26 research outputs found
The reliability of the physical examination to guide fluid therapy in adults with severe falciparum malaria: an observational study
Association of angiopoietin-2, C-reactive protein and markers of obesity and insulin resistance with survival outcome in colorectal cancer
Model selection in historical research using approximate Bayesian computation
Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to reevaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester's laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence.Funding for this work was provided by the
SimulPast Consolider Ingenio project (CSD2010-00034) of the former Ministry for Science and Innovation of the Spanish Government and the European Research Council Advanced Grant EPNet (340828).Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version
Vampires in the village Ćœrnovo on the island of KorÄula: following an archival document from the 18th century
SrediĆĄnja tema rada usmjerena je na raĆĄÄlambu spisa pohranjenog u DrĆŸavnom arhivu u Mlecima (fond: Capi del Consiglio deâ Dieci: Lettere di Rettori e di altre cariche) koji se odnosi na dogaÄaj iz 1748. godine u korÄulanskom selu Ćœrnovo, kada su mjeĆĄtani â vjerujuÄi da su se pojavili vampiri â oskvrnuli nekoliko mjesnih grobova. U radu se podrobno iznose osnovni podaci iz spisa te reÄeni dogaÄaj analizira u ĆĄirem druĆĄtvenom kontekstu i prate se lokalna vjerovanja.The main interest of this essay is the analysis of the document from the State Archive in Venice (file: Capi del Consiglio deâ Dieci: Lettere di Rettori e di altre cariche) which is connected with the episode from 1748 when the inhabitants of the village Ćœrnove on the island of KorÄula in Croatia opened tombs on the local cemetery in the fear of the vampires treating.
This essay try to show some social circumstances connected with this event as well as a local vernacular tradition concerning superstitions