Averaging and Adding in Children's Worth Judgements

Under the normative Expected Value (EV) model, multiple outcomes are additive, but in everyday worth judgement intuitive averaging prevails. Young children also use averaging in EV judgements, leading to a disordinal, crossover violation of utility when children average the part worths of simple gambles involving independent events (Schlottmann, 2000). This study explored the origins of this averaging bias in children‘s worth judgements, assessing whether averaging also appears for riskless judgements and for other types of risky judgements. In Experiment 1, 8- year-olds judged the worth of having either one or two squares of chocolates in two formally equivalent tasks: Children made additive worth judgements when chocolates varied in size, but used averaging when they varied in winning probability. Performance on the EV task was slightly more advanced when risky followed riskless judgements, with some evidence of transfer. In Experiment 2, 5-year-olds gave additive worth judgements when judging variable fractions of chocolate pies, with displays closely parallel to the spinner discs used for the gambles in Experiment 1. In Experiment 3, 5-yearolds gave additive worth judgements of gambles in which to win either one or two prizes, with alternative rather than independent probabilities of winning. Thus the overgeneralisation of averaging processes to EV judgement, while persistent, neither reflects a general difficulty with additive value judgement, nor with displays showing positive and negative information, nor with risky judgement per se. It may come into play because children have difficulty appreciating the implications of independence, apparent also in other domains. Despite such difficulty, children realize that risky game outcomes go beyond what they can see, and so may apply averaging, as default strategy for population judgement, whereas addition might be the default for judging the sample itself

A Dashboard for Security Forces Data Visualization and Storytelling

Neto, M. D. C., Nascimento, M., Sarmento, P., Ribeiro, S., Rodrigues, T., & Painho, M. (2019). A Dashboard for Security Forces Data Visualization and Storytelling. In I. Ramos, R. Quaresma, P. R. D. Silva, & T. Oliveira (Eds.), Information Systems for Industry 4.0: Proceedings of the 18th Conference of the Portuguese Association for Information Systems (pp. 47-62). (Lecture Notes in Information Systems and Organisation; Vol. 31). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-14850-8_4Being security assumed as a basic right of citizens in the current model of democratic rule of law, optimal resources allocation altogether with budgetary constraints are a key component. In fact optimal resources allocation and budgetary constraints oblige an increasingly careful strategic management, adapted to demographic reality. The SIM4SECURITY project aims to build a technological solution to support decision making regarding security, based on the development of a GIS model and in the implementation of demographic scenarios. This model will allow policy makers, leaders and forces of command units and services in the planning and rational affectation of resources adjusted to local dynamics in crime prevention and crime fighting. To communicate the SIM4SECURITY results and support decision making, a data visualization and storytelling approach was adopted by creating dashboards containing the various dimensions and perspectives of the information were elaborated and are presented. The obtained outcomes show that dashboards are an important visual tool in the decision-making process by providing meaningful insights regarding security and in the location-allocation of security forces.authorsversionpublishe

Cross-Attraction between an Exotic and a Native Pine Bark Beetle: A Novel Invasion Mechanism?

Aside from the ecological impacts, invasive species fascinate ecologists because of the unique opportunities that invasives offer in the study of community ecology. Some hypotheses have been proposed to illustrate the mechanisms that allow exotics to become invasive. However, positive interactions between exotic and native insects are rarely utilized to explain invasiveness of pests.Here, we present information on a recently formed association between a native and an exotic bark beetle on their shared host, Pinus tabuliformis, in China. In field examinations, we found that 35-40% of P. tabuliformis attacked by an exotic bark beetle, Dendroctonus valens, were also attacked by a native pine bark beetle, Hylastes parallelus. In the laboratory, we found that the antennal and walking responses of H. parallelus to host- and beetle-produced compounds were similar to those of the exotic D. valens in China. In addition, D. valens was attracted to volatiles produced by the native H. parallelus.We report, for the first time, facilitation between an exotic and a native bark beetle seems to involve overlap in the use of host attractants and pheromones, which is cross-attraction. The concept of this interspecific facilitation could be explored as a novel invasive mechanism which helps explain invasiveness of not only exotic bark beetles but also other introduced pests in principle. The results reported here also have particularly important implications for risk assessments and management strategies for invasive species

Marginal increase of sunitinib exposure by grapefruit juice

Clinical Oncolog

Stability of Strong Species Interactions Resist the Synergistic Effects of Local and Global Pollution in Kelp Forests

Foundation species, such as kelp, exert disproportionately strong community effects and persist, in part, by dominating taxa that inhibit their regeneration. Human activities which benefit their competitors, however, may reduce stability of communities, increasing the probability of phase-shifts. We tested whether a foundation species (kelp) would continue to inhibit a key competitor (turf-forming algae) under moderately increased local (nutrient) and near-future forecasted global pollution (CO2). Our results reveal that in the absence of kelp, local and global pollutants combined to cause the greatest cover and mass of turfs, a synergistic response whereby turfs increased more than would be predicted by adding the independent effects of treatments (kelp absence, elevated nutrients, forecasted CO2). The positive effects of nutrient and CO2 enrichment on turfs were, however, inhibited by the presence of kelp, indicating the competitive effect of kelp was stronger than synergistic effects of moderate enrichment of local and global pollutants. Quantification of physicochemical parameters within experimental mesocosms suggests turf inhibition was likely due to an effect of kelp on physical (i.e. shading) rather than chemical conditions. Such results indicate that while forecasted climates may increase the probability of phase-shifts, maintenance of intact populations of foundation species could enable the continued strength of interactions and persistence of communities

