Evaluating social policy scenarios for Tourism Development of Baru Island (Colombia) using structural qualitative modeling

Social policies are commonly defined from scattered knowledge. It is hard to find examples of social policy design based on a systemic perspective, and even harder with formal modeling support. To advance in filling this gap, we studied the case of the tourism development on Baru Island. In this place, tourism is a critical economic activity based on local ecosystem services, but it is being developed without planning and outside of a sustainability focus. We build a qualitative model of the social structure of tourism development that is taking place in the locality. Model building was based on experiences and opinions of local stakeholders, gathered through participatory procedures. Using our model, we projected the future states of the system, assuming several hypothetical public policy scenarios. More specifically, we evaluated the system responses to: (a) a multivariate business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and (b) two multivariate aprioristic scenarios, pointed to improve expected outcomes. These scenarios were based on the opinions of both stakeholders and experts. We also tested: (c) simple (univariate) aposterioristic scenarios, built from the structural analysis of the system using the sensitivity matrix. Finally, we included: (d) a trivial (and unattainable) scenario, in which every model variable was increased or decreased at convenience. The outcomes of our scenario analysis were evaluated using four different weight sets applied to the projected states of system variables, representing different strategic priorities: social-economic, environmental, mixed, and plain. Our results show that the projected outcomes differ among the tested scenarios and the strategic priority to be adopted. However, in all cases the BAU scenario was markedly the worst. For every strategic priority, some simple aposterioristic scenarios performed slightly better, as compared to the more complex aprioristic ones, and even better than the trivial scenario. This result was more noticeable under the plain strategy. We conclude that aposterioristic scenarios derived from the sensitivity matrix of the qualitative model, particularly decreasing migration risk and increasing governance strength, are the best candidates for tourism policy-making in Baru among the evaluated alternatives. These results should be put in its context and adapted before they can be transferred to other study-cases. Our findings suggest that social policy-making can benefit from structural qualitative modeling. In particular, this approach may give analytical support to the selection of intervention measures from a structural perspective, based on defined strategic priorities. For this purpose, however, the model itself and the outcomes obtained from its analysis should be updated steadily.Chilean National Agency for Research and Development (ANID) FONDECYT 1190173 Fondef ID20I1014

Modeling and analysis of intervention scenarios in socio-natural systems: The case of energy-territory sustainability system of the Coquimbo Region, Chile

[Introduction]: This study proposes advances in modeling and analysis of socio-natural systems as a result of public policies on the environment and sustainable development. [Objective]: Present a formal systemic proposal for modeling socio-natural systems in a strategic decision-making framework. [Methodology]: Based on the symbols of signed digraphs, the study offers a group of elements to analyze socio-natural model systems geared towards a prospective analysis of diverse intervention scenarios applied to the systems. New quantitative metrics are also presented to evaluate the dynamic role of the variables comprising the socio-natural systems. The energy-territory sustainability system of the Coquimbo Region in Chile is used as a case study, and the expected performance of alternative environmental management actions is evaluated on a comparative basis. [Results]: Results suggest that intervention/management actions planned based on the new metrics presented here were particularly effective in modeling scenarios projected. [Conclusions]: Qualitative structural modeling is suitable for representing and analyzing socio-natural systems, exhibiting operational advantages to support decision-making.[Introducción]: Este artículo propone avances en la modelización y el análisis de los sistemas socio-naturales objeto de las políticas públicas en medio ambiente y desarrollo sustentable. [Objetivo]: Presentar una propuesta de modelización sistémica formal de sistemas socio-naturales en contextos de decisión estratégicos. [Metodología]: Basados en el lenguaje de los digrafos signados, presentamos un conjunto de elementos de sistemas socio-naturales modelizados, orientados al análisis prospectivo de la aplicación de diversos escenarios de intervención. Mostramos también un conjunto de nuevas métricas cuantitativas para evaluar el rol dinámico de las variables componentes del sistema socio-natural. Se toma como caso de estudio el sistema de sustentabilidad de energía en el territorio de la región de Coquimbo, Chile, y se evalúa comparativamente el desempeño esperado de medidas de gestión ambiental. [Resultados]: Los resultados de este estudio sugieren que las medidas de intervención/gestión planificadas en función de las nuevas métricas presentadas en este artículo, resultan eficaces de acuerdo con los escenarios proyectados por la modelización. [Conclusiones]: La modelización estructural cualitativa es adecuada para representar y analizar sistemas socio-naturales, lo que exhibe ventajas operativas para apoyar la toma de decisiones.[Introdução]: Este artigo propõe avanços na modelagem e na análise dos sistemas socionaturais, objeto das políticas públicas em meio ambiente e desenvolvimento sustentável. [Objetivo]: Apresentar uma proposta de modelagem sistêmica formal de sistemas socionaturais em contextos de decisão estratégicos. [Metodologia]: Baseados na linguagem dos dígrafos marcados, apresentamos um conjunto de elementos de sistemas socionaturais modelados, orientados à análise prospectiva da aplicação de diversos cenários de intervenção. Mostramos também um conjunto de novas métricas quantitativas para avaliar a função dinâmica das variáveis componentes do sistema socionatural. Toma-se como caso de estudo o sistema de sustentabilidade de energia no território da região de Coquimbo, no Chile, e avalia-se comparativamente o desempenho esperado das medidas de gestão ambiental. [Resultados]: Os resultados deste estudo sugerem que as medidas de intervenção/gestão planejadas em função das novas métricas apresentadas neste artigo são eficazes, de acordo com os cenários projetados pela modelagem. [Conclusões]: A modelagem estrutural qualitativa é adequada para representar e analisar sistemas socionaturais, exibindo vantagens operativas para apoiar a tomada de decisões.&nbsp

