A Small Dynamic Hybrid Model for the Euro Area

The authors estimate and solve a small structural model for the euro area over the 1983–2000 period. Given the assumption of rational expectations, the model implies a set of orthogonality conditions that provide the basis for estimating the model’s parameter by generalized method of moments. The authors’ main results are: (i) the impulse-response functions implied by the model are consistent with the standard stylized facts about the dynamic effects of monetary policy, (ii) evidence suggests that flexibility in Europe has increased since the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty, and (iii) the inflation expectations captured by the model might explain the European Central Bank’s reluctance to ease monetary conditions in 2000.Transmission of monetary policy

Changes in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Monetary Aggregates

Although many countries have abandoned monetary targeting in recent decades, monetary aggregates are still useful indicators of future economic activity. Past research has shown that, compared with other monetary aggregates and expressed in real terms, net M1 and gross M1 have traditionally provided superior leading information for output growth. Yet financial innovations and the elimination of reserve requirements over the past two decades have made it increasingly difficult for financial institutions to differentiate between demand and notice deposits, suggesting the need to re-examine the information content of narrow monetary aggregates that depend on such a distinction. Based on an analysis over a sample period from 1975Q1 to 2005Q1, the authors determine that the leading-indicator properties of the narrow monetary aggregates for output growth have shifted over time and that, since 1993, real M1+ has become a better indicator of future output growth than real gross and net M1.

Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?

Of particular concern to monetary policy-makers is the considerable unreliability of financial variables for predicting GDP growth and inflation. As Stock and Watson (2003) find, some financial variables work well in some countries or over some time periods and forecast horizons, but the results do not show any clear pattern. This may be caused by the changing nature of financial structures within countries across time, or the differing types of financial structures across countries. The authors assess the extent to which financial structure across countries influences the information content of financial variables for predicting real GDP growth and inflation. Their assumption is that financial asset prices will dominate financial quantities in economies with highly developed market-based financial systems. The authors use standard methods to determine the predictive content of common financial asset prices and quantities for 29 countries. They find no systematic pattern between financial structure and whether financial asset prices or quantities are the best financial indicators for monetary policy. Importantly, financial quantities are sometimes the best financial indicator, even in economies with highly developed market-based financial systems. The authors conclude that it would be difficult to tell, a priori, whether a financial asset price or quantity would be the best indicator for monetary policy for a particular country at a particular point in time.Inflation and prices; Business fluctuations and cycles; Credit and credit aggregates; Monetary aggregates; Interest rates

A comparative performance analysis based on artificial intelligence techniques applied to three-phase induction motor drives

In this work, we introduced a new robust hybrid control to an induction motor (IM), based on the theory of fuzzy logic and variable structure with sliding-mode control (SMC). As the variations of both control system parameters and operating conditions occur, the conventional control methods may not be satisfied further. Fuzzy tuning schemes are employed to improve control performance and to reduce chattering in the sliding mode. The combination of these two theories has given high performance and fast dynamic response with no overshoot. As it is very robust, it is insensitive to process parameters variation and external disturbances

JĘZYKI BERBERYJSKIE W TEKSTACH KONSTYTUCJI ALGIERSKICH. ANALIZA PRAKTYK DYSKURSYWNYCH W UJĘCIU DYSKURSYWNYM I JURYSLINGWISTYCZNYM

