Data from: Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RNE) and slope (RNS) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973–2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RNE (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RNS did not. Concordantly, we found strong directional selection on RNE, but not RNS, of egg-laying date in the second third of the study period; this selection subsequently waned, potentially due to increased between-year variability in optimal laying dates. We found individual and additive genetic variation in RNE but, contrary to previous studies on our population, not in RNS. The predicted and observed evolutionary change in RNE were, however, marginal, due to low heritability and the sex limitation of laying date. We conclude that adaptation to climate change can only occur via micro-evolution of RNE, but this will necessarily be slow and potentially hampered by increased variability in phenotypic optima

Bovio e la sinistra storica

Phenotypic plasticity is a central topic in ecology and evolution. Individuals may differ in the degree of plasticity (individual-by-environment interaction (I×E)), which has implications for the capacity of populations to respond to selection. Random regression models (RRMs) are a popular tool to study I×E in behavioural or life-history traits, yet evidence for I×E is mixed, differing between species, populations, and even between studies on the same population. One important source of discrepancies between studies is the treatment of heterogeneity in residual variance (heteroscedasticity). To date, there seems to be no collective awareness among ecologists of its influence on the estimation of I×E or a consensus on how to best model it. We performed RRMs with differing residual variance structures on simulated data with varying degrees of heteroscedasticity and plasticity, sample size and environmental variability to test how RRMs would perform under each scenario. The residual structure in the RRMs affected the precision of estimates of simulated I×E as well as statistical power, with substantial lack of precision and high false-positive rates when sample size, environmental variability and plasticity were small. We show that model comparison using information criteria can be used to choose among residual structures, and reinforce this point by analysis of real data of two study populations of great tits (Parus major). We provide guidelines that can be used by biologists studying I×E that, ultimately, should lead to a reduction in bias in the literature concerning the statistical evidence and the reported magnitude of variation in plasticity

Pedigree_flycatchers

Pedigree file linking to the phenotype file

Flycatcher_LD_file

Phenotype (laying date) file for Pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) in the Hoge Veluwe, N

Data from: Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change, heritability and selection, are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale. Using 16 populations from 10 vertebrate species, which provided data on 50 traits (body mass, morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history), we found evidence for an environmentally induced relationship between heritability and selection in only 6 cases, with weak evidence that this resulted in an increase or decrease in expected selection response. We conclude that such a coupling of heritability and selection is unlikely to strongly affect evolutionary change even though both heritability and selection are commonly postulated to be environment dependent

Pedigree_flycatchers

Pedigree file linking to the phenotype file

Data from: Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change, heritability and selection, are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale. Using 16 populations from 10 vertebrate species, which provided data on 50 traits (body mass, morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history), we found evidence for an environmentally induced relationship between heritability and selection in only 6 cases, with weak evidence that this resulted in an increase or decrease in expected selection response. We conclude that such a coupling of heritability and selection is unlikely to strongly affect evolutionary change even though both heritability and selection are commonly postulated to be environment dependent

Data from: Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change, heritability and selection, are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale. Using 16 populations from 10 vertebrate species, which provided data on 50 traits (body mass, morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history), we found evidence for an environmentally induced relationship between heritability and selection in only 6 cases, with weak evidence that this resulted in an increase or decrease in expected selection response. We conclude that such a coupling of heritability and selection is unlikely to strongly affect evolutionary change even though both heritability and selection are commonly postulated to be environment dependent