The trend was stronger for non-profit hospitals. Lower clinical resource use was associated with worse risk adjusted mortality outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This study raises concerns that cost reductions may be associated with increased mortality

Stochastic Gravity: Theory and Applications

Whereas semiclassical gravity is based on the semiclassical Einstein equation with sources given by the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of quantum fields, stochastic semiclassical gravity is based on the Einstein-Langevin equation, which has in addition sources due to the noise kernel. In the first part, we describe the fundamentals of this new theory via two approaches: the axiomatic and the functional. In the second part, we describe three applications of stochastic gravity theory. First, we consider metric perturbations in a Minkowski spacetime, compute the two-point correlation functions of these perturbations and prove that Minkowski spacetime is a stable solution of semiclassical gravity. Second, we discuss structure formation from the stochastic gravity viewpoint. Third, we discuss the backreaction of Hawking radiation in the gravitational background of a black hole and describe the metric fluctuations near the event horizon of an evaporating black holeComment: 100 pages, no figures; an update of the 2003 review in Living Reviews in Relativity gr-qc/0307032 ; it includes new sections on the Validity of Semiclassical Gravity, the Stability of Minkowski Spacetime, and the Metric Fluctuations of an Evaporating Black Hol

Supine posture changes lung volumes and increases ventilation heterogeneity in cystic fibrosis

INTRODUCTION: Lung Clearance Index (LCI) is recognised as an early marker of cystic fibrosis (CF) lung disease. The effect of posture on LCI however is important when considering longitudinal measurements from infancy and when comparing LCI to imaging studies. METHODS: 35 children with CF and 28 healthy controls (HC) were assessed. Multiple breath washout (MBW) was performed both sitting and supine in triplicate and analysed for LCI, Scond, Sacin, and lung volumes. These values were also corrected for the Fowler dead-space to create 'alveolar' indices. RESULTS: From sitting to supine there was a significant increase in LCI and a significant decrease in FRC for both CF and HC (p<0.01). LCI, when adjusted to estimate 'alveolar' LCI (LCIalv), increased the magnitude of change with posture for both LCIalv and FRCalv in both groups, with a greater effect of change in lung volume in HC compared with children with CF. The % change in LCIalv for all subjects correlated significantly with lung volume % changes, most notably tidal volume/functional residual capacity (Vtalv/FRCalv (r = 0.54,p<0.001)). CONCLUSION: There is a significant increase in LCI from sitting to supine, which we believe to be in part due to changes in lung volume and also increasing ventilation heterogeneity related to posture. This may have implications in longitudinal measurements from infancy to older childhood and for studies comparing supine imaging methods to LCI

The cost effectiveness of an early transition from hospital to nursing home for stroke patients: design of a comparative study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As the incidence of stroke has increased, its impact on society has increased accordingly, while it continues to have a major impact on the individual. New strategies to further improve the quality, efficiency and logistics of stroke services are necessary. Early discharge from hospital to a nursing home with an adequate rehabilitation programme could help to optimise integrated care for stroke patients.</p> <p>The objective is to describe the design of a non-randomised comparative study evaluating early admission to a nursing home, with multidisciplinary assessment, for stroke patients. The study is comprised of an effect evaluation, an economic evaluation and a process evaluation.</p> <p>Methods/design</p> <p>The design involves a non-randomised comparative trial for two groups. Participants are followed for 6 months from the time of stroke. The intervention consists of a redesigned care pathway for stroke patients. In this care pathway, patients are discharged from hospital to a nursing home within 5 days, in comparison with 12 days in the usual situation. In the nursing home a structured assessment takes place, aimed at planning adequate rehabilitation. People in the control group receive the usual care. The main outcome measures of the effect evaluation are quality of life and daily functioning. In addition, an economic evaluation will be performed from a societal perspective. A process evaluation will be carried out to evaluate the feasibility of the intervention as well as the experiences and opinions of patients and professionals.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The results of this study will provide information about the cost effectiveness of the intervention and its effects on clinical outcomes and quality of life. Relevant strengths and weaknesses of the study are addressed in this article.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trails ISRCTN58135104</p

Magnesium Limitation Is an Environmental Trigger of the Pseudomonas aeruginosa Biofilm Lifestyle

Biofilm formation is a conserved strategy for long-term bacterial survival in nature and during infections. Biofilms are multicellular aggregates of cells enmeshed in an extracellular matrix. The RetS, GacS and LadS sensors control the switch from a planktonic to a biofilm mode of growth in Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Here we detail our approach to identify environmental triggers of biofilm formation by investigating environmental conditions that repress expression of the biofilm repressor RetS. Mg2+ limitation repressed the expression of retS leading to increased aggregation, exopolysaccharide (EPS) production and biofilm formation. Repression of retS expression under Mg2+ limitation corresponded with induced expression of the GacA-controlled small regulatory RNAs rsmZ and rsmY and the EPS biosynthesis operons pel and psl. We recently demonstrated that extracellular DNA sequesters Mg2+ cations and activates the cation-sensing PhoPQ two-component system, which leads to increased antimicrobial peptide resistance in biofilms. Here we show that exogenous DNA and EDTA, through their ability to chelate Mg2+, promoted biofilm formation. The repression of retS in low Mg2+ was directly controlled by PhoPQ. PhoP also directly controlled expression of rsmZ but not rsmY suggesting that PhoPQ controls the equilibrium of the small regulatory RNAs and thus fine-tunes the expression of genes in the RetS pathway. In summary, Mg2+ limitation is a biologically relevant environmental condition and the first bonafide environmental signal identified that results in transcriptional repression of retS and promotes P. aeruginosa biofilm formation