Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding

When choosing an appropriate hydrodynamic model, there is always a compromise between accuracy and computational cost, with high-fidelity models being more expensive than low-fidelity ones. However, when assessing uncertainty, we can use a multifidelity approach to take advantage of the accuracy of high-fidelity models and the computational efficiency of low-fidelity models. Here, we apply the multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo method (MLMF) to quantify uncertainty by computing statistical estimators of key output variables with respect to uncertain input data, using the high-fidelity hydrodynamic model XBeach and the lower-fidelity coastal flooding model SFINCS (Super-Fast INundation of CoastS). The multilevel aspect opens up the further advantageous possibility of applying each of these models at multiple resolutions. This work represents the first application of MLMF in the coastal zone and one of its first applications in any field. For both idealised and real-world test cases, MLMF can significantly reduce computational cost for the same accuracy compared to both the standard Monte Carlo method and to a multilevel approach utilising only a single model (the multilevel Monte Carlo method). In particular, here we demonstrate using the case of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, USA, that this improvement in computational efficiency allows for in-depth uncertainty analysis to be conducted in the case of real-world coastal environments – a task that would previously have been practically unfeasible. Moreover, for the first time, we show how an inverse transform sampling technique can be used to accurately estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of variables from the MLMF outputs. MLMF-based estimates of the expectations and the CDFs of the variables of interest are of significant value to decision makers when assessing uncertainty in predictions

A data support infrastructure for Clean Development Mechanism forestry implementation: an inventory perspective from Cameroon

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forestry project development requires highly multi-disciplinary and multiple-source information that can be complex, cumbersome and costly to acquire. Yet developing countries in which CDM projects are created and implemented are often data poor environments and unable to meet such complex information requirements. Using Cameroon as an example, the present paper explores the structure of an enabling host country data support infrastructure for CDM forestry implementation, and also assesses the supply potential of current forestry information. Results include a conceptual data model of CDM project data needs; the list of meso- and macro-level data and information requirements (Demand analysis); and an inventory of relevant data available in Cameroon (Supply analysis). From a comparison of demand and supply, we confirm that data availability and the relevant infrastructure for data or information generation is inadequate for supporting carbon forestry at the micro, meso and macro-levels in Cameroon. The results suggest that current CDM afforestation and reforestation information demands are almost impenetrable for local communities in host countries and pose a number of cross-scale barriers to project adoption. More importantly, we identify proactive regulatory, institutional and capacity building policy strategies for forest data management improvements that could enhance biosphere carbon management uptake in poor countries. CDM forestry information research needs are also highlighted

Hele-Shaw beach creation by breaking waves: a mathematics-inspired experiment

Fundamentals of nonlinear wave-particle interactions are studied experimentally in a Hele-Shaw configuration with wave breaking and a dynamic bed. To design this configuration, we determine, mathematically, the gap width which allows inertial flows to survive the viscous damping due to the side walls. Damped wave sloshing experiments compared with simulations confirm that width-averaged potential-flow models with linear momentum damping are adequately capturing the large scale nonlinear wave motion. Subsequently, we show that the four types of wave breaking observed at real-world beaches also emerge on Hele-Shaw laboratory beaches, albeit in idealized forms. Finally, an experimental parameter study is undertaken to quantify the formation of quasi-steady beach morphologies due to nonlinear, breaking waves: berm or dune, beach and bar formation are all classified. Our research reveals that the Hele-Shaw beach configuration allows a wealth of experimental and modelling extensions, including benchmarking of forecast models used in the coastal engineering practice, especially for shingle beaches

Disturbance and Recovery of Salt Marsh Arthropod Communities following BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

