Long memory and nonlinearities in realized volatility: a Markov switching approach.

Goal of this paper is to analyze and forecast realized volatility through nonlinear and highly persistent dynamics. In particular, we propose a model that simultaneously captures long memory and nonlinearities in which level and persistence shift through a Markov switching dynamics. We consider an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate parameters, latent process and predictive densities. The insample results show that both long memory and nonlinearities are significant and improve the description of the data. The out-sample results at several forecast horizons, show that introducing these nonlinearities produces superior forecasts over those obtained from nested models.

Policy Rules, Regime Switches, and Trend Inflation: An Empirical Investigation for the U.S.

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters, switches in policy shocks' volatility, and time-varying trend inflation using post-WWII U.S. data. The model embedding the stochastic target performs better in terms of data-fit and identification of the changes in the FOMC's chairmanships. Policy breaks are found not to be synchronized with variations in policy shocks' volatilities. Finally, we detect a negative correlation between systematic monetary policy aggressiveness and inflation gap persistence.

Adaptive MCMC methods for inference on affine stochastic volatility models with jumps

In this paper we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to estimate stochastic volatility models with jumps and affine structure. Our idea relies on the use of adaptive methods that aim at reducing the asymptotic variance of the estimates. We focus on the Delayed Rejection algorithm in order to find accurate proposals and to efficiently simulate the volatility path. Furthermore, Bayesian model selection is addressed through the use of reduced runs of the MCMC together with an auxiliary particle filter necessary to evaluate the likelihood function. An empirical application based on the study of the Dow Jones Composite 65 and of the FTSE 100 financial indexes is presented to study some empirical properties of the algorithm implemented

Policy rules, regime switches, and trend inflation: an empirical investigation for the United States

This paper estimates Taylor rules featuring instabilities in policy parameters and switches in policy shocksvolatility for the post-WWII U.S. economy. We contrast a rule embedding a fixed-inflation target with another featuring trend inflation, i.e. a time-varying inflation target. The rule embedding trend inflation turns out to be a) empirically superior according to a marginal likelihood-based comparison, and b) more able to pin down some relevant episodes of the post-WWII U.S. monetary policy history. Estimates conducted with Greenbook data confirm the empirical superiority of the rule featuring a time-varying inflation target. A comparison with recently published estimates of trend inflation is also conducte

Innovation adoption and farm profitability: What role for research and information sources?

The paper analyses the determinants of farmers\u2019 adoption of innovations and studies the effect of the source of information and the connection with agricultural research on the contribution of innovation to farm performance. The paper uses primary data collected ad hoc in the Province of Bologna (Emilia-Romagna, Italy) and analyses it through an econometric analysis. The results indicate that structural factors and farm specialisation still play a relevant role in innovation adoption. Connection to scientific research triggers significant improvements in terms of value-added and qual-ity of production but does not affect other profitability-related parameters. The results confirm the need for policy to better consider the role of intermediate actors between research and the farmer as well as to better clarify the final performance strategy in order to set the policy instruments right. The paper also highlights the need for fur-ther research about farms\u2019 proactivity in searching for and selecting information dur-ing the process of innovation adoption and competitive advantages in terms of profitability components

Implementation of the Water Framework Directive in Italy: state of the art and selected research issues

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) was implemented rather late in Italy. The actual implementation took place in 2006 with decree 152/2006 but the Directive was not completely effective until the beginning of 2009, when law 13/2009 provided for the implementation of river basin plans by basin authorities. The objective of this paper is to describe the implementation of the WFD in Italy and to discuss selected policy and research issues. The paper begins with an introduction highlighting the specificities of Italy in terms of water management. With regard to implementation, the general administrative setting, as well as the interpretation of WFD categories related to economic evaluations will be illustrated. Two major issues of particularly high relevance in the present debate are then discussed: a) the evaluation of environmental and resource costs; and b) water regulation in agriculture.Department of Agricultural Economics and Engineering, University of Bologna (Italy). Department of Statistics, University of Bologna (Italy)

Cooperative Management of Ecosystem Services: Coalition Formation, Landscape Structure and Policies

