Gaussian process nowcasting: application to COVID-19 mortality reporting

Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19 mortality: given a stream of reported counts of daily deaths, can we correct for the delays in reporting to paint an accurate picture of the present, with uncertainty? Without this correction, raw data will often mislead by suggesting an improving situation. We present a flexible approach using a latent Gaussian process that is capable of describing the changing auto-correlation structure present in the reporting time-delay surface. This approach also yields robust estimates of uncertainty for the estimated nowcasted numbers of deaths. We test assumptions in model specification such as the choice of kernel or hyper priors, and evaluate model performance on a challenging real dataset from Brazil. Our experiments show that Gaussian process nowcasting performs favourably against both comparable methods, and against a small sample of expert human predictions. Our approach has substantial practical utility in disease modelling -- by applying our approach to COVID-19 mortality data from Brazil, where reporting delays are large, we can make informative predictions on important epidemiological quantities such as the current effective reproduction number

Effect of temperature anisotropy on various modes and instabilities for a magnetized non-relativistic bi-Maxwellian plasma

Using kinetic theory for homogeneous collisionless magnetized plasmas, we present an extended review of the plasma waves and instabilities and discuss the anisotropic response of generalized relativistic dielectric tensor and Onsager symmetry properties for arbitrary distribution functions. In general, we observe that for such plasmas only those electromagnetic modes whose magnetic field perturbations are perpendicular to the ambient magneticeld, i.e.,B1 \perp B0, are effected by the anisotropy. However, in oblique propagation all modes do show such anisotropic effects. Considering the non-relativistic bi-Maxwellian distribution and studying the relevant components of the general dielectric tensor under appropriate conditions, we derive the dispersion relations for various modes and instabilities. We show that only the electromagnetic R- and L- waves, those derived from them and the O-mode are affected by thermal anisotropies, since they satisfy the required condition B1\perpB0. By contrast, the perpendicularly propagating X-mode and the modes derived from it (the pure transverse X-mode and Bernstein mode) show no such effect. In general, we note that the thermal anisotropy modifies the parallel propagating modes via the parallel acoustic effect, while it modifies the perpendicular propagating modes via the Larmor-radius effect. In oblique propagation for kinetic Alfven waves, the thermal anisotropy affects the kinetic regime more than it affects the inertial regime. The generalized fast mode exhibits two distinct acoustic effects, one in the direction parallel to the ambient magnetic field and the other in the direction perpendicular to it. In the fast-mode instability, the magneto-sonic wave causes suppression of the firehose instability. We discuss all these propagation characteristics and present graphic illustrations

Agent based modelling helps in understanding the rules by which fibroblasts support keratinocyte colony formation

Background: Autologous keratincoytes are routinely expanded using irradiated mouse fibroblasts and bovine serum for clinical use. With growing concerns about the safety of these xenobiotic materials, it is desirable to culture keratinocytes in media without animal derived products. An improved understanding of epithelial/mesenchymal interactions could assist in this. Methodology/Principal Findings: A keratincyte/fibroblast o-culture model was developed by extending an agent-based keratinocyte colony formation model to include the response of keratinocytes to both fibroblasts and serum. The model was validated by comparison of the in virtuo and in vitro multicellular behaviour of keratinocytes and fibroblasts in single and co-culture in Greens medium. To test the robustness of the model, several properties of the fibroblasts were changed to investigate their influence on the multicellular morphogenesis of keratinocyes and fibroblasts. The model was then used to generate hypotheses to explore the interactions of both proliferative and growth arrested fibroblasts with keratinocytes. The key predictions arising from the model which were confirmed by in vitro experiments were that 1) the ratio of fibroblasts to keratinocytes would critically influence keratinocyte colony expansion, 2) this ratio needed to be optimum at the beginning of the co-culture, 3) proliferative fibroblasts would be more effective than irradiated cells in expanding keratinocytes and 4) in the presence of an adequate number of fibroblasts, keratinocyte expansion would be independent of serum. Conclusions: A closely associated computational and biological approach is a powerful tool for understanding complex biological systems such as the interactions between keratinocytes and fibroblasts. The key outcome of this study is the finding that the early addition of a critical ratio of proliferative fibroblasts can give rapid keratinocyte expansion without the use of irradiated mouse fibroblasts and bovine serum

Understanding the impact of droughts in the Yarmouk Basin, Jordan: monitoring droughts through meteorological and hydrological drought indices

This article assesses drought status in the Yarmouk Basin (YB), in northern Jordan, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Water-Level Index (SWI), and the Percent Departure from Normal rainfall (PDNimd) during the years 1993–2014. The results showed that the YB suffers from frequent and irregular periods of drought as variations in drought intensity and frequency have been observed. The SPI results revealed that the highest drought magnitude of − 2.34 appeared at Nuaimeh rainfall station in 1991. This station has also experienced severe drought particularly in years 1995, 1999, 2005, and 2012 with SPI values ranging from − 1.51 to − 1.59. Some other rainfall stations such as Baqura, Ibbin, Khanasiri, Kharja, Mafraq police, Ramtha, Turra, and Umm Qais have also suffered several periods of drought mostly in 1993. The SWI results show the highest extreme drought events in 2001 in Souf well while other extreme drought periods were observed at Wadi Elyabis well in 1994 and at Mafraq well in 1995. As compared to SPI maps, our SWI maps reflect severe and extreme drought events in most years, negatively impacting the groundwater levels in the study area

Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. NOTE: The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity

Child mortality from solid-fuel use in India: a nationally-representative case-control study

