Deliverable 3.1. Field trial framework for the use of knowledge concerning climate adaptation measures and their implementation

This field trial framework aims to ensure that the various field trials at the EVOKED case study sites are carried out, as much as possible, in a consistent manner such that they may be cross compared, and lessons may be drawn. We do so by describing a framework using the key aspects of EVOKED: • Climate services: the service of providing climate information in such a way that it supports decision-making, as well as benefiting society. Examples of such services are projections, trends, economic analysis • Living Lab approach: an action-oriented research approach with committed stakeholders who actively participate in a real-life test and experimentation environment (i.e. laboratory) to test hypothesis, in this case hypotheses concerning climate services as well as coming up with solutions for complex problems such as climate adaptation or risk and uncertainty assessments. • Information: the creation of information from climate data so that it becomes meaningful, useful for stakeholders and end-users in making decisions. A series of hypotheses are formulated for each of these key aspects to translate the theoretical concepts into a field trial framework. Thus the goal of the field trials is to find ways in which climate information meets the needs of the end-EU, Horizon Europe European Research Area for Climate Services JPI Climate The Research Council of Norway Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany) NWO FORMA

Deliverable 3.3. Reports on execution of field trails at each case study site

The main objective of the field trials was to bring into practice the key aspects of EVOKED: the focus on climate services, the Living Labs approach, and the information design of the selected climate services for each of the EVOKED case study sites (Deltares, 2019). To support comparing the outcomes of these case studies, Deliverable 3.2 (Deltares, 2020) was developed to create a framework to structure the data that has been collected in the case studies as well as to draw lessons and conclusions based on a case comparison. The final objective as presented in the present report is “a systematic evaluation of the climate information designs and thus of the communicative qualities of currently used climate services; insight into the different information needs, perceptions of risk and uncertainty, and the responsibilities and roles of different stakeholder groups; a set of visualization principles and visualization strategies for stakeholder specific climate services.” (Deltares, 2019, p.17).EU, Horizon Europe European Research Area for Climate Services JPI Climate The Research Council of Norway Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany) NWO FORMA

Deliverable 3.2. Capacity building material for the field trials

In Deliverable 3.1 (Deltares, 2019) the theoretical background, research questions, hypotheses (also summarized in Section 2 of this document) and overall method have been described. This deliverable focuses on the workflow in the field trials and provides capacity materials (templates) to carry out the research. The workflow and templates are meant to help to: 1. Select the climate service(s) that will be adapted for the EVOKED project; 2. Identify ‘usability-gap(s)’ between the information given by the climate service(s) and the information needs of the end-user(s); 3. Think about a new, improved information design (i.e. the way in which information is presented – for a more elaborate explanation on the concept we refer to Deliverbale 3.1 (Deltares, 2019) of the selected climate service(s) to help bridge the aforementioned ‘usability-gap’ through the way information is presented to the user of the climate service(s); 4. To test the new information design (as an experiment). Finally, this document aims to create a coherent data management structure by using the same templates for each case study location. This enables both the cross-comparison between the case studies and the overall analysis regarding EVOKED-hypotheses.EU, Horizon Europe European Research Area for Climate Services JPI Climate The Research Council of Norway Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany) NWO FORMA

Stakeholder evaluation of the co-production process of climate services. Experiences from two case studies in Larvik (Norway) and Flensburg (Germany)

publishedVersio

Prognosis for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: development and validation of a personalised prediction model

Summary Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive, fatal motor neuron disease with a variable natural history. There are no accurate models that predict the disease course and outcomes, which complicates risk assessment and counselling for individual patients, stratification of patients for trials, and timing of interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting a composite survival endpoint for individual patients with ALS. Methods We obtained data for patients from 14 specialised ALS centres (each one designated as a cohort) in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK. All patients were diagnosed in the centres after excluding other diagnoses and classified according to revised El Escorial criteria. We assessed 16 patient characteristics as potential predictors of a composite survival outcome (time between onset of symptoms and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day, tracheostomy, or death) and applied backward elimination with bootstrapping in the largest population-based dataset for predictor selection. Data were gathered on the day of diagnosis or as soon as possible thereafter. Predictors that were selected in more than 70% of the bootstrap resamples were used to develop a multivariable Royston-Parmar model for predicting the composite survival outcome in individual patients. We assessed the generalisability of the model by estimating heterogeneity of predictive accuracy across external populations (ie, populations not used to develop the model) using internal–external cross-validation, and quantified the discrimination using the concordance (c) statistic (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve) and calibration using a calibration slope. Findings Data were collected between Jan 1, 1992, and Sept 22, 2016 (the largest data-set included data from 1936 patients). The median follow-up time was 97·5 months (IQR 52·9–168·5). Eight candidate predictors entered the prediction model: bulbar versus non-bulbar onset (univariable hazard ratio [HR] 1·71, 95% CI 1·63–1·79), age at onset (1·03, 1·03–1·03), definite versus probable or possible ALS (1·47, 1·39–1·55), diagnostic delay (0·52, 0·51–0·53), forced vital capacity (HR 0·99, 0·99–0·99), progression rate (6·33, 5·92–6·76), frontotemporal dementia (1·34, 1·20–1·50), and presence of a C9orf72 repeat expansion (1·45, 1·31–1·61), all p<0·0001. The c statistic for external predictive accuracy of the model was 0·78 (95% CI 0·77–0·80; 95% prediction interval [PI] 0·74–0·82) and the calibration slope was 1·01 (95% CI 0·95–1·07; 95% PI 0·83–1·18). The model was used to define five groups with distinct median predicted (SE) and observed (SE) times in months from symptom onset to the composite survival outcome: very short 17·7 (0·20), 16·5 (0·23); short 25·3 (0·06), 25·2 (0·35); intermediate 32·2 (0·09), 32·8 (0·46); long 43·7 (0·21), 44·6 (0·74); and very long 91·0 (1·84), 85·6 (1·96). Interpretation We have developed an externally validated model to predict survival without tracheostomy and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day in European patients with ALS. This model could be applied to individualised patient management, counselling, and future trial design, but to maximise the benefit and prevent harm it is intended to be used by medical doctors only. Funding Netherlands ALS Foundation