Identification of ecologically relevant species for Ecological Risk Assessment: A proposal from theoretical ecology

En base a avances recientes en teoría de redes ecológicas, se presenta un marco conceptual ad hoc y una propuesta metodológica para la evaluación de la relevancia ecológica de las especies de una comunidad, orientada a la Evaluación de Riesgo Ecológico de sistemas acuáticos en Chile. El procedimiento es de carácter teórico y se basa en la calidad de la información disponible, es decir no requiere de evaluaciones experimentales ni observacionales de campo. Dado el estado de conocimiento actual y esperado a mediano plazo acerca de la estructura de las comunidades acuáticas locales, el método propuesto está enfocado a su aplicación en comunidades cuyo nivel de conocimiento es bajo o medio. La propuesta utiliza criterios cualitativos e índices cuantitativos (siete índices topológicos y un índice basado en modelación cualitativa) para la identificación de especies ecológicamente relevantes que representen al menos tres categorías tróficas de la comunidad.Based on recent advances in ecological network theory, we present an ad hoc conceptual framework and a methodological proposal for the evaluation of the ecological relevance of species within a community, oriented towards the Ecological Risk Assessment in Chilean aquatic systems. The procedure is theoretical and based on the quality of available information, i.e. it does not require experimental tests or field observation. Given the current and medium-term expected state of knowledge about the structure of local aquatic communities, the proposed method is focused towards its application to communities whose level of knowledge is low or medium. The proposal uses qualitative criteria and quantitative indices (seven topological indices and one index based on qualitative modeling) for the identification of ecologically relevant species that represent at least three trophic categories within the community

Core-periphery dynamics in a plant-pollinator network

Mutualistic networks are highly dynamic, characterized by high temporal turnover of species and interactions. Yet, we have a limited understanding of how the internal structure of these networks and the roles species play in them vary through time. We used 6 years of observation data and a novel statistical method (dynamic stochastic block models) to assess how network structure and species' structural position within the network change throughout subseasons of the flowering season and across years in a quantitative plant–pollinator network from a dryland ecosystem in Argentina. Our analyses revealed a core–periphery structure persistent through subseasons and years. Yet, species structural position as core or peripheral was highly dynamic: virtually all species that were at the core in some subseasons were also peripheral in other subseasons, while many other species always remained peripheral. Our results illuminate our understanding of the dynamics of mutualistic networks and have important implications for ecosystem management and conservation.Fil: Miele, Vincent. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; FranciaFil: Ramos Jiliberto, Rodrigo. Universidad Mayor; ChileFil: Vazquez, Diego P.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas; Argentin

Scaling of biological rates with body size as a backbone in the assembly of metacommunity biodiversity

The dispersal–body mass association has been highlighted as a main determi- nant of biodiversity patterns in metacommunities. However, less attention has been devoted to other well-recognized determinants of metacommunity diversity: the scaling in density and regional richness with body size. Among active dispersers, the increase in movement with body size may enhance local richness and decrease β-diversity. Nevertheless, the reduction of population size and regional richness with body mass may determine a negative diversity–body size association. Consequently, metacommunity assembly probably emerges from a balance between the effect of these scal- ings. We formalize this hypothesis by relating the exponents of size-scaling rules with simulated trends in α-, β- and γ-diversity with body size. Our results highlight that the diversity–body size relationship in metacommunities may be driven by the combined effect of different scaling rules. Given their ubiquity in most terrestrial and aquatic biotas, these scaling rules may rep- resent the basic determinants—backbone—of biodiversity, over which other mechanisms operate determining metacommunity assembly. Further studies are needed, aimed at explaining biodiversity patterns from functional relation- ships between biological rates and body size, as well as their association with environmental conditions and species interactions

