STOCK MARKET AND VOLATILITY SPILLOVER: EVIDENCE FROM VAR-GARCH ANALYSIS OF BRICS AND THE US

The thesis paper aims to investigate the volatility spillover effects from the stock market of the United States to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). In this study, I have employed VAR-GARCH framework on weekly return MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) index of respective stock markets to analyze the volatility transmission mechanism between stock market of the US and BRICS. The data sample is divided into one full period from January 2000 to December 2016 and three different sub-periods as pre-crisis period, financial crisis period and post-crisis period. The result of VAR (1) - GARCH (1, 1) model employed to examine the volatility spillover between the US and the BRICS markets shows that most of the BRICS nations are affected during the global financial crisis period rather than the normal period. The result indicates that the presence of shocks transmission and volatility spillover during the global financial crisis 2007-09 is significant compared to the normal period. The result suggests that volatility spillover between the US and Brazil is high as compared to rest of the BRICS nations. The market of Russia, South Africa and China are affected relatively less than Brazil by volatility of the US market in the normal period. The presence of minimal impact suggests that most of the BRICS stock market behaves independently during the normal period. Moreover, the result shows that Russia is the most independent market followed by China during normal period despite of being affected by the US during the financial crisis. The findings also reveal that all BRICS market has significant effects of own-lagged past return innovations (shocks) and past conditional volatilities on their current volatilities. In addition, the evidence of short term influence of South Africa on the US can be used for further study on stock market interdependence of both markets. Furthermore, my study on stock market volatility during the normal period as well as financial turmoil period provides useful information to researchers, financial market regulators as well as investors to know the behavior of emerging stock markets.fi=Opinnäytetyö kokotekstinä PDF-muodossa.|en=Thesis fulltext in PDF format.|sv=Lärdomsprov tillgängligt som fulltext i PDF-format

Forest Cover Change Pattern after the Intervention of Community Forestry Management System in the Mid-Hill of Nepal : A Case Study

An account of widespread degradation and deforestation in Nepal has been noticed in various literature sources. Although the contribution of community forests (CF) on the improvement of forest cover and condition in the Mid-hill of Nepal is positive, detailed study to understand the current situation seems important. The study area (Tanahun District) lies in the Gandaki Province of western Nepal. The objective of this study was to estimate the forest cover change over the specified period and to identify factors influencing the change. We used Landsat images from the years 1976, 1991, and 2015 to classify land use and land cover. We considered community perception in addition to the forest cover map to understand the different causes of forest cover change. Forest cover decreased from 1976 to 1991 annually at a rate of 0.96%. After 1991, the forest increased annually at a rate of 0.63%. The overall forest cover in the district regained its original status. Factors related to increasing forest cover were emigration, occupation shift, agroforestry practices, as well as particularly by plantation on barren lands, awareness among forest users, and conservation activities conducted by local inhabitants after the government forest was handed over to community members as a community forest management system.Peer reviewe

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Spatiotemporal variation of potential evapotranspiration and meteorological drought based on multi-source data in Nepal

Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamic of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in topographically complex country are often limited by the scarcity and difficulty in obtaining ground-based measured climate data. Remote sensing products have multiple advantage, which allows rapid acquisition of information and status over large areas and long time series. This study compared and explored the spatiotemporal variation of PET across Nepal using three widely-used remote sensing and reanalysis data PET products (CRU_PET, MODIS_PET and PML_PET), and PET estimation using Hargreaves-Samani method based on CHIRTS datasets. On the basis of this, the spatiotemporal dynamic at seasonal and annual level and the periodical change of PET and meteorological aridity index AI (precipitation P/PET) were identified using Mann-Kendall test and Morlet Wavelet method. These PET products showed general spatial consistency over most areas in Nepal with higher PET in the south and less in the north. However, great differences were also found in PET values for four different products. Compared with the three remote sensing and reanalysis data products, CHIRTS_PET performs better in Nepal. The AI based on CHIRTS_PET showed an insignificant increasing (wetting) trend in the western and southern regions, while an insignificant decreasing (drying) trend in the central and northeastern region, which is generally consistent with the spatial pattern of precipitation. In the western and southern regions, the positive impact of increasing precipitation on AI masked the negative effect of increasing PET, and thus making this region getting humid. However, in the central and northeastern region, the increase in PET aggravates the impact of reduced precipitation on the drying trend. Our investigation have broad implications for sustainable water resources management under climate change in a topographically complex country like Nepal

Land use/land cover change assessment of Mohana watershed (Far-Western Nepal) using GIS and remote sensing