The relationship between parent and child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep and child sleep

Cognitive theories emphasise the role of dysfunctional beliefs about sleep in the development and maintenance of sleep-related problems (SRPs). The present research examines how parents' dysfunctional beliefs about children's sleep and child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep are related to each other and to children's subjective and objective sleep. Participants were 45 children aged 11 -12 years and their parents. Self-report measures of dysfunctional beliefs about sleep and child sleep were completed by children, mothers and fathers. Objective measures of child sleep were taken using actigraphy. The results showed that child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep were correlated with father (r=.43, p<.05) and mother (r=.43, p<.05) reported child SRPs, and with Sleep Onset Latency (r=.34, p<.05). Maternal dysfunctional beliefs about child sleep were related to child SRPs as reported by mothers (r=.44, p<.05), and to child dysfunctional beliefs about sleep (r=.37, p<.05). Some initial evidence was found for a mediation pathway in which child dyfunctional beliefs mediate the relationship between parent dysfunctional beliefs and child sleep. The results support the cognitive model of SRPs and contribute to the literature by providing the first evidence of familial aggregation of dysfunctional beliefs about sleep

The reliability of three-dimensional scapular attitudes in healthy people and people with shoulder impingement syndrome

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Abnormal scapular displacements during arm elevation have been observed in people with shoulder impingement syndrome. These abnormal scapular displacements were evaluated using different methods and instruments allowing a 3-dimensional representation of the scapular kinematics. The validity and the intrasession reliability have been shown for the majority of these methods for healthy people. However, the intersession reliability on healthy people and people with impaired shoulders is not well documented. This measurement property needs to be assessed before using such methods in longitudinal comparative studies. The objective of this study is to evaluate the intra and intersession reliability of 3-dimensional scapular attitudes measured at different arm positions in healthy people and to explore the same measurement properties in people with shoulder impingement syndrome using the Optotrak Probing System.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three-dimensional scapular attitudes were measured twice (test and retest interspaced by one week) on fifteen healthy subjects (mean age 37.3 years) and eight subjects with subacromial shoulder impingement syndrome (mean age 46.1 years) in three arm positions (arm at rest, 70° of humerothoracic flexion and 90° of humerothoracic abduction) using the Optotrak Probing System. Two different methods of calculation of 3-dimensional scapular attitudes were used: relative to the position of the scapula at rest and relative to the trunk. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and standard error of measure (SEM) were used to estimate intra and intersession reliability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For both groups, the reliability of the three-dimensional scapular attitudes for elevation positions was very good during the same session (ICCs from 0.84 to 0.99; SEM from 0.6° to 1.9°) and good to very good between sessions (ICCs from 0.62 to 0.97; SEM from 1.2° to 4.2°) when using the method of calculation relative to the trunk. Higher levels of intersession reliability were found for the method of calculation relative to the trunk in anterior-posterior tilting at 70° of flexion compared to the method of calculation relative to the scapula at rest.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The estimation of three-dimensional scapular attitudes using the method of calculation relative to the trunk is reproducible in the three arm positions evaluated and can be used to document the scapular behavior.</p

Evaluation of Stepping Stones as a tool for changing knowledge, attitudes and behaviours associated with gender, relationships and HIV risk in Karnataka, India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Stepping Stones training aims to help individuals explore sexual relationships and recognize gender inequalities, the structural drivers of the HIV epidemic, in order to understand risk behaviours and to seek solutions to factors that increase HIV vulnerability. Despite earlier studies suggesting the success of Stepping Stones, little data exist to show diffusion to trainees' social networks or the wider community.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A mixed-methods evaluation of this approach was undertaken using in-depth interviews of trainees and friends, and polling booth surveys in 20 villages where Stepping Stones training took place and in another 20 villages with no Stepping Stones intervention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The interview respondents and their friends reported significant changes in their relationships after training, and benefit from discussion of gender, sexuality, condom use and HIV vulnerability issues. However, though diffusion of this knowledge at the level of personal contacts was strong, the evaluation revealed that diffusion to the community level was limited.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The qualitative part of this study reflects other studies in different settings, in that SS participants gained immensely from the training. Wider behaviour change is a challenging goal that many programmes fail to attain, with most interventions too limited in scope and intensity to produce larger community effects. This may have contributed to the fact that we observed few differences between interventions and non-intervention villages in this study. However, it is also possible that we had excessive expectations of individual change at the community level, and that it might have been more appropriate to have had broader community level rather than individual behavioural change indicators. We suggest that SS could be enhanced by efforts to better engage existing community opinion leaders, to empower and train participants as community change agents, and to support the development of village-level action plans that combat sexual stereotyping and risky behaviours that lead to unhealthy sexual relationships.</p