Pollinator declines and the stability of plant–pollinator networks

Population declines of pollinators constitute a major concern for the fate of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services in a context of global change. Massive declines of pollinator populations driven by habitat loss, pollution, and climate change have been reported, whose consequences at community and ecosystem levels remain elusive. We conducted a mathematical modeling and computer simulation study to assess the dynamic consequences of pollinator declines for the biodiversity of plants and pollinators. Specifically, we evaluated the effects of increased mortality and decreased carrying capacity of specialist vs. generalist and effective vs. ineffective pollinators visiting specialist vs. generalist plants on long-term community biomass and species persistence. Our results reveal that increased larval mortality and increased competition for space among larvae had the greatest impacts on the decline of pollinator diversity. In contrast, the largest sustained decreases in pollinator biomass were driven by increased adult mortality in spite of a small increase in pollinator species persistence. Decreased pollinator diversity led in turn to decreased plant diversity. Attacking pollinators with high degree and connected mostly to low-degree plants produced the greatest losses of plant diversity. Pollinator effectiveness had no noticeable effect on persistence. Our results illuminate our understanding of the consequences of pollinator declines for the maintenance of biodiversity.Fil: Ramos Jiliberto, Rodrigo. Universidad Mayor; ChileFil: Moisset de Espanés, Pablo. Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering; ChileFil: Vazquez, Diego P.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Investigaciones de las Zonas Áridas; Argentin

How to feed the cities? Co-creating inclusive, healthy and sustainable city region food systems

People drive transitions. Current urban living conditions, specifically food systems, challenge the health, wellbeing and coherence of individuals and whole societies, and for effective change toward resilient communities, people need to reinvent the way they produce, distribute and consume food. Consequently, in their communities' people are creating foodscapes and governing the transition toward sustainable local food systems. Here, we introduce a conceptual framework to develop this transformation through empowering the urban multi-stakeholder society as the agent of this process. To do so, we reviewed scientific evidence and experiences from seven selected City Regions (Albacete, Baku, Dresden, Izmir, Ljubljana, Megara, and Valparaiso) as case studies and conducted a SWOT analysis to explore the capacity of food systems to enhance multi-functionality of urban landscapes, with special focus on social cohesion and quality of life. We grasp existing policies; hone them and leverage policies and strategies toward human-centered actions for future proofing food systems.Peer Reviewe

Diel vertical migration patterns of three zooplankton populations in a Chilean lake

In this work we analyzed the depth-distribution, at noon and midnight, of three zooplankton populations which are common inhabitants of lakes from central Chile and coexist in lake El Plateado. The species were Tumeodiaptomus diabolicus, Diaphanosoma chilense and Bosmina longirostris. Also, we analyzed the association between the depth-specific abundances of the groups and the depth-specific temperature and oxygen values during the sampling period. Our results show that: (1) the three population exhibited diel vertical migration during part of the year, (2) T. diabolicus and D. chilense exhibited the normal pattern of vertical migration, and B. longirostris presented both the normal and the reverse pattern; (3) for all species and most dates, zooplankters experience significant decreases in oxygen exposure as a consequence of downward migration. Temperature costs are less important but present in T. diabolicus and D. chilense during part of the year

Consequences of adaptive behaviour for the structure and dynamics of food webs

Artículo de publicación ISISpecies coexistence within ecosystems and the stability of patterns of temporal changes in population sizes are central topics in ecological theory. In the last decade, adaptive behaviour has been proposed as a mechanism of population stabilization. In particular, widely distributed adaptive trophic behaviour (ATB), the fitness-enhancing changes in individuals feeding-related traits due to variation in their trophic environment, may play a key role in modulating the dynamics of feeding relationships within natural communities. In this article, we review and synthesize models and results from theoretical research dealing with the consequences of ATB on the structure and dynamics of complex food webs. We discuss current approaches, point out limitations, and consider questions ripe for future research. In spite of some differences in the modelling and analytic approaches, there are points of convergence: (1) ATB promotes the complex structure of ecological networks, (2) ATB increases the stability of their dynamics, (3) ATB reverses May s negative complexity–stability relationship, and (4) ATB provides resilience and resistance of networks against perturbations. Current knowledge supports ATB as an essential ingredient for models of community dynamics, and future research that incorporates ATB will be well positioned to address questions important for basic ecological research and its applications.This work was supported by FONDECYT Grant 1090132 ⁄ 2009 to R.R.-J. F.S.V. and L.G.-N. acknowledge a CONICYT doctoral scholarship