Reported exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and relative perceived importance of different settings for SARS-CoV-2 acquisition in England and Wales: Analysis of the Virus Watch Community Cohort [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

We aimed to assess the relative importance of different settings for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a large community cohort based on perceived location of infection for self-reported confirmed SARS-COV-2 cases. We demonstrate the importance of home, work and education as perceived venues for transmission. In children, education was most important and in older adults essential shopping was of high importance. Our findings support public health messaging about infection control at home, advice on working from home and restrictions in different venues

Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals

BACKGROUND: The serial interval is a key epidemiological measure that quantifies the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector-infectee pair. It indicates how quickly new generations of cases appear, thus informing on the speed of an epidemic. Estimating the serial interval requires to identify pairs of infectors and infectees. Yet, most studies fail to assess the direction of transmission between cases and assume that the order of infections - and thus transmissions - strictly follows the order of symptom onsets, thereby imposing serial intervals to be positive. Because of the long and highly variable incubation period of SARS-CoV-2, this may not always be true (i.e an infectee may show symptoms before their infector) and negative serial intervals may occur. This study aims to estimate the serial interval of different SARS-CoV-2 variants whilst accounting for negative serial intervals. METHODS: This analysis included 5 842 symptomatic individuals with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection amongst 2 579 households from September 2020 to August 2022 across England & Wales. We used a Bayesian framework to infer who infected whom by exploring all transmission trees compatible with the observed dates of symptoms, based on a wide range of incubation period and generation time distributions compatible with estimates reported in the literature. Serial intervals were derived from the reconstructed transmission pairs, stratified by variants. RESULTS: We estimated that 22% (95% credible interval (CrI) 8-32%) of serial interval values are negative across all VOC. The mean serial interval was shortest for Omicron BA5 (2.02 days, 1.26-2.84) and longest for Alpha (3.37 days, 2.52-4.04). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the large proportion of negative serial intervals across SARS-CoV-2 variants. Because the serial interval is widely used to estimate transmissibility and forecast cases, these results may have critical implications for epidemic control

The Red Sea, Coastal Landscapes, and Hominin Dispersals

This chapter provides a critical assessment of environment, landscape and resources in the Red Sea region over the past five million years in relation to archaeological evidence of hominin settlement, and of current hypotheses about the role of the region as a pathway or obstacle to population dispersals between Africa and Asia and the possible significance of coastal colonization. The discussion assesses the impact of factors such as topography and the distribution of resources on land and on the seacoast, taking account of geographical variation and changes in geology, sea levels and palaeoclimate. The merits of northern and southern routes of movement at either end of the Red Sea are compared. All the evidence indicates that there has been no land connection at the southern end since the beginning of the Pliocene period, but that short sea crossings would have been possible at lowest sea-level stands with little or no technical aids. More important than the possibilities of crossing the southern channel is the nature of the resources available in the adjacent coastal zones. There were many climatic episodes wetter than today, and during these periods water draining from the Arabian escarpment provided productive conditions for large mammals and human populations in coastal regions and eastwards into the desert. During drier episodes the coastal region would have provided important refugia both in upland areas and on the emerged shelves exposed by lowered sea level, especially in the southern sector and on both sides of the Red Sea. Marine resources may have offered an added advantage in coastal areas, but evidence for their exploitation is very limited, and their role has been over-exaggerated in hypotheses of coastal colonization

Biologically induced mineralization of dypingite by cyanobacteria from an alkaline wetland near Atlin, British Columbia, Canada

Background: This study provides experimental evidence for biologically induced precipitation of magnesium carbonates, specifically dypingite (Mg(CO)(OH) ·5HO), by cyanobacteria from an alkaline wetland near Atlin, British Columbia. This wetland is part of a larger hydromagnesite (Mg(CO)(OH) ·4HO) playa. Abiotic and biotic processes for magnesium carbonate precipitation in this environment are compared. Results: Field observations show that evaporation of wetland water produces carbonate films of nesquehonite (MgCO ·3HO) on the water surface and crusts on exposed surfaces. In contrast, benthic microbial mats possessing filamentous cyanobacteria (Lyngbya sp.) contain platy dypingite (Mg (CO)4(OH)·5HO) and aragonite. Bulk carbonates in the benthic mats (δC avg. = 6.7%, δO avg. = 17.2%) were isotopically distinguishable from abiotically formed nesquehonite (δC avg. = 9.3%, δO avg. = 24.9%). Field and laboratory experiments, which emulated natural conditions, were conducted to provide insight into the processes for magnesium carbonate precipitation in this environment. Field microcosm experiments included an abiotic control and two microbial systems, one containing ambient wetland water and one amended with nutrients to simulate eutrophic conditions. The abiotic control developed an extensive crust of nesquehonite on its bottom surface during which [Mg] decreased by 16.7% relative to the starting concentration. In the microbial systems, precipitation occurred within the mats and was not simply due to the capturing of mineral grains settling out of the water column. Magnesium concentrations decreased by 22.2% and 38.7% in the microbial systems, respectively. Laboratory experiments using natural waters from the Atlin site produced rosettes and flakey globular aggregates of dypingite precipitated in association with filamentous cyanobacteria dominated biofilms cultured from the site, whereas the abiotic control again precipitated nesquehonite. Conclusion: Microbial mats in the Atlin wetland create ideal conditions for biologically induced precipitation of dypingite and have presumably played a significant role in the development of this natural Mg-carbonate playa. This biogeochemical process represents an important link between the biosphere and the inorganic carbon pool

