Global warming will affect the maximum potential abundance of boreal plant species

Forecasting the impact of future global warming on biodiversity requires understanding how temperature limits the distribution of species. Here we rely on Liebig's Law of Minimum to estimate the effect of temperature on the maximum potential abundance that a species can attain at a certain location. We develop 95%‐quantile regressions to model the influence of effective temperature sum on the maximum potential abundance of 25 common understory plant species of Finland, along 868 nationwide plots sampled in 1985. Fifteen of these species showed a significant response to temperature sum that was consistent in temperature‐only models and in all‐predictors models, which also included cumulative precipitation, soil texture, soil fertility, tree species and stand maturity as predictors. For species with significant and consistent responses to temperature, we forecasted potential shifts in abundance for the period 2041–2070 under the IPCC A1B emission scenario using temperature‐only models. We predict major potential changes in abundance and average northward distribution shifts of 6–8 km yr−1. Our results emphasize inter‐specific differences in the impact of global warming on the understory layer of boreal forests. Species in all functional groups from dwarf shrubs, herbs and grasses to bryophytes and lichens showed significant responses to temperature, while temperature did not limit the abundance of 10 species. We discuss the interest of modelling the ‘maximum potential abundance’ to deal with the uncertainty in the predictions of realized abundances associated to the effect of environmental factors not accounted for and to dispersal limitations of species, among others. We believe this concept has a promising and unexplored potential to forecast the impact of specific drivers of global change under future scenarios.202

1,3-Bis(bromo­meth­yl)-2-nitro­benzene

In the title compound, C8H7Br2NO2, an inter­mediate for the synthesis of macrocycles, the NO2 group makes a dihedral angle of 65.07 (19)° with the arene ring, and the bromo­methyl substituents adopt a trans conformation about the ring such that the mol­ecule closely approximates C2 symmetry

Hygroscopic properties and cloud condensation nuclei activation of limonene-derived organosulfates and their mixtures with ammonium sulfate

Organosulfates have been observed as constituents of atmospheric aerosols in a wide range of environments; however their hygroscopic properties remain uncharacterised. Here, limonene-derived organosulfates with a molecular weight of 250 Da (L-OS 250) were synthesised and used for simultaneous measurements with a hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyser (H-TDMA) and a cloud condensation nuclei counter (CCNC) to determine the hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, for pure L-OS 250 and mixtures of L-OS 250 with ammonium sulfate (AS) over a wide range of humidity conditions. The kappa values derived from measurements with H-TDMA decreased with increasing particle dry diameter for all chemical compositions investigated, indicating that kappa H-TDMA depends on particle diameter and/or surface effects; however, it is not clear if this trend is statistically significant. For pure L-OS 250, kappa was found to increase with increasing relative humidity, indicating dilution/solubility effects to be significant. Discrepancies in kappa between the sub-and supersaturated measurements were observed for LOS 250, whereas kappa of AS and mixed L-OS 250/AS were similar. This discrepancy was primarily ascribed to limited dissolution of L-OS 250 at subsaturated conditions. In general, hygroscopic growth factor, critical particle diameter and kappa for the mixed L-OS 250/AS particles converged towards the values of pure AS for mixtures with >= 20% w/w AS. Surface tension measurements of bulk aqueous L-OS 250/AS solutions showed that L-OS 250 was indeed surface active, as expected from its molecular structure, decreasing the surface tension of solutions with 24% from the pure water value at a L-OS 250 concentration of 0.0025 mol L-1. Based on these surface tension measurements, we present the first concentration-dependent parametrisation of surface tension for aqueous L-OS 250, which was implemented to different process-level models of L-OS 250 hygroscopicity and CCN activation. The values of kappa obtained from the measurements were compared with kappa calculated applying the volume additive Zdanovskii-Stokes-Robinson mixing rule, as well as kappa modelled from equilibrium Kohler theory with different assumptions regarding L-OS 250 bulk-to-surface partitioning and aqueous droplet surface tension. This study is to our knowledge the first to investigate the hygroscopic properties and surface activity of L-OS 250; hence it is an important first step towards understanding the atmospheric impact of organosulfates.Peer reviewe

Impact of gender on event rates at 1 year in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation: contemporary perspective from the GARFIELD-AF registry.

