Cooperation and Contagion in Web-Based, Networked Public Goods Experiments

A longstanding idea in the literature on human cooperation is that cooperation should be reinforced when conditional cooperators are more likely to interact. In the context of social networks, this idea implies that cooperation should fare better in highly clustered networks such as cliques than in networks with low clustering such as random networks. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a series of web-based experiments, in which 24 individuals played a local public goods game arranged on one of five network topologies that varied between disconnected cliques and a random regular graph. In contrast with previous theoretical work, we found that network topology had no significant effect on average contributions. This result implies either that individuals are not conditional cooperators, or else that cooperation does not benefit from positive reinforcement between connected neighbors. We then tested both of these possibilities in two subsequent series of experiments in which artificial seed players were introduced, making either full or zero contributions. First, we found that although players did generally behave like conditional cooperators, they were as likely to decrease their contributions in response to low contributing neighbors as they were to increase their contributions in response to high contributing neighbors. Second, we found that positive effects of cooperation were contagious only to direct neighbors in the network. In total we report on 113 human subjects experiments, highlighting the speed, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness of web-based experiments over those conducted in physical labs

Biomedical journals and databases in Russia and Russian language in the former Soviet Union and beyond

In the 20th century, Russian biomedical science experienced a decline from the blossom of the early years to a drastic state. Through the first decades of the USSR, it was transformed to suit the ideological requirements of a totalitarian state and biased directives of communist leaders. Later, depressing economic conditions and isolation from the international research community further impeded its development. Contemporary Russia has inherited a system of medical education quite different from the west as well as counterproductive regulations for the allocation of research funding. The methodology of medical and epidemiological research in Russia is largely outdated. Epidemiology continues to focus on infectious disease and results of the best studies tend to be published in international periodicals. MEDLINE continues to be the best database to search for Russian biomedical publications, despite only a small proportion being indexed. The database of the Moscow Central Medical Library is the largest national database of medical periodicals, but does not provide abstracts and full subject heading codes, and it does not cover even the entire collection of the Library. New databases and catalogs (e.g. Panteleimon) that have appeared recently are incomplete and do not enable effective searching

Phase transitions in contagion processes mediated by recurrent mobility patterns

Human mobility and activity patterns mediate contagion on many levels, including the spatial spread of infectious diseases, diffusion of rumors, and emergence of consensus. These patterns however are often dominated by specific locations and recurrent flows and poorly modeled by the random diffusive dynamics generally used to study them. Here we develop a theoretical framework to analyze contagion within a network of locations where individuals recall their geographic origins. We find a phase transition between a regime in which the contagion affects a large fraction of the system and one in which only a small fraction is affected. This transition cannot be uncovered by continuous deterministic models due to the stochastic features of the contagion process and defines an invasion threshold that depends on mobility parameters, providing guidance for controlling contagion spread by constraining mobility processes. We recover the threshold behavior by analyzing diffusion processes mediated by real human commuting data.Comment: 20 pages of Main Text including 4 figures, 7 pages of Supplementary Information; Nature Physics (2011

Efficiency in a forced contribution threshold public good game

We contrast and compare three ways of predicting efficiency in a forced contribution threshold public good game. The three alternatives are based on ordinal potential, quantal response and impulse balance theory. We report an experiment designed to test the respective predictions and find that impulse balance gives the best predictions. A simple expression detailing when enforced contributions result in high or low efficiency is provided

Engrained experience—a comparison of microclimate perception schemata and microclimate measurements in Dutch urban squares

Acceptance of public spaces is often guided by perceptual schemata. Such schemata also seem to play a role in thermal comfort and microclimate experience. For climate-responsive design with a focus on thermal comfort it is important to acquire knowledge about these schemata. For this purpose, perceived and “real” microclimate situations were compared for three Dutch urban squares. People were asked about their long-term microclimate perceptions, which resulted in “cognitive microclimate maps”. These were compared with mapped microclimate data from measurements representing the common microclimate when people stay outdoors. The comparison revealed some unexpected low matches; people clearly overestimated the influence of the wind. Therefore, a second assumption was developed: that it is the more salient wind situations that become engrained in people’s memory. A comparison using measurement data from windy days shows better matches. This suggests that these more salient situations play a role in the microclimate schemata that people develop about urban places. The consequences from this study for urban design are twofold. Firstly, urban design should address not only the “real” problems, but, more prominently, the “perceived” problems. Secondly, microclimate simulations addressing thermal comfort issues in urban spaces should focus on these perceived, salient situations