Our contribution consists in analyzing the discursive practices of the three Algerian constitutional texts (1996, 2002, and 2016) dedicated to the constititionalisation of the Amazigh language. It is about showing and putting in evidence, through a textual and pragmatic analysis of these texts, the status and the definition that has been scattered over the national territory. To carry out our analysis, we will mainly appeal to the field of jurilinguistics. Moreover, the Amazigh language is defined in the constitution as a set of certified varieties throughout the national territory.Résumé : Notre contribution consiste à analyser les pratiques discursives des trois textes constitutionnels algériens (1996, 2002 et 2016) dédiés à la à la constitutionnalisation de la langue amazighe. Il s’agit de montrer et de dégager, à travers une analyse textuelle et pragmatique de ces textes, le statut et la définition qui lui a été réservée en tant que langue qui se présente sous forme de plusieurs variétés dispersées sur le territoire national.   Pour mener à bien notre analyse, nous ferons appel principalement au domaine de la jurilinguistique.  Par ailleurs, la langue amazighe est définie dans la constitution prise comme un ensemble de variétés attestées dans le territoire national.Przedmiotem niniejszego artykułu jest analiza praktyk dyskursywnych w trzech algierskich tekstach konstytucyjnych (1996, 2002 oraz 2016) w zakresie konstytucjonalizacji języka tamazight. Analiza tekstowa i pragmatyczna tych tekstów ma na celu przybliżenie statusu oraz definicji tego języka jako języka wernakularnego, używanego pod postacią różnych narzeczy występujących na terytorium narodowym. Główny punkt odniesienia dla analizy stanowią prace z dziedziny juryslingwistyki. Także w konstytucji język tamazight jest definiowany jako narzeczy, których istnienie zostało odnotowane na terytorium narodowym

Human influence on changes in the distribution of land precipitation

SummaryThe evolution of the distribution of observed land precipitation over 1901–2010 and 1979–2010 is analyzed and compared with 14 simulations from the CMIP5 climate models. Firstly, two different quantile-based mapping methods are used to bias-correct the simulated monthly land precipitation. The results show a very slight difference in mean annual values between the two methods. Secondly, the comparison between observed and simulated land precipitation suggests that anthropogenic forcing most likely caused the redistribution of the repartition of land precipitation, decreasing the extent of arid area (area with precipitation range between 50 and 300mm/yr), and increasing the extent of area with a precipitation range between 450 and 900mm/yr. However, the observed changes are larger than estimated from model simulations. The future RCP8.5 (2010–2100) simulations are also analyzed. Therefore, all 14 model simulations show the same trend pattern, only slightly different from that found over 1979–2010 but with reduced spread

The influencing factors on the level of satisfaction and loyalty of international students' at Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM)

Numerous studies have been conducted to explore the factors affecting students‟ satisfaction. However, limited studies have proved this investigation in the context of Malaysian educational institutions, specifically UUM. The declining number of international students in UUM has initiated the importance to study the factors affecting international students‟ satisfaction and loyalty. This study attempted to investigate the factors of education, technology, library services, accommodation, organization and management of programs, image and prestige of UUM that influence on international students‟ satisfaction and loyalty. 296 international students from undergraduate and graduate programs were used as a sample of this study. Regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between independent variables (education, technology, accommodation, library services, organization and management of programs, image and prestige, and dependent variable (international students‟ satisfaction). This study found that education, technology, organization and management of programs, image and prestige were positively influenced on the international students‟ satisfaction in UUM. In the same manner, this study examined the international students‟ loyalty as an outcome of international students‟ satisfaction. The finding revealed a positive relationship between international students‟ satisfaction and international students‟ loyalty. It is hoped that this study would add on management literatures and also contribute significantly to managerial practices that could help the management to focus more on these dimensions to further increase international students‟ satisfaction and loyalt

Simulations du ratio du service de la dette des consommateurs en utilisant des données micro

The author constructs a formal analytic framework to simulate the impact of various economic shocks on the household debt-service ratio, using data from the Canadian Financial Monitor (CFM) survey. The impact of these shocks on individual households depends on the socio-economic characteristics of the latter. The framework also allows consideration of both symmetric and asymmetric shocks to incomes. The author's work is original in several respects: it captures the heterogeneity of the impact of these shocks on households, it uses cross-sectional data to estimate credit-growth equations, and it determines household credit growth based on income, interest rates, and housing prices. To illustrate the usefulness of his approach, the author provides income, debt, and interest rate scenarios, and then simulates his model over twelve periods. This methodology can, of course, be used with other microdata.Econometric and statistical methods; Financial stability