OBJECTIVES: Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) explored the impact of gender, risk factors and anticoagulant (AC) treatment on 1-year outcomes in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). DESIGN: GARFIELD-AF is a prospective non-interventional registry. SETTING: Investigator sites (n=1048) are representative of the care settings/locations in each of the 35 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Patients ≥18yrs with newly diagnosed (≤6 weeks' duration) NVAF and ≥1 investigator-determined stroke risk factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Event rates per 100 person-years were estimated from the Poisson model and HRs and 95% CIs calculated. RESULTS: Of 28 624 patients (women 44.4%; men 55.6%) enrolled, there were more elderly (≥75 years) women (46.9%) than men (30.4%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years (95% CI) for women and men were 4.48 (4.12 to 4.87) and 4.04 (3.74 to 4.38), respectively, stroke/systemic embolism (SE) (1.62 (1.41 to 1.87) and 1.17 (1.01 to 1.36)) and major bleeding (0.93 (0.78 to 1.13) and 0.79 (0.66 to 0.95)). After adjustment for baseline risk factors in treated and untreated patients, HRs (95% CI) for women (relative to men) for stroke/SE rates were 1.3-fold higher in women (HR 1.30 (1.04 to 1.63)), and similar for major bleeding (1.13 (0.85 to 1.50)) and all-cause mortality (1.05 (0.92 to 1.19)). Antithrombotic treatment patterns in men and women were almost identical. 63.8% women and 62.9% men received AC± antiplatelets. Relative to no AC treatment, the reduction in stroke/SE rates with AC treatment was greater (p=0.01) in men (HR 0.45 (0.33 to 0.61)) than women 0.77 (0.57 to 1.03). All-cause mortality reduction with AC treatment was similar (women: 0.65 (0.54 to 0.77); men: 0.57 (0.48 to 0.68)). The risk of major bleeding when treated with AC versus no AC was 2.33 (1.41 to 3.84) in men and 1.86 (1.16 to 2.99) in women (p value=0.53). CONCLUSIONS: Women have a higher risk of stroke/SE and the reduction in stroke/SE events rates with AC treatment is less in women than in men. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01090362

Evaluation of Lay Support in Pregnant women with Social risk (ELSIPS): a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Maternal, neonatal and child health outcomes are worse in families from black and ethnic minority groups and disadvantaged backgrounds. There is little evidence on whether lay support improves maternal and infant outcomes among women with complex social needs within a disadvantaged multi-ethnic population in the United Kingdom (UK).</p> <p>Method/Design</p> <p>The aim of this study is to evaluate a lay Pregnancy Outreach Worker (POW) service for nulliparous women identified as having social risk within a maternity service that is systematically assessing social risks alongside the usual obstetric and medical risks. The study design is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) in nulliparous women assessed as having social risk comparing standard maternity care with the addition of referral to the POW support service.</p> <p>The POWs work alongside community midwifery teams and offer individualised support to women to encourage engagement with services (health and social care) from randomisation (before 28 weeks gestation) until 6 weeks after birth.</p> <p>The primary outcomes have been chosen on the basis that they are linked to maternal and infant health. The two primary outcomes are engagement with antenatal care, assessed by the number of antenatal visits; and maternal depression, assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale at 8-12 weeks after birth. Secondary outcomes include maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, routine child health assessments, including immunisation uptake and breastfeeding at 6 weeks. Other psychological outcomes (self efficacy) and mother-to-infant bonding will also be collected using validated tools.</p> <p>A sample size of 1316 will provide 90% power (at the 5% significance level) to detect increased engagement with antenatal services of 1.5 visits and a reduction of 1.5 in the average EPDS score for women with two or more social risk factors, with power in excess of this for women with any social risk factor. Analysis will be by intention to treat.</p> <p>Qualitative research will explore the POWs' daily work in context. This will complement the findings of the RCT through a triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data on the process of the intervention, and identify other contextual factors that affect the implementation of the intervention.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The trial will provide high quality evidence as to whether or not lay support (POW) offered to women identified with social risk factors improves engagement with maternity services and reduces numbers of women with depression.</p> <p>MREC number</p> <p>10/H1207/23</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN35027323">ISRCTN35027323</a></p