Oil spills represent a major environmental threat to coastal wetlands, which provide a variety of critical ecosystem services to humanity. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico is a hub of oil and gas exploration activities that historically have impacted intertidal habitats such as salt marsh. Following the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, we sampled the terrestrial arthropod community and marine invertebrates found in stands of Spartina alterniflora, the most abundant plant in coastal salt marshes. Sampling occurred in 2010 as oil was washing ashore and a year later in 2011. In 2010, intertidal crabs and terrestrial arthropods (insects and spiders) were suppressed by oil exposure even in seemingly unaffected stands of plants; however, Littoraria snails were unaffected. One year later, crab and arthropods had largely recovered. Our work is the first attempt that we know of assessing vulnerability of the salt marsh arthropod community to oil exposure, and it suggests that arthropods are both quite vulnerable to oil exposure and quite resilient, able to recover from exposure within a year if host plants remain healthy

Conditioning Individual Mosquitoes to an Odor: Sex, Source, and Time

Olfactory conditioning of mosquitoes may have important implications for vector-pathogen-host dynamics. If mosquitoes learn about specific host attributes associated with pathogen infection, it may help to explain the heterogeneity of biting and disease patterns observed in the field. Sugar-feeding is a requirement for survival in both male and female mosquitoes. It provides a starting point for learning research in mosquitoes that avoids the confounding factors associated with the observer being a potential blood-host and has the capability to address certain areas of close-range mosquito learning behavior that have not previously been described. This study was designed to investigate the ability of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus Say to associate odor with a sugar-meal with emphasis on important experimental considerations of mosquito age (1.2 d old and 3–5 d old), sex (male and female), source (laboratory and wild), and the time between conditioning and testing (<5 min, 1 hr, 2.5 hr, 5 hr, 10 hr, and 24 hr). Mosquitoes were individually conditioned to an odor across these different experimental conditions. Details of the conditioning protocol are presented as well as the use of binary logistic regression to analyze the complex dataset generated from this experimental design. The results suggest that each of the experimental factors may be important in different ways. Both the source of the mosquitoes and sex of the mosquitoes had significant effects on conditioned responses. The largest effect on conditioning was observed in the lack of positive response following conditioning for females aged 3–5 d derived from a long established colony. Overall, this study provides a method for conditioning experiments involving individual mosquitoes at close range and provides for future discussion of the relevance and broader questions that can be asked of olfactory conditioning in mosquitoes

Monitoring of post-match fatigue in professional soccer: Welcome to the real world

Participation in soccer match-play leads to acute and transient subjective, biochemical, metabolic and physical disturbances in players over subsequent hours and days. Inadequate time for rest and regeneration between matches can expose players to the risk of training and competing whilst not entirely recovered. In professional soccer, contemporary competitive schedules can require teams to compete in-excess of 60 matches over the course of the season while periods of fixture congestion occur prompting much attention from researchers and practitioners to the monitoring of fatigue and readiness to play. A comprehensive body of research has investigated post-match acute and residual fatigue responses. Yet the relevance of the research for professional soccer contexts is debatable notably in relation to the study populations and designs employed. Monitoring can indeed be invasive, expensive, time-inefficient and difficult to perform routinely and simultaneously in a large squad of regularly competing players. Uncertainty also exists regarding the meaningfulness and interpretation of changes in fatigue response values and their functional relevance, and practical applicability in the field. The real-world need and cost-benefit of monitoring must be carefully weighed up. In relation to professional soccer contexts, this opinion paper intends to: 1) debate the need for PMF monitoring, 2) critique the real-world relevance of the current research literature, 3) discuss the practical burden relating to measurement tools and protocols and the collection, interpretation and application of data in the field, and, 4) propose future research perspectives

High-resolution, large-scale laboratory measurements of a sandy beach and dynamic cobble berm revetment

AbstractHigh quality laboratory measurements of nearshore waves and morphology change at, or near prototype-scale are essential to support new understanding of coastal processes and enable the development and validation of predictive models. The DynaRev experiment was completed at the GWK large wave flume over 8 weeks during 2017 to investigate the response of a sandy beach to water level rise and varying wave conditions with and without a dynamic cobble berm revetment, as well as the resilience of the revetment itself. A large array of instrumentation was used throughout the experiment to capture: (1) wave transformation from intermediate water depths to the runup limit at high spatio-temporal resolution, (2) beach profile change including wave-by-wave changes in the swash zone, (3) detailed hydro and morphodynamic measurements around a developing and a translating sandbar.</jats:p