A comparison of machine learning methods for classification using simulation with multiple real data examples from mental health studies

Background: Recent literature on the comparison of machine learning methods has raised questions about the neutrality, unbiasedness and utility of many comparative studies. Reporting of results on favourable datasets and sampling error in the estimated performance measures based on single samples are thought to be the major sources of bias in such comparisons. Better performance in one or a few instances does not necessarily imply so on an average or on a population level and simulation studies may be a better alternative for objectively comparing the performances of machine learning algorithms. Methods: We compare the classification performance of a number of important and widely used machine learning algorithms, namely the Random Forests (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and k-Nearest Neighbour (kNN). Using massively parallel processing on high-performance supercomputers, we compare the generalisation errors at various combinations of levels of several factors: number of features, training sample size, biological variation, experimental variation, effect size, replication and correlation between features. Results: For smaller number of correlated features, number of features not exceeding approximately half the sample size, LDA was found to be the method of choice in terms of average generalisation errors as well as stability (precision) of error estimates. SVM (with RBF kernel) outperforms LDA as well as RF and kNN by a clear margin as the feature set gets larger provided the sample size is not too small (at least 20). The performance of kNN also improves as the number of features grows and outplays that of LDA and RF unless the data variability is too high and/or effect sizes are too small. RF was found to outperform only kNN in some instances where the data are more variable and have smaller effect sizes, in which cases it also provide more stable error estimates than kNN and LDA. Applications to a number of real datasets supported the findings from the simulation study

Targeted prevention of common mental health disorders in university students: randomised controlled trial of a transdiagnostic trait-focused web-based intervention

Background: A large proportion of university students show symptoms of common mental disorders, such as depression, anxiety, substance use disorders and eating disorders. Novel interventions are required that target underlying factors of multiple disorders.<p></p> Aims: To evaluate the efficacy of a transdiagnostic trait-focused web-based intervention aimed at reducing symptoms of common mental disorders in university students.<p></p> Method: Students were recruited online (n = 1047, age: M = 21.8, SD = 4.2) and categorised into being at high or low risk for mental disorders based on their personality traits. Participants were allocated to a cognitive-behavioural trait-focused (n = 519) or a control intervention (n = 528) using computerised simple randomisation. Both interventions were fully automated and delivered online (trial registration: ISRCTN14342225). Participants were blinded and outcomes were self-assessed at baseline, at 6 weeks and at 12 weeks after registration. Primary outcomes were current depression and anxiety, assessed on the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ9) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD7). Secondary outcome measures focused on alcohol use, disordered eating, and other outcomes.<p></p> Results: Students at high risk were successfully identified using personality indicators and reported poorer mental health. A total of 520 students completed the 6-week follow-up and 401 students completed the 12-week follow-up. Attrition was high across intervention groups, but comparable to other web-based interventions. Mixed effects analyses revealed that at 12-week follow up the trait-focused intervention reduced depression scores by 3.58 (p<.001, 95%CI [5.19, 1.98]) and anxiety scores by 2.87 (p = .018, 95%CI [1.31, 4.43]) in students at high risk. In high-risk students, between group effect sizes were 0.58 (depression) and 0.42 (anxiety). In addition, self-esteem was improved. No changes were observed regarding the use of alcohol or disordered eating.<p></p> Conclusions This study suggests that a transdiagnostic web-based intervention for university students targeting underlying personality risk factors may be a promising way of preventing common mental disorders with a low-intensity intervention

Negotiation in strategy making teams : group support systems and the process of cognitive change

This paper reports on the use of a Group Support System (GSS) to explore at a micro level some of the processes manifested when a group is negotiating strategy-processes of social and psychological negotiation. It is based on data from a series of interventions with senior management teams of three operating companies comprising a multi-national organization, and with a joint meeting subsequently involving all of the previous participants. The meetings were concerned with negotiating a new strategy for the global organization. The research involved the analysis of detailed time series data logs that exist as a result of using a GSS that is a reflection of cognitive theory

Efimov effect in quantum magnets

Physics is said to be universal when it emerges regardless of the underlying microscopic details. A prominent example is the Efimov effect, which predicts the emergence of an infinite tower of three-body bound states obeying discrete scale invariance when the particles interact resonantly. Because of its universality and peculiarity, the Efimov effect has been the subject of extensive research in chemical, atomic, nuclear and particle physics for decades. Here we employ an anisotropic Heisenberg model to show that collective excitations in quantum magnets (magnons) also exhibit the Efimov effect. We locate anisotropy-induced two-magnon resonances, compute binding energies of three magnons and find that they fit into the universal scaling law. We propose several approaches to experimentally realize the Efimov effect in quantum magnets, where the emergent Efimov states of magnons can be observed with commonly used spectroscopic measurements. Our study thus opens up new avenues for universal few-body physics in condensed matter systems.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures; published versio

Against temperature chaos in naive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equations