The present study was conducted in the Mohana watershed of Far-western Nepal to assess land use land cover change. The study has used ArcGIS and three Landsat images - Landsat TM (1999), Landsat ETM+ (2009), and Landsat OLI (2019) – to analyze land use the land cover change of the watershed. The change matrix technique was used for change detection analysis. The study area was classified into five classes; forest, agriculture, built-up, water bodies, and barren lands. The study has found that among the five identified classes forest and build-up increased positively from 45.40 % to 51.51 % - forest cover and 11.26 % to 19. 85 % - build-up respectively. Similarly, agricultural land and water bodies initially increased but after 2009 both land cover areas decreased to 23.79 % and 0.73 % from 31.38 % and 0.97 % in 2009 respectively. Barren land decreased from 15.37% to 4.12% over the last 20 years. This study might support land-use planners and policymakers to adopt the best suitable land use management option for the Mohana watershed

Demography and viability of the largest population of greater one-horned rhinoceros in Nepal

Megaherbivores are characterized by slow life history traits which when coupled with human exploitation makes them vulnerable to local extinctions. An understanding of key demographic parameters assists in guiding management interventions to ensure their recovery and persistence over the longer term. We monitored 110 (30 calves, 80 young and adults) individually known greater one-horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) for seven years in Chitwan National Park, Nepal (2009–15). Using known fate model with staggered entry design in program MARK we estimated annual calf survival at 0.765 ± 0.026 SE and that of remaining older age groups between 0.96 and 0.985. Both genders exhibited a typical Type I survivorship curve. The population consisted of 62% adults, 13% sub-adults and 26% juveniles and calves (dependent animals). The adult sex ratio (female: male) was 1.23 ± 0.09 SE and dependent: cow ratio was 0.636 ± 0.03 SE. Age at first calving was 7.91 years ± 0.31 SE. Shorter inter-calving intervals were observed for young adults compared to old adults. Overall inter-calving interval was 41.28 months ± 2.33 SE. Chitwan rhino population grew at a maximum realized rate of r = 0.051 ± 0.005 SE. PHVA results showed that low level continuous poaching increased extinction probability compared to high but intermittent poaching episodes. An increase in annual poaching of over six females and 12 males over the current average of 5.5 rhinos per year, coupled with habitat degradation, caused by the alien invasive Mikania micrantha resulted in high extinction risks. Annually upto 13 rhinos (8 males and 5 females) from Chitwan can be used for reintroduction and supplementation of rhinoceros across their current and historic range

Seismic Fragility Analysis of Low-Rise RC Buildings with Brick Infills in High Seismic Region with Alluvial Deposits

Most of the reinforced concrete buildings in Nepal are low-rise construction, as this type of construction is the most dominant structural form adopted to construct residential buildings in urban and semi-urban neighborhoods throughout the country. The low-rise residential constructions generally follow the guidelines recommended by the Nepal Building Code, especially the mandatory rules of thumb. Although low-rise buildings have brick infills and are randomly constructed, infill walls and soil–structure interaction effects are generally neglected in the design and assessment of such structures. To this end, bare frame models that are used to represent such structures are questionable, especially when seismic vulnerability analysis is concerned. To fulfil this gap, we performed seismic vulnerability analysis of low-rise residential RC buildings considering infill walls and soil–structure interaction effects. Considering four analysis cases, we outline comparative seismic vulnerability for various analysis cases in terms of fragility functions. The sum of observations highlights that the effects of infills, and soil–structure interaction are damage state sensitive for low-rise RC buildings. Meanwhile, the design considerations will be significantly affected since some performance parameters are more sensitive than the overall fragility. We also observed that the analytical fragility models fundamentally overestimate the actual seismic fragility in the case of low-rise RC buildings

Psychological impact of COVID-19 among health-care workers in Nepal: An analytical cross-sectional study

Context: Many psychological problems including stress, anxiety, insomnia, depression, frustration, denial, anger, and fear emerged during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Aims: This study was done to assess the prevalence and associated factors of depression, anxiety, stress, insomnia, and fear experienced by health-care workers (HWs) during COVID-19 in Nepal. Settings and Design: This was web-based analytical cross-sectional study conducted among health-care workers from December 27, 2020, to February 28, 2021, all over Nepal. Subjects and Methods: All the HWs including doctors, nurses, and allied health-care professional from 7 provinces were selected using convenience sampling technique. Data collection was done using the validated questionnaires. Statistical Analysis Used: Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to find the association between the different variables. Statistical significance was set at P < 0.05. Results: A total of 608 HWs completed the survey with a mean age of 30.82 ± 6.68. About 27% had symptoms of depression, 28% anxiety, 10% stress, 18% insomnia, and 49.8% fear of COVID-19. Resident doctors and health workers who had bachelor level of education and working experience <2 years were significantly associated with higher odds of experiencing depression and anxiety. Health workers working 2–5 years and with more than 5 years' experience had significantly lower odds of experiencing fear. History of tobacco use or medical condition had significantly higher odds of experiencing depression, anxiety, stress, insomnia, and fear. Conclusions: This study concluded that the prevalence of depression, anxiety, insomnia, and fear was found to be high. Resident doctors and health workers with bachelor level of education, working experience <2 years, and history of medical condition were significantly associated with experiencing adverse mental health outcomes