Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study the following model for population abundances in $n$ patches: the conditional law of $X_{t+dt}$ given $X_t=x$ is such that when $dt$ is small the conditional mean of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ is approximately $[x^i\mu_i+\sum_j(x^j D_{ji}-x^i D_{ij})]dt$, where $X_t^i$ and $\mu_i$ are the abundance and per capita growth rate in the $i$-th patch respectivly, and $D_{ij}$ is the dispersal rate from the $i$-th to the $j$-th patch, and the conditional covariance of $X_{t+dt}^i-X_t^i$ and $X_{t+dt}^j-X_t^j$ is approximately $x^i x^j \sigma_{ij}dt$. We show for such a spatially extended population that if $S_t=(X_t^1+...+X_t^n)$ is the total population abundance, then $Y_t=X_t/S_t$, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector $Y_\infty$ as $t\to\infty$, and the stochastic growth rate $\lim_{t\to\infty}t^{-1}\log S_t$ equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate \sum_i\mu_i\E[Y_\infty^i] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation \E[\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}Y_\infty^i Y_\infty^j] experienced by the population. We derive analytic results for the law of $Y_\infty$, find which choice of the dispersal mechanism $D$ produces an optimal stochastic growth rate for a freely dispersing population, and investigate the effect on the stochastic growth rate of constraints on dispersal rates. Our results provide fundamental insights into "ideal free" movement in the face of uncertainty, the persistence of coupled sink populations, the evolution of dispersal rates, and the single large or several small (SLOSS) debate in conservation biology.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figure

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Pasteurella multocida Heddleston serovar 3 and 4 strains share a common lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis locus but display both inter- and intrastrain lipopolysaccharide heterogeneity

Pasteurella multocida is a Gram-negative multispecies pathogen and the causative agent of fowl cholera, a serious disease of poultry which can present in both acute and chronic forms. The major outer membrane component lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is both an important virulence factor and a major immunogen. Our previous studies determined the LPS structures expressed by different P. multocida strains and revealed that a number of strains belonging to different serovars contain the same LPS biosynthesis locus but express different LPS structures due to mutations within glycosyltransferase genes. In this study, we report the full LPS structure of the serovar 4 type strain, P1662, and reveal that it shares the same LPS outer core biosynthesis locus, L3, with the serovar 3 strains P1059 and Pm70. Using directed mutagenesis, the role of each glycosyltransferase gene in LPS outer core assembly was determined. LPS structural analysis of 23 Australian field isolates that contain the L3 locus revealed that at least six different LPS outer core structures can be produced as a result of mutations within the LPS glycosyltransferase genes. Moreover, some field isolates produce multiple but related LPS glycoforms simultaneously, and three LPS outer core structures are remarkably similar to the globo series of vertebrate glycosphingolipids. Our in-depth analysis showing the genetics and full range of P. multocida lipopolysaccharide structures will facilitate the improvement of typing systems and the prediction of the protective efficacy of vaccines

Dietary elimination of children with food protein induced gastrointestinal allergy – micronutrient adequacy with and without a hypoallergenic formula?

Background: The cornerstone for management of Food protein-induced gastrointestinal allergy (FPGIA) is dietary exclusion; however the micronutrient intake of this population has been poorly studied. We set out to determine the dietary intake of children on an elimination diet for this food allergy and hypothesised that the type of elimination diet and the presence of a hypoallergenic formula (HF) significantly impacts on micronutrient intake. Method: A prospective observational study was conducted on children diagnosed with FPIGA on an exclusion diet who completed a 3 day semi-quantitative food diary 4 weeks after commencing the diet. Nutritional intake where HF was used was compared to those without HF, with or without a vitamin and mineral supplement (VMS). Results: One-hundred-and-five food diaries were included in the data analysis: 70 boys (66.7%) with median age of 21.8 months [IQR: 10 - 67.7]. Fifty-three children (50.5%) consumed a HF and the volume of consumption was correlated to micronutrient intake. Significantly (p <0.05) more children reached their micronutrient requirements if a HF was consumed. In those without a HF, some continued not to achieve requirements in particular for vitamin D and zinc, in spite of VMS. Conclusion: This study points towards the important micronutrient contribution of a HF in children with FPIGA. Children, who are not on a HF and without a VMS, are at increased risk of low intakes in particular vitamin D and zinc. Further studies need to be performed, to assess whether dietary intake translates into actual biological deficiencies

Interactions in vivo between the Vif protein of HIV-1 and the precursor (Pr55GAG) of the virion nucleocapsid proteins