A growing body of literature shows that full-cooperation among farmers to manage productive ecosystem services would yield gains with respect to uncoordinated approaches. The public good feature of these ecosystem services may, however, hinder the emergence of a cooperative solution at the landscape scale. In this paper, we introduce in a coalition formation game a spatially-explicit bioeconomic model of fruit pollination, where pollinaton depends on the distance to the choosen location of natural habitats. We analyse: (i) which coalitions are stable; (ii) what benefits they provide; (iii) how cooperation depends on the initial landscape structure; and (iv) how policy instruments affect cooperation. The theoretical model presents the rationality of cooperation but, due to the detailed heterogeneity and complex spatial interactions among farms, we use a numerical example to determine the stable coalitions. We find that only small coalitions are stable and that the benefits of cooperation decrease when the spatial autocorrelation of fruit tree covers increase. Policy instruments can increase the interest for cooperation but per-hectare payments and minimum participation rules may reduce the habitat area at the margin (by decreasing the stability of coalitions). Price premium for the coalition members increase the habitat area but its budget-effectiveness decreases as the spatial autocorrelation of fruit tree covers increase

Evidence that muscle cells do not express the histidine-rich glycoprotein associated with AMP deaminase but can internalise the plasma protein

Histidine-rich glycoprotein (HRG) is synthesized by liver and is present at relatively high concentration in the plasma of vertebrates. We have previously described the association of a HRG-like molecule to purified rabbit skeletal muscle AMP deaminase (AMPD). We also provided the first evidence for the presence of a HRG-like protein in human skeletal muscle where a positive correlation between HRG content and total determined AMPD activity has been shown. In the present paper we investigate the origin of skeletal muscle HRG. The screening of a human skeletal muscle cDNA expression library using an anti-HRG antibody failed to reveal any positive clone. The RT-PCR analysis, performed on human skeletal muscle RNA as well as on RNA from the rhabdomyosarcoma (RD) cell line, failed to show any mRNA specific for the plasma HRG or for the putative muscle variant. When the RD cells were incubated with human plasma HRG, a time-dependent increase of the HRG immunoreactivity was detected both at the plasma membrane level and intracellularly. The internalisation of HRG was inhibited by the addition of heparin. The above data strongly suggest that skeletal muscle cells do not synthesize the muscle variant of HRG but instead can actively internalise it from plasma

Ambiguity, Familiarity and Learning Behavior in the Adoption of ICT for Irrigation Management

Subjective behavior of decision makers (DMs) is paramount when modeling information and communication technology (ICT) adoption choices in irrigated agriculture. Here, efficient ICT aided irrigation plans often involve a certain degree of uncertainty, and differential attitudes toward it can cause uncoordinated actions between actors. Some DMs will implement ICT information, while others will not because they do not trust ICT reliability. This risks undermining the achievement of ICT benefits in terms of water saving at the irrigation district level. By distinguishing between differ ent sources of uncertainty, taking the form of risk and ambiguity, in the present paper, we developed a new decision model to assess the impact that subjective behavior and learning processes have on the efficiency of ICT-aided irrigation plans. A case study was selected to implement the model in simplified settings. The results revealed the potential of ambiguity to limit ICT information implemen tation and to hinder water governance. Implications mainly concern the development of uncertainty management policies to favor DMs becoming familiar with the new ICT with lower ambiguit

Provision of public goods by agriculture and forestry: Economics, policy and the way ahead

The provision of public goods by agriculture and forestry has taken increasing importance in the policy debate. The objective of this editorial is to set the scene for the special issue, to provide a summary of the main messages from the papers therein, highlight the most relevant lessons learnt for policy and generate insights for future research. The results highlight that there is a need to investigate further both the micro-mechanisms of decisionmaking, value creation and coordination among actors, including the micro-level issues in policy design, and to address the topic of public goods, taking a holistic view of how agriculture and forestry systems work. In order to meet these real-world requirements, different research approaches need to be better integrated, promoting crossfertilisation and synergies among different methodological perspectives, able to complement one another in meeting policy challenges