Global quantitative indices reflecting provider process-of-care: data-base derivation

Background: Controversy has attended the relationship between risk-adjusted mortality and process-of-care. There would be advantage in the establishment, at the data-base level, of global quantitative indices subsuming the diversity of process-of-care. Methods: A retrospective, cohort study of patients identified in the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database, 1993-2003, at the level of geographic and ICU-level descriptors (n = 35), for both hospital survivors and non-survivors. Process-of-care indices were established by analysis of: (i) the smoothed time-hazard curve of individual patient discharge and determined by pharmaco-kinetic methods as area under the hazard-curve (AUC), reflecting the integrated experience of the discharge process, and time-to-peak-hazard (TMAX, in days), reflecting the time to maximum rate of hospital discharge; and (ii) individual patient ability to optimize output (as length-of-stay) for recorded data-base physiological inputs; estimated as a technical production-efficiency (TE, scaled [0,(maximum)1]), via the econometric technique of stochastic frontier analysis. For each descriptor, multivariate correlation-relationships between indices and summed mortality probability were determined. Results: The data-set consisted of 223129 patients from 99 ICUs with mean (SD) age and APACHE III score of 59.2(18.9) years and 52.7(30.6) respectively; 41.7% were female and 45.7% were mechanically ventilated within the first 24 hours post-admission. For survivors, AUC was maximal in rural and for-profit ICUs, whereas TMAX (≥ 7.8 days) and TE (≥ 0.74) were maximal in tertiary-ICUs. For non-survivors, AUC was maximal in tertiary-ICUs, but TMAX (≥ 4.2 days) and TE (≥ 0.69) were maximal in for-profit ICUs. Across descriptors, significant differences in indices were demonstrated (analysisof- variance, P ≤ 0.0001). Total explained variance, for survivors (0.89) and non-survivors (0.89), was maximized by combinations of indices demonstrating a low correlation with mortality probability. Conclusions: Global indices reflecting process of care may be formally established at the level of national patient databases. These indices appear orthogonal to mortality outcome.John L Moran, Patricia J Solomon and the Adult Database Management Committee (ADMC) of the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS

Axelrod’s metanorm games on networks

Metanorms is a mechanism proposed to promote cooperation in social dilemmas. Recent experimental results show that network structures that underlie social interactions influence the emergence of norms that promote cooperation. We generalize Axelrod’s analysis of metanorms dynamics to interactions unfolding on networks through simulation and mathematical modeling. Network topology strongly influences the effectiveness of the metanorms mechanism in establishing cooperation. In particular, we find that average degree, clustering coefficient and the average number of triplets per node play key roles in sustaining or collapsing cooperationSpanish MICINN projects CSD2010-00034 (CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010) and DPI2010-16920, and by the Junta de Castilla y Leo´ n, references BU034A08 and GREX251-2009

Diagnostic and prognostic value of procalcitonin among febrile critically ill patients with prolonged ICU stay

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Procalcitonin (PCT) has been proposed as a diagnostic and prognostic sepsis marker, but has never been validated in febrile patients with prolonged ICU stay.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Patients were included in the study provided they were hospitalised in the ICU for > 10 days, were free of infection and presented a new episode of SIRS, with fever >38°C being obligatory. Fifty patients fulfilled the above criteria. PCT was measured daily during the ICU stay. The primary outcome was proven infection.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-seven out of 50 patients were diagnosed with infection. Median PCT on the day of fever was 1.18 and 0.17 ng/ml for patients with and without proven infections (p < 0.001). The area under the curve for PCT was 0.85 (95% CI; 0.71-0.93), for CRP 0.65 (0.46-0.78) and for WBC 0.68 (0.49-0.81). A PCT level of 1 ng/mL yielded a negative predictive value of 72% for the presence of infection, while a PCT of 1.16 had a specificity of 100%. A two-fold increase of PCT between fever onset and the previous day was associated with proven infection (p 0.001) (OR = 8.55; 2.4-31.1), whereas a four-fold increase of PCT of any of the 6 preceding days was associated with a positive predictive value exceeding 69.65%. A PCT value less than 0.5 ng/ml on the third day after the advent of fever was associated with favorable survival (p 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The reported data support that serial serum PCT may be a valuable diagnostic and prognostic marker in febrile chronic critically ill patients.</p