Symptom profiles of community cases infected by influenza, RSV, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, and SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

Respiratory viruses that were suppressed through previous lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic have recently started to co-circulate with SARS-CoV-2. Understanding the clinical characteristics and symptomatology of different respiratory viral infections can help address the challenges related to the identification of cases and the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 variants' evolutionary patterns. Flu Watch (2006–2011) and Virus Watch (2020–2022) are household community cohort studies monitoring the epidemiology of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, seasonal coronavirus, and SARS-CoV-2, in England and Wales. This study describes and compares the proportion of symptoms reported during illnesses infected by common respiratory viruses. The SARS-CoV-2 symptom profile increasingly resembles that of other respiratory viruses as new strains emerge. Increased cough, sore throat, runny nose, and sneezing are associated with the emergence of the Omicron strains. As SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic, monitoring the evolution of its symptomatology associated with new variants will be critical for clinical surveillance

Trends, patterns and psychological influences on COVID-19 vaccination intention: Findings from a large prospective community cohort study in England and Wales (Virus Watch)

Background: Vaccination intention is key to the success of any vaccination programme, alongside vaccine availability and access. Public intention to take a COVID-19 vaccine is high in England and Wales compared to other countries, but vaccination rate disparities between ethnic, social and age groups has led to concern. Methods: Online survey of prospective household community cohort study participants across England and Wales (Virus Watch). Vaccination intention was measured by individual participant responses to ‘Would you accept a COVID-19 vaccine if offered?’, collected in December 2020 and February 2021. Responses to a 13-item questionnaire collected in January 2021 were analysed using factor analysis to investigate psychological influences on vaccination intention. // Results: Survey response rate was 56% (20,785/36,998) in December 2020 and 53% (20,590/38,727) in February 2021, with 14,880 adults reporting across both time points. In December 2020, 1,469 (10%) participants responded ‘No’ or ‘Unsure’. Of these people, 1,266 (86%) changed their mind and responded ‘Yes’ or ‘Already had a COVID-19 vaccine’ by February 2021. Vaccination intention increased across all ethnic groups and levels of social deprivation. Age was most strongly associated with vaccination intention, with 16–24-year-olds more likely to respond “Unsure” or “No” versus “Yes” than 65–74-year-olds in December 2020 (OR: 4.63, 95 %CI: 3.42, 6.27 & OR 7.17 95 %CI: 4.26, 12.07 respectively) and February 2021 (OR: 27.92 95 %CI: 13.79, 56.51 & OR 17.16 95 %CI: 4.12, 71.55). The association between ethnicity and vaccination intention weakened, but did not disappear, over time. Both vaccine- and illness-related psychological factors were shown to influence vaccination intention. // Conclusions: Four in five adults (86%) who were reluctant or intending to refuse a COVID-19 vaccine in December 2020 had changed their mind in February 2021 and planned to accept, or had already accepted, a vaccine

Predictors of 25(OH)D half-life and plasma 25(OH)D concentration in The Gambia and the UK