Identification of actinomycetes from plant rhizospheric soils with inhibitory activity against Colletotrichum spp., the causative agent of anthracnose disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Colletotrichum </it>is one of the most widespread and important genus of plant pathogenic fungi worldwide. Various species of <it>Colletotrichum </it>are the causative agents of anthracnose disease in plants, which is a severe problem to agricultural crops particularly in Thailand. These phytopathogens are usually controlled using chemicals; however, the use of these agents can lead to environmental pollution. Potential non-chemical control strategies for anthracnose disease include the use of bacteria capable of producing anti-fungal compounds such as actinomycetes spp., that comprise a large group of filamentous, Gram positive bacteria from soil. The aim of this study was to isolate actinomycetes capable of inhibiting the growth of <it>Colletotrichum </it>spp, and to analyze the diversity of actinomycetes from plant rhizospheric soil.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 304 actinomycetes were isolated and tested for their inhibitory activity against <it>Colletotrichum gloeosporioides </it>strains DoA d0762 and DoA c1060 and <it>Colletotrichum capsici </it>strain DoA c1511 which cause anthracnose disease as well as the non-pathogenic <it>Saccharomyces cerevisiae </it>strain IFO 10217. Most isolates (222 out of 304, 73.0%) were active against at least one indicator fungus or yeast. Fifty four (17.8%) were active against three anthracnose fungi and 17 (5.6%) could inhibit the growth of all three fungi and <it>S. cerevisiae </it>used in the test. Detailed analysis on 30 selected isolates from an orchard at Chanthaburi using the comparison of 16S rRNA gene sequences revealed that most of the isolates (87%) belong to the genus <it>Streptomyces </it>sp., while one each belongs to <it>Saccharopolyspora </it>(strain SB-2) and <it>Nocardiopsis </it>(strain CM-2) and two to <it>Nocardia </it>(strains BP-3 and LK-1). Strains LC-1, LC-4, JF-1, SC-1 and MG-1 exerted high inhibitory activity against all three anthracnose fungi and yeast. In addition, the organic solvent extracts prepared from these five strains inhibited conidial growth of the three indicator fungi. Preliminary analysis of crude extracts by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) indicated that the sample from strain JF-1 may contain a novel compound. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that this strain is closely related to <it>Streptomyces cavurensis </it>NRRL 2740 with 99.8% DNA homology of 16S rRNA gene (500 bp).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study suggests that rhizospheric soil is an attractive source for the discovery of a large number of actinomycetes with activity against <it>Colletotrichum </it>spp. An interesting strain (JF-1) with high inhibitory activity has the potential to produce a new compound that may be useful in the control of <it>Colletotrichum </it>spp.</p

The risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in women who are overweight or obese

Extent: 8p.Background: The prevalence of obesity amongst women bearing children in Australia is rising and has important implications for obstetric care. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and impact of mothers being overweight and obese in early to mid-pregnancy on maternal, peripartum and neonatal outcomes. Methods: A secondary analysis was performed on data collected from nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy enrolled in the Australian Collaborative Trial of Supplements with antioxidants Vitamin C and Vitamin E to pregnant women for the prevention of pre-eclampsia (ACTS). Women were categorized into three groups according to their body mass index (BMI): normal (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m2); overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m2) and; obese (BMI 30-34.9 kg/m2). Obstetric and perinatal outcomes were compared by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: Of the 1661 women included, 43% were overweight or obese. Obese women were at increased risk of pre-eclampsia (relative risk (RR) 2.99 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.88, 4.73], p < 0.0001) and gestational diabetes (RR 2.10 [95%CI 1.17, 3.79], p = 0.01) compared with women with a normal BMI. Obese and overweight women were more likely to be induced and require a caesarean section compared with women of normal BMI (induction - RR 1.33 [95%CI 1.13, 1.57], p = 0.001 and 1.78 [95%CI 1.51, 2.09], p < 0.0001, caesarean section - RR 1.42 [95%CI 1.18, 1.70], p = 0.0002 and 1.63 [95%CI 1.34, 1.99], p < 0.0001). Babies of women who were obese were more likely to be large for gestational age (LFGA) (RR 2.08 [95%CI 1.47, 2.93], p < 0.0001) and macrosomic (RR 4.54 [95%CI 2.01, 10.24], p = 0.0003) compared with those of women with a normal BMI. Conclusion: The rate of overweight and obesity is increasing amongst the Australian obstetric population. Women who are overweight and obese have an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. In particular, obese women are at increased risk of gestational diabetes, pregnancy induced hypertension and pre-eclampsia. Effective preventative strategies are urgently needed.Chaturica Athukorala, Alice R Rumbold, Kristyn J Willson and Caroline A Crowthe

Factors associated with underutilization of antenatal care services in Indonesia: results of Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey 2002/2003 and 2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antenatal care aims to prevent maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. In Indonesia, at least four antenatal visits are recommended during pregnancy. However, this service has been underutilized. This study aimed to examine factors associated with underutilization of antenatal care services in Indonesia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We used data from Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) 2002/2003 and 2007. Information of 26,591 singleton live-born infants of the mothers' most recent birth within five years preceding each survey was examined. Twenty-three potential risk factors were identified and categorized into four main groups, external environment, predisposing, enabling, and need factors. Logistic regression models were used to examine the association between all potential risk factors and underutilization of antenatal services. The Population Attributable Risk (PAR) was calculated for selected significant factors associated with the outcome.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Factors strongly associated with underutilization of antenatal care services were infants from rural areas and from outer Java-Bali region, infants from low household wealth index and with low maternal education level, and high birth rank infants with short birth interval of less than two years. Other associated factors identified included mothers reporting distance to health facilities as a major problem, mothers less exposed to mass media, and mothers reporting no obstetric complications during pregnancy. The PAR showed that 55% of the total risks for underutilization of antenatal care services were attributable to the combined low household wealth index and low maternal education level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Strategies to increase the accessibility and availability of health care services are important particularly for communities in rural areas. Financial support that enables mothers from poor households to use health services will be beneficial. Health promotion programs targeting mothers with low education are vital to increase their awareness about the importance of antenatal services.</p