The abnormality of viral core structure seen in vif-defective HIV-1 grown in PBMCs has suggested a role for Vif in viral morphogenesis. Using an in vivo mammalian two-hybrid assay, the interaction between Vif and the precursor (Pr55GAG) of the virion nucleocapsid proteins has been analysed. This revealed the amino-terminal (aa 1–22) and central (aa 70–100) regions of Vif to be essential for its interaction with Pr55GAG, but deletion of the carboxy-terminal (aa 158–192) region of the protein had only a minor effect on its interaction. Initial deletion studies carried out on Pr55GAG showed that a 35-amino-acid region of the protein bridging the MA(p17)–CA(p24) junction was essential for its ability to interact with Vif. Site-directed mutagenesis of a conserved tryptophan (Trp21) near the amino terminus of Vif showed it to be important for the interaction with Pr55GAG. By contrast, mutagenesis of the highly conserved YLAL residues forming part of the BC-box motif, shown to be important in Vif promoting degradation of APOBEC3G/3F, had little or no effect on the Vif–Pr55GAG interaction

Prioritisation by FIT to mitigate the impact of delays in the 2-week wait colorectal cancer referral pathway during the COVID-19 pandemic: a UK modelling study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) prioritisation to mitigate the impact of delays in the colorectal cancer (CRC) urgent diagnostic (2-week-wait (2WW)) pathway consequent from the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: We modelled the reduction in CRC survival and life years lost resultant from per-patient delays of 2-6 months in the 2WW pathway. We stratified by age group, individual-level benefit in CRC survival versus age-specific nosocomial COVID-19-related fatality per referred patient undergoing colonoscopy. We modelled mitigation strategies using thresholds of FIT triage of 2, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g to prioritise 2WW referrals for colonoscopy. To construct the underlying models, we employed 10-year net CRC survival for England 2008-2017, 2WW pathway CRC case and referral volumes and per-day-delay HRs generated from observational studies of diagnosis-to-treatment interval. RESULTS: Delay of 2/4/6 months across all 11 266 patients with CRC diagnosed per typical year via the 2WW pathway were estimated to result in 653/1419/2250 attributable deaths and loss of 9214/20 315/32 799 life years. Risk-benefit from urgent investigatory referral is particularly sensitive to nosocomial COVID-19 rates for patients aged >60. Prioritisation out of delay for the 18% of symptomatic referrals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g would avoid 89% of these deaths attributable to presentational/diagnostic delay while reducing immediate requirement for colonoscopy by >80%. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in the pathway to CRC diagnosis and treatment have potential to cause significant mortality and loss of life years. FIT triage of symptomatic patients in primary care could streamline access to colonoscopy, reduce delays for true-positive CRC cases and reduce nosocomial COVID-19 mortality in older true-negative 2WW referrals. However, this strategy offers benefit only in short-term rationalisation of limited endoscopy services: the appreciable false-negative rate of FIT in symptomatic patients means most colonoscopies will still be required

Prioritisation by FIT to mitigate the impact of delays in the 2-week wait colorectal cancer referral pathway during the COVID-19 pandemic: a UK modelling study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) prioritisation to mitigate the impact of delays in the colorectal cancer (CRC) urgent diagnostic (2-week-wait (2WW)) pathway consequent from the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: We modelled the reduction in CRC survival and life years lost resultant from per-patient delays of 2-6 months in the 2WW pathway. We stratified by age group, individual-level benefit in CRC survival versus age-specific nosocomial COVID-19-related fatality per referred patient undergoing colonoscopy. We modelled mitigation strategies using thresholds of FIT triage of 2, 10 and 150 µg Hb/g to prioritise 2WW referrals for colonoscopy. To construct the underlying models, we employed 10-year net CRC survival for England 2008-2017, 2WW pathway CRC case and referral volumes and per-day-delay HRs generated from observational studies of diagnosis-to-treatment interval. RESULTS: Delay of 2/4/6 months across all 11 266 patients with CRC diagnosed per typical year via the 2WW pathway were estimated to result in 653/1419/2250 attributable deaths and loss of 9214/20 315/32 799 life years. Risk-benefit from urgent investigatory referral is particularly sensitive to nosocomial COVID-19 rates for patients aged >60. Prioritisation out of delay for the 18% of symptomatic referrals with FIT >10 µg Hb/g would avoid 89% of these deaths attributable to presentational/diagnostic delay while reducing immediate requirement for colonoscopy by >80%. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in the pathway to CRC diagnosis and treatment have potential to cause significant mortality and loss of life years. FIT triage of symptomatic patients in primary care could streamline access to colonoscopy, reduce delays for true-positive CRC cases and reduce nosocomial COVID-19 mortality in older true-negative 2WW referrals. However, this strategy offers benefit only in short-term rationalisation of limited endoscopy services: the appreciable false-negative rate of FIT in symptomatic patients means most colonoscopies will still be required