Knowing your audience: the contingency of landscape design interpretations

To address visual communication issues in landscape planning and design processes, an analytical framework that enables the study and possible anticipation of the interpretation of visual design representations is presented here. This framework consists of a hybrid theory of Peircean social semiotics and Laclaudian post-foundational discourse analysis (PDA). The semiotics of Peirce, through the concept of the interpretant, enable the conceptualization of the discourses that make up the socio-political contexts of design projects as so-called ‘interpretive habits’. This framework is demonstrated by partly reconstructing the socio-political context of Rebuild by Design, a design competition organized in the wake of hurricane Sandy in New York. It is suggested through this demonstration that the sign systems and discursive networks that influence the interpretations of design images by different stakeholders can be partially uncovered during the design process itself. By recognizing these interpretive habits during specific phases of the design process, planners and designers could potentially better anticipate the productive and counter-productive interpretations of their design representations

Mind the Gap: Towards a Typology of Climate Service Usability Gaps

Literature on climate services presents a large diversity of different services and uses. Many climate services have &lsquo;usability gaps&rsquo;: the information provided, or the way it is visualized, may be unsuitable for end users to inform decision-making processes in relation to adaptation against climate change impacts or for the development of policies to this end. The aim of this article is to contribute to more informed and efficient decision-making processes in climate adaptation by developing a typology of usability gaps for climate services. To do so, we first present and demonstrate a so-called &lsquo;climate information design&rsquo; (CID) template with which to study and potentially improve the visual communicative qualities of climate services. Then, two climates services are selected for a further, qualitative explorative case study of two cases in the north and south of the Netherlands. A combination of focus group sessions and semi-structured interviews are used to collect data from Dutch governmental stakeholders as well as private stakeholders and NGOs. This data is then coded to discover what usability gaps are present. We then present twelve different types of usability gaps that were encountered as a typology. This typology could be used to improve and redesign climate services

Photographic comparison: a method for qualitative outdoor thermal perception surveys

This article addresses the use of photographic comparison as a complementary visual appraisal method in an outdoor thermal perception survey. This survey was carried out during a Ph.D. research exploring how materials and vegetation influence thermal comfort in outdoor public spaces. Objective and subjective thermal perception parameters were combined and quantitative and qualitative research methods were used. The quantitative methods included microclimatic measurements, whilst the qualitative methods comprised observations and spatially localised interviews based on a questionnaire and the photographic comparison. This article explores how such visual research method allowed triangulating findings of this field survey. Three non-edited photographs of outdoor public spaces, under similar summer meteorological conditions but with contrasting spatial features, were shown to respondents to the questionnaire. The photographs depicted undisclosed locations for preventing biased emotional appreciations. Respondents were asked to select the potentially most comfortable and uncomfortable environments depicted. The choice of photographs matched the previous answers on the thermal sensation and evaluation judgement scales. Hence, we discuss the way the visual interpretations by respondents allowed the triangulation of in situ thermal perception data. The extent to which thermal comfort can be interpreted from thermal environments depicted in photographs containing clear visual signs is further discussed. The article concludes on how such a visual appraisal method can be valuable for enriching future qualitative outdoor thermal perception surveys with subjective interpretation of visual data.</p

Visualization, participation and rhetoric: The discursive power of landscape design representations in participatory processes

Visual landscape design representations facilitate communication and knowledge exchange during participatory planning and design processes. The production of representations is considered to be a discursive act: actors and institutions construct knowledge with a certain authority and credibility through the use of visual expression. We aim to study the context in which the production of representations is embedded and how this context manifests itself in the communicative qualities of design representations. We present a visual discourse analysis of landscape design representations, employing empirical examples from the transdisciplinary design competition Rebuild by Design. The analysis uncovers interdependencies among three components of the visual discourse: the arrangement of participatory processes, media interactivity and the visual rhetoric embedded in the composition and style of the image. A conscious use of these discursive components could help prevent miscommunication, manage participant expectations and increase the validity of participatory design process outcomes.</p