Summary: Predictors of 25(OH)D3 half-life were factors associated with vitamin D metabolism, but were different between people in The Gambia and the UK. Country was the strongest predictor of plasma 25(OH)D concentration, probably as a marker of UVB exposure. 25(OH)D3 half-life may be applied as a tool to investigate vitamin D expenditure.  Introduction: The aim of this study was to investigate predictors of 25(OH)D3 half-life and plasma 25(OH)D concentration.  Methods: Plasma half-life of an oral tracer dose of deuterated-25(OH)D3 was measured in healthy men aged 24–39 years, resident in The Gambia, West Africa (n = 18) and in the UK during the winter (n = 18), countries that differ in calcium intake and vitamin D status. Plasma and urinary markers of vitamin D, calcium, phosphate and bone metabolism, nutrient intakes and anthropometry were measured.  Results: Normally distributed data are presented as mean (SD) and non-normal data as geometric mean (95 % CI). Gambian compared to UK men had higher plasma concentrations of 25(OH)D (69 (13) vs. 29 (11) nmol/L; P < 0.0001); 1,25(OH)2D (181 (165, 197) vs. 120 (109, 132) pmol/L; P < 0.01); and parathyroid hormone (PTH) (50 (42, 60) vs. 33 (27, 39); P < 0.0001). There was no difference in 25(OH)D3 half-life (14.7 (3.5) days vs. 15.6 (2.5) days) between countries (P = 0.2). In multivariate analyses, 25(OH)D, 1,25(OH)2D, vitamin D binding protein and albumin-adjusted calcium (Caalb) explained 79 % of variance in 25(OH)D3 half-life in Gambians, but no significant predictors were found in UK participants. For the countries combined, Caalb, PTH and plasma phosphate explained 39 % of half-life variability. 1,25(OH)2D, weight, PTH and country explained 81 % of variability in 25(OH)D concentration; however, country alone explained 74 %.  Conclusion: Factors known to affect 25(OH)D metabolism predict 25(OH)D3 half-life, but these differed between countries. Country predicted 25(OH)D, probably as a proxy measure for UVB exposure and vitamin D supply. This study supports the use of 25(OH)D half-life to investigate vitamin D metabolism

Assessment of Virally Vectored Autoimmunity as a Biocontrol Strategy for Cane Toads

BACKGROUND: The cane toad, Bufo (Chaunus) marinus, is one of the most notorious vertebrate pests introduced into Australia over the last 200 years and, so far, efforts to identify a naturally occurring B. marinus-specific pathogen for use as a biological control agent have been unsuccessful. We explored an alternative approach that entailed genetically modifying a pathogen with broad host specificity so that it no longer caused disease, but carried a gene to disrupt the cane toad life cycle in a species specific manner. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The adult beta globin gene was selected as the model gene for proof of concept of autoimmunity as a biocontrol method for cane toads. A previous report showed injection of bullfrog tadpoles with adult beta globin resulted in an alteration in the form of beta globin expressed in metamorphs as well as reduced survival. In B. marinus we established for the first time that the switch from tadpole to adult globin exists. The effect of injecting B. marinus tadpoles with purified recombinant adult globin protein was then assessed using behavioural (swim speed in tadpoles and jump length in metamorphs), developmental (time to metamorphosis, weight and length at various developmental stages, protein profile of adult globin) and genetic (adult globin mRNA levels) measures. However, we were unable to detect any differences between treated and control animals. Further, globin delivery using Bohle iridovirus, an Australian ranavirus isolate belonging to the Iridovirus family, did not reduce the survival of metamorphs or alter the form of beta globin expressed in metamorphs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: While we were able to show for the first time that the switch from tadpole to adult globin does occur in B. marinus, we were not able to induce autoimmunity and disrupt metamorphosis. The short development time of B. marinus tadpoles may preclude this approach

Emerging Strategies for Healthy Urban Governance

Urban health promotion is not simply a matter of the right interventions, or even the necessary resources. Urban (and indeed global) health depends to an important extent on governance, the institutions and processes through which societies manage the course of events. This paper describes the concept of governance, distinguishing between reforms aimed at improving how government works and innovations that more fundamentally reinvent governance by developing new institutions and processes of local stakeholder control. The paper highlights strategies urban governors can use to maximize their influence on the national and international decisions that structure urban life. It concludes with some observations on the limitations of local governance strategies and the importance of establishing a “virtuous circuit” of governance through which urban dwellers play a greater role in the formation and implementation of policy at the national and global levels

The population approach to falls injury prevention in older people: findings of a two community trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a sound rationale for the population-based approach to falls injury prevention but there is currently insufficient evidence to advise governments and communities on how they can use population-based strategies to achieve desired reductions in the burden of falls-related injury. The aim of the study was to quantify the effectiveness of a streamlined (and thus potentially sustainable and cost-effective), population-based, multi-factorial falls injury prevention program for people over 60 years of age.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Population-based falls-prevention interventions were conducted at two geographically-defined and separate Australian sites: Wide Bay, Queensland, and Northern Rivers, NSW. Changes in the prevalence of key risk factors and changes in rates of injury outcomes within each community were compared before and after program implementation and changes in rates of injury outcomes in each community were also compared with the rates in their respective States.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The interventions in neither community substantially decreased the rate of falls-related injury among people aged 60 years or older, although there was some evidence of reductions in occurrence of multiple falls reported by women. In addition, there was some indication of improvements in fall-related risk factors, but the magnitudes were generally modest.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The evidence suggests that low intensity population-based falls prevention programs may not be as effective as those that are intensively implemented.</p