We study the temperature structure of the naive TAP equations by mean of a recursion algorithm. The problem of the chaos in temperature is addressed using the notion of the temperature evolution of equilibrium states. The lowest free energy states show relevant correlations with the ground state, and a careful finite size analysis indicates that these correlations are not finite size effects, ruling out the possibility of chaos in temperature even in the thermodynamic limit. The correlations of the equilibrium states with respect to the ground state are investigated. The performance of a new heuristic algorithm for the search of ground states is also discussed.Comment: 13 pages, 8 eps figures. Several minor changes. References added. Published versio

Out-of-equilibrium physics in driven dissipative coupled resonator arrays

Coupled resonator arrays have been shown to exhibit interesting many- body physics including Mott and Fractional Hall states of photons. One of the main differences between these photonic quantum simulators and their cold atoms coun- terparts is in the dissipative nature of their photonic excitations. The natural equi- librium state is where there are no photons left in the cavity. Pumping the system with external drives is therefore necessary to compensate for the losses and realise non-trivial states. The external driving here can easily be tuned to be incoherent, coherent or fully quantum, opening the road for exploration of many body regimes beyond the reach of other approaches. In this chapter, we review some of the physics arising in driven dissipative coupled resonator arrays including photon fermionisa- tion, crystallisation, as well as photonic quantum Hall physics out of equilibrium. We start by briefly describing possible experimental candidates to realise coupled resonator arrays along with the two theoretical models that capture their physics, the Jaynes-Cummings-Hubbard and Bose-Hubbard Hamiltonians. A brief review of the analytical and sophisticated numerical methods required to tackle these systems is included.Comment: Chapter that appeared in "Quantum Simulations with Photons and Polaritons: Merging Quantum Optics with Condensed Matter Physics" edited by D.G.Angelakis, Quantum Science and Technology Series, Springer 201

The need to promote behaviour change at the cultural level: one factor explaining the limited impact of the MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual health intervention in rural Tanzania. A process evaluation

Background - Few of the many behavioral sexual health interventions in Africa have been rigorously evaluated. Where biological outcomes have been measured, improvements have rarely been found. One of the most rigorous trials was of the multi-component MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual health programme, which showed improvements in knowledge and reported attitudes and behaviour, but none in biological outcomes. This paper attempts to explain these outcomes by reviewing the process evaluation findings, particularly in terms of contextual factors. Methods - A large-scale, primarily qualitative process evaluation based mainly on participant observation identified the principal contextual barriers and facilitators of behavioural change. Results - The contextual barriers involved four interrelated socio-structural factors: culture (i.e. shared practices and systems of belief), economic circumstances, social status, and gender. At an individual level they appeared to operate through the constructs of the theories underlying MEMA kwa Vijana - Social Cognitive Theory and the Theory of Reasoned Action – but the intervention was unable to substantially modify these individual-level constructs, apart from knowledge. Conclusion - The process evaluation suggests that one important reason for this failure is that the intervention did not operate sufficiently at a structural level, particularly in regard to culture. Recently most structural interventions have focused on gender or/and economics. Complementing these with a cultural approach could address the belief systems that justify and perpetuate gender and economic inequalities, as well as other barriers to behaviour change

Understood at Last?: A Memetic Analysis of Beethoven’s ‘Bloody Fist’

As a singular moment in the western canon, the opening of the recapitulation in the first movement of Beethoven’s Ninth Symphony has prompted a variety of structural and expressive readings. This paper explores its intertextual connections with Mozart’s Don Giovanni from a memetic perspective, outlining certain extra musical interpretations, including some related to Susan McClary’s controversial reading of the passage, one might infer from the strong musical connections

Influence of oral beclomethasone dipropionate on early non-infectious pulmonary outcomes after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation: results from two randomized trials.

Early non-infectious pulmonary complications represent a significant cause of mortality after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We tested the hypothesis that oral beclomethasone dipropionate (BDP) is effective for preventing early non-infectious pulmonary complications after allogeneic HCT. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 120 patients, 60 in each treatment arm, to identify non-infectious and infectious pulmonary events and pulmonary function test results from all patients who participated in two randomized trials of oral BDP for treatment of acute gastrointestinal GVHD. 17-Beclomethasone monopropionate (17-BMP), the active metabolite of BDP, was evaluated in blood from the right atrium in four patients. Thirty-three of 42 (79%) placebo-treated patients experienced a decrease of the DL(CO) from pretransplant to day 80 after transplant, compared with 27 of 49 (55%) BDP-treated patients (P=0.02). In the first 200 days after randomization, there were no cases of non-infectious pulmonary complications in BDP-treated patients, vs four cases among placebo-treated patients (P=0.04). Levels of 17-BMP were detected in atrial blood at steady state. Delivery of a potent glucocorticoid such as 17-BMP to the pulmonary artery after oral dosing of BDP may be useful in modulating pulmonary inflammation and preventing the development of non-infectious pulmonary complications after allogeneic HCT.Bone Marrow Transplantation advance online publication, 29 June 2009; doi:10.1038/bmt.2009.129