Comparison of glottic views and intubation times in the supine and 25 degree back-up positions

Background: We explored whether positioning patients in a 25° back-up sniffing position improved glottic views and ease of intubation. Methods: In the first part of the study, patients were intubated in the standard supine sniffing position. In the second part, the back of the operating table was raised 25° from the horizontal by flexion of the torso at the hips while maintaining the sniffing position. The best view obtained during laryngoscopy was assessed using the Cormack and Lehane classification and Percentage of Glottic Opening (POGO) score. The number of attempts at both laryngoscopy and tracheal intubation, together with the use of ancillary equipment and manoeuvres were recorded. The ease of intubation was indirectly assessed by recording the time interval between beginning of laryngoscopy and insertion of the tracheal tube. Results: Seven hundred eighty one unselected surgical patients scheduled for non-emergency surgery were included. In the back-up position, ancillary laryngeal manoeuvres, which included cricoid pressure, backwards upwards rightward pressure and external laryngeal manipulation, were required less frequently (19.6 % versus 24. 6 %, p = 0.004). The time from beginning of laryngoscopy to insertion of the tracheal tube was 14 % shorter (median time 24 versus 28 s, p = 0.031) in the back-up position. There was no significant difference in glottic views. Conclusions: The 25° back-up position improved the ease of intubation as judged by the need for fewer ancillary manoeuvres and shorter time for intubation. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02934347 registered retrospectively on 14th Oct 2016

Exploring or Avoiding Novel Food Resources? The Novelty Conflict in an Invasive Bird

For an animal invading a novel region, the ability to develop new behaviors should facilitate the use of novel food resources and hence increase its survival in the new environment. However, the need to explore new resources may entail costs such as exposing the animal to unfamiliar predators. These two opposing forces result in an exploration-avoidance conflict, which can be expected to interfere with the acquisition of new resources. However, its consequences should be less dramatic in highly urbanized environments where new food opportunities are common and predation risk is low. We tested this hypothesis experimentally by presenting three foraging tasks to introduced common mynas (Acridotheres tristis) from environments with low and high urbanization levels from Australia. Individuals from the highly urbanized environments, where mynas are both more opportunistic when foraging and less fearful to predators, resolved a technical task faster than those from less urbanized environments. These differences did not reflect innovative ‘personalities’ and were not confounded by sex, morphology or motivational state. Rather, the principal factors underlying differences in mynas' problem-solving ability were neophobic-neophilic responses, which varied across habitats. Thus, mynas seem to modulate their problem-solving ability according to the benefits and costs of innovating in their particular habitat, which may help us understand the great success of the species in highly urbanized environments

Neurochemical Changes in the Mouse Hippocampus Underlying the Antidepressant Effect of Genetic Deletion of P2X7 Receptors.

Recent investigations have revealed that the genetic deletion of P2X7 receptors (P2rx7) results in an antidepressant phenotype in mice. However, the link between the deficiency of P2rx7 and changes in behavior has not yet been explored. In the present study, we studied the effect of genetic deletion of P2rx7 on neurochemical changes in the hippocampus that might underlie the antidepressant phenotype. P2X7 receptor deficient mice (P2rx7-/-) displayed decreased immobility in the tail suspension test (TST) and an attenuated anhedonia response in the sucrose preference test (SPT) following bacterial endotoxin (LPS) challenge. The attenuated anhedonia was reproduced through systemic treatments with P2rx7 antagonists. The activation of P2rx7 resulted in the concentration-dependent release of [3H]glutamate in P2rx7+/+ but not P2rx7-/- mice, and the NR2B subunit mRNA and protein was upregulated in the hippocampus of P2rx7-/- mice. The brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) expression was higher in saline but not LPS-treated P2rx7-/- mice; the P2rx7 antagonist Brilliant blue G elevated and the P2rx7 agonist benzoylbenzoyl ATP (BzATP) reduced BDNF level. This effect was dependent on the activation of NMDA and non-NMDA receptors but not on Group I metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluR1,5). An increased 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU) incorporation was also observed in the dentate gyrus derived from P2rx7-/- mice. Basal level of 5-HT was increased, whereas the 5HIAA/5-HT ratio was lower in the hippocampus of P2rx7-/- mice, which accompanied the increased uptake of [3H]5-HT and an elevated number of [3H]citalopram binding sites. The LPS-induced elevation of 5-HT level was absent in P2rx7-/- mice. In conclusion there are several potential mechanisms for the antidepressant phenotype of P2rx7-/- mice, such as the absence of P2rx7-mediated glutamate release, elevated basal BDNF production, enhanced neurogenesis and increased 5-HT bioavailability in the hippocampus