Abstract Background Most households in low and middle income countries, including in India, use solid fuels (coal/coke/lignite, firewood, dung, and crop residue) for cooking and heating. Such fuels increase child mortality, chiefly from acute respiratory infection. There are, however, few direct estimates of the impact of solid fuel on child mortality in India. Methods We compared household solid fuel use in 1998 between 6790 child deaths, from all causes, in the previous year and 609 601 living children living in 1.1 million nationally-representative homes in India. Analyses were stratified by child's gender, age (neonatal, post-neonatal, 1-4 years) and colder versus warmer states. We also examined the association of solid fuel to non-fatal pneumonias. Results Solid fuel use was very common (87% in households with child deaths and 77% in households with living children). After adjustment for demographic factors and living conditions, solid-fuel use significantly increase child deaths at ages 1-4 (prevalence ratio (PR) boys: 1.30, 95%CI 1.08-1.56; girls: 1.33, 95%CI 1.12-1.58). More girls than boys died from exposure to solid fuels. Solid fuel use was also associated with non-fatal pneumonia (boys: PR 1.54 95%CI 1.01-2.35; girls: PR 1.94 95%CI 1.13-3.33). Conclusions Child mortality risks, from all causes, due to solid fuel exposure were lower than previously, but as exposure was common solid, fuel caused 6% of all deaths at ages 0-4, 20% of deaths at ages 1-4 or 128 000 child deaths in India in 2004. Solid fuel use has declined only modestly in the last decade. Aside from reducing exposure, complementary strategies such as immunization and treatment could also reduce child mortality from acute respiratory infections

Search for sterile neutrino mixing in the MINOS long-baseline experiment

A search for depletion of the combined flux of active neutrino species over a 735 km baseline is reported using neutral-current interaction data recorded by the MINOS detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. Such a depletion is not expected according to conventional interpretations of neutrino oscillation data involving the three known neutrino flavors. A depletion would be a signature of oscillations or decay to postulated noninteracting sterile neutrinos, scenarios not ruled out by existing data. From an exposure of 3.18×1020 protons on target in which neutrinos of energies between ~500¿¿MeV and 120 GeV are produced predominantly as ¿µ, the visible energy spectrum of candidate neutral-current reactions in the MINOS far detector is reconstructed. Comparison of this spectrum to that inferred from a similarly selected near-detector sample shows that of the portion of the ¿µ flux observed to disappear in charged-current interaction data, the fraction that could be converting to a sterile state is less than 52% at 90% confidence level (C.L.). The hypothesis that active neutrinos mix with a single sterile neutrino via oscillations is tested by fitting the data to various models. In the particular four-neutrino models considered, the mixing angles ¿24 and ¿34 are constrained to be less than 11° and 56° at 90% C.L., respectively. The possibility that active neutrinos may decay to sterile neutrinos is also investigated. Pure neutrino decay without oscillations is ruled out at 5.4 standard deviations. For the scenario in which active neutrinos decay into sterile states concurrently with neutrino oscillations, a lower limit is established for the neutrino decay lifetime t3/m3>2.1×10-12¿¿s/eV at 90% C.L

Positive and Negative Regulation of Prostate Stem Cell Antigen Expression by Yin Yang 1 in Prostate Epithelial Cell Lines

Prostate cancer is influenced by epigenetic modification of genes involved in cancer development and progression. Increased expression of Prostate Stem Cell Antigen (PSCA) is correlated with development of malignant human prostate cancer, while studies in mouse models suggest that decreased PSCA levels promote prostate cancer metastasis. These studies suggest that PSCA has context-dependent functions, and could be differentially regulated during tumor progression. In the present study, we identified the multi-functional transcription factor Yin Yang 1 (YY1) as a modulator of PSCA expression in prostate epithelial cell lines. Increased YY1 levels are observed in prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) and advanced disease. We show that androgen-mediated up-regulation of PSCA in prostate epithelial cell lines is dependent on YY1. We identified two direct YY1 binding sites within the PSCA promoter, and showed that the upstream site inhibited, while the downstream site, proximal to the androgen-responsive element, stimulated PSCA promoter activity. Thus, changes in PSCA expression levels in prostate cancer may at least partly be affected by cellular levels of YY1. Our results also suggest multiple roles for YY1 in prostate cancer which may contribute to disease progression by modulation of genes such as PSCA

Socioeconomic position across the lifecourse & allostatic load: data from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 cohort study

Background: We examined how socioeconomic position (SEP) across the lifecourse (three critical periods, social mobility and accumulated over time) is associated with allostatic load (a measure of cumulative physiological burden). Methods. Data are from the West of Scotland Twenty-07 Study, with respondents aged 35 (n = 740), 55 (n = 817) and 75 (n = 483). SEP measures representing childhood, the transition to adulthood and adulthood SEP were used. Allostatic load was produced by summing nine binary biomarker scores (1 = in the highest-risk quartile). Linear regressions were used for each of the lifecourse models; with model fits compared using partial F-tests. Results: For those aged 35 and 55, higher SEP was associated with lower allostatic load (no association in the 75-year-olds). The accumulation model (more time spent with higher SEP) had the best model fit in those aged 35 (b = -0.50, 95%CI = -0.68, -0.32, P = 0.002) and 55 (b = -0.31, 95%CI = -0.49, -0.12, P < 0.001). However, the relative contributions of each life-stage differed, with adulthood SEP less strongly associated with allostatic load. Conclusions: Long-term, accumulated higher SEP has been shown to be associated with lower allostatic load (less physiological burden). However, the transition to adulthood may represent a particularly sensitive period for SEP to impact on allostatic load. © 2014 Robertson et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd