Membrane Paradigm and Horizon Thermodynamics in Lanczos-Lovelock gravity

We study the membrane paradigm for horizons in Lanczos-Lovelock models of gravity in arbitrary D dimensions and find compact expressions for the pressure p and viscosity coefficients \eta and \zeta of the membrane fluid. We show that the membrane pressure is intimately connected with the Noether charge entropy S_Wald of the horizon when we consider a specific m-th order Lanczos-Lovelock model, through the relation pA/T=(D-2m)/(D-2)S_Wald, where T is the temperature and A is the area of the horizon. Similarly, the viscosity coefficients are expressible in terms of entropy and quasi-local energy associated with the horizons. The bulk and shear viscosity coefficients are found to obey the relation \zeta=-2(D-3)/(D-2)\eta.Comment: v1: 13 pages, no figure. (v2): refs added, typos corrected, new subsection added on the ratio \eta/s. (v3): some clarification added, typos corrected, to appear in JHE

Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1)

Abstract Background Clearly air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from one geographic location to another, significantly affects the rate of spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, the possibility of within-flight transmission of H1N1 has not been evaluated; although it is known that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, SARS and seasonal influenza can be transmitted during commercial flights. Here we present the first quantitative risk assessment to assess the potential for within-flight transmission of H1N1. Methods We model airborne transmission of infectious viral particles of H1N1 within a Boeing 747 using methodology from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment. Results The risk of catching H1N1 will essentially be confined to passengers travelling in the same cabin as the source case. Not surprisingly, we find that the longer the flight the greater the number of infections that can be expected. We calculate that H1N1, even during long flights, poses a low to moderate within-flight transmission risk if the source case travels First Class. Specifically, 0-1 infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 1-3 during an 11 hour flight and 2-5 during a 17 hour flight. However, within-flight transmission could be significant, particularly during long flights, if the source case travels in Economy Class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 5-10 during an 11 hour flight and 7-17 during a 17 hour flight. If the aircraft is only partially loaded, under certain conditions more infections could occur in First Class than in Economy Class. During a 17 hour flight, a greater number of infections would occur in First Class than in Economy if the First Class Cabin is fully occupied, but Economy class is less than 30% full. Conclusions Our results provide insights into the potential utility of air travel restrictions on controlling influenza pandemics in the winter of 2009/2010. They show travel by one infectious individual, rather than causing a single outbreak of H1N1, could cause several simultaneous outbreaks. These results imply that, during a pandemic, quarantining passengers who travel in Economy on long-haul flights could potentially be an important control strategy. Notably, our results show that quarantining passengers who travel First Class would be unlikely to be an effective control strategy

From where did the 2009 'swine-origin' influenza A virus (H1N1) emerge?

The swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus that appeared in 2009 and was first found in human beings in Mexico, is a reassortant with at least three parents. Six of the genes are closest in sequence to those of H1N2 'triple-reassortant' influenza viruses isolated from pigs in North America around 1999-2000. Its other two genes are from different Eurasian 'avian-like' viruses of pigs; the NA gene is closest to H1N1 viruses isolated in Europe in 1991-1993, and the MP gene is closest to H3N2 viruses isolated in Asia in 1999-2000. The sequences of these genes do not directly reveal the immediate source of the virus as the closest were from isolates collected more than a decade before the human pandemic started. The three parents of the virus may have been assembled in one place by natural means, such as by migrating birds, however the consistent link with pig viruses suggests that human activity was involved. We discuss a published suggestion that unsampled pig herds, the intercontinental live pig trade, together with porous quarantine barriers, generated the reassortant. We contrast that suggestion with the possibility that laboratory errors involving the sharing of virus isolates and cultured cells, or perhaps vaccine production, may have been involved. Gene sequences from isolates that bridge the time and phylogenetic gap between the new virus and its parents will distinguish between these possibilities, and we suggest where they should be sought. It is important that the source of the new virus be found if we wish to avoid future pandemics rather than just trying to minimize the consequences after they have emerged. Influenza virus is a very significant zoonotic pathogen. Public confidence in influenza research, and the agribusinesses that are based on influenza's many hosts, has been eroded by several recent events involving the virus. Measures that might restore confidence include establishing a unified international administrative framework coordinating surveillance, research and commercial work with this virus, and maintaining a registry of all influenza isolates

Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility

On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data worldwide in order to estimate the transmission potential and the relevant model parameters we used the data on the chronology of the 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1). The method is based on the maximum likelihood analysis of the arrival time distribution generated by the model in 12 countries seeded by Mexico by using 1M computationally simulated epidemics. An extended chronology including 93 countries worldwide seeded before 18 June was used to ascertain the seasonality effects. We found the best estimate R0 = 1.75 (95% CI 1.64 to 1.88) for the basic reproductive number. Correlation analysis allows the selection of the most probable seasonal behavior based on the observed pattern, leading to the identification of plausible scenarios for the future unfolding of the pandemic and the estimate of pandemic activity peaks in the different hemispheres. We provide estimates for the number of hospitalizations and the attack rate for the next wave as well as an extensive sensitivity analysis on the disease parameter values. We also studied the effect of systematic therapeutic use of antiviral drugs on the epidemic timeline. The analysis shows the potential for an early epidemic peak occurring in October/November in the Northern hemisphere, likely before large-scale vaccination campaigns could be carried out. We suggest that the planning of additional mitigation policies such as systematic antiviral treatments might be the key to delay the activity peak inorder to restore the effectiveness of the vaccination programs.Comment: Paper: 29 Pages, 3 Figures and 5 Tables. Supplementary Information: 29 Pages, 5 Figures and 7 Tables. Print version: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/7/4

Genomic Signature-Based Identification of Influenza A Viruses Using RT-PCR/Electro-Spray Ionization Mass Spectrometry (ESI-MS) Technology

BACKGROUND: The emergence and rapid spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza A virus (H1N1pdm) in humans highlights the importance of enhancing the capability of existing influenza surveillance systems with tools for rapid identification of emerging and re-emerging viruses. One of the new approaches is the RT-PCR electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (RT-PCR/ESI-MS) technology, which is based on analysis of base composition (BC) of RT-PCR amplicons from influenza "core" genes. Combination of the BC signatures represents a "genomic print" of an influenza A virus. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, 757 samples collected between 2006 and 2009 were tested, including 302 seasonal H1N1, 171 H3N2, 7 swine triple reassortants, and 277 H1N1pdm viruses. Of the 277 H1N1pdm samples, 209 were clinical specimens (throat, nasal and nasopharyngeal swabs, nasal washes, blood and sputum). BC signatures for the clinical specimen from one of the first cases of the 2009 pandemic, A/California/04/2009, confirmed it as an unusual, previously unrecognized influenza A virus, with "core" genes related to viruses of avian, human and swine origins. Subsequent analysis of additional 276 H1N1pdm samples revealed that they shared the genomic print of A/California/04/2009, which differed from those of North American swine triple reassortant viruses, seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 and other viruses tested. Moreover, this assay allowed distinction between "core" genes of co-circulating groups of seasonal H1N1, such as clades 2B, 2C, and their reassortants with dual antiviral resistance to adamantanes and oseltamivir. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The RT-PCR/ESI-MS assay is a broad range influenza identification tool that can be used directly on clinical specimens for rapid and accurate detection of influenza virus genes. The assay differentiates the H1N1pdm from seasonal and other nonhuman hosts viruses. Although not a diagnostic tool, this assay demonstrates its usefulness and robustness in influenza virus surveillance and detection of novel and unusual viruses with previously unseen genomic prints

Evolutionary Trends of A(H1N1) Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Since 1918

The Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 is spreading to numerous countries and causing many human deaths. Although the symptoms in humans are mild at present, fears are that further mutations in the virus could lead to a potentially more dangerous outbreak in subsequent months. As the primary immunity-eliciting antigen, hemagglutinin (HA) is the major agent for host-driven antigenic drift in A(H3N2) virus. However, whether and how the evolution of HA is influenced by existing immunity is poorly understood for A(H1N1). Here, by analyzing hundreds of A(H1N1) HA sequences since 1918, we show the first evidence that host selections are indeed present in A(H1N1) HAs. Among a subgroup of human A(H1N1) HAs between 1918∼2008, we found strong diversifying (positive) selection at HA1 156 and 190. We also analyzed the evolutionary trends at HA1 190 and 225 that are critical determinants for receptor-binding specificity of A(H1N1) HA. Different A(H1N1) viruses appeared to favor one of these two sites in host-driven antigenic drift: epidemic A(H1N1) HAs favor HA1 190 while the 1918 pandemic and swine HAs favor HA1 225. Thus, our results highlight the urgency to understand the interplay between antigenic drift and receptor binding in HA evolution, and provide molecular signatures for monitoring future antigenically drifted 2009 pandemic and seasonal A(H1N1) influenza viruses

Using Non-Homogeneous Models of Nucleotide Substitution to Identify Host Shift Events: Application to the Origin of the 1918 ‘Spanish’ Influenza Pandemic Virus

Nonhomogeneous Markov models of nucleotide substitution have received scant attention. Here we explore the possibility of using nonhomogeneous models to identify host shift nodes along phylogenetic trees of pathogens evolving in different hosts. It has been noticed that influenza viruses show marked differences in nucleotide composition in human and avian hosts. We take advantage of this fact to identify the host shift event that led to the 1918 ‘Spanish’ influenza. This disease killed over 50 million people worldwide, ranking it as the deadliest pandemic in recorded history. Our model suggests that the eight RNA segments which eventually became the 1918 viral genome were introduced into a mammalian host around 1882–1913. The viruses later diverged into the classical swine and human H1N1 influenza lineages around 1913–1915. The last common ancestor of human strains dates from February 1917 to April 1918. Because pigs are more readily infected with avian influenza viruses than humans, it would seem that they were the original recipient of the virus. This would suggest that the virus was introduced into humans sometime between 1913 and 1918

Characterization of Genome-Wide Association-Identified Variants for Atrial Fibrillation in African Americans

Despite a greater burden of risk factors, atrial fibrillation (AF) is less common among African Americans than European-descent populations. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for AF in European-descent populations have identified three predominant genomic regions associated with increased risk (1q21, 4q25, and 16q22). The contribution of these loci to AF risk in African American is unknown.We studied 73 African Americans with AF from the Vanderbilt-Meharry AF registry and 71 African American controls, with no history of AF including after cardiac surgery. Tests of association were performed for 148 SNPs across the three regions associated with AF, and 22 SNPs were significantly associated with AF (P<0.05). The SNPs with the strongest associations in African Americans were both different from the index SNPs identified in European-descent populations and independent from the index European-descent population SNPs (r(2)<0.40 in HapMap CEU): 1q21 rs4845396 (odds ratio [OR] 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.13-0.67, P = 0.003), 4q25 rs4631108 (OR 3.43, 95% CI 1.59-7.42, P = 0.002), and 16q22 rs16971547 (OR 8.1, 95% CI 1.46-45.4, P = 0.016). Estimates of European ancestry were similar among cases (23.6%) and controls (23.8%). Accordingly, the probability of having two copies of the European derived chromosomes at each region did not differ between cases and controls.Variable European admixture at known AF loci does not explain decreased AF susceptibility in African Americans. These data support the role of 1q21, 4q25, and 16q22 variants in AF risk for African Americans, although the index SNPs differ from those identified in European-descent populations

Structural and Functional Analysis of Laninamivir and its Octanoate Prodrug Reveals Group Specific Mechanisms for Influenza NA Inhibition

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic (pH1N1) led to record sales of neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors, which has contributed significantly to the recent increase in oseltamivir-resistant viruses. Therefore, development and careful evaluation of novel NA inhibitors is of great interest. Recently, a highly potent NA inhibitor, laninamivir, has been approved for use in Japan. Laninamivir is effective using a single inhaled dose via its octanoate prodrug (CS-8958) and has been demonstrated to be effective against oseltamivir-resistant NA in vitro. However, effectiveness of laninamivir octanoate prodrug against oseltamivir-resistant influenza infection in adults has not been demonstrated. NA is classified into 2 groups based upon phylogenetic analysis and it is becoming clear that each group has some distinct structural features. Recently, we found that pH1N1 N1 NA (p09N1) is an atypical group 1 NA with some group 2-like features in its active site (lack of a 150-cavity). Furthermore, it has been reported that certain oseltamivir-resistant substitutions in the NA active site are group 1 specific. In order to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of laninamivir, we utilized recombinant N5 (typical group 1), p09N1 (atypical group 1) and N2 from the 1957 pandemic H2N2 (p57N2) (typical group 2) to carry out in vitro inhibition assays. We found that laninamivir and its octanoate prodrug display group specific preferences to different influenza NAs and provide the structural basis of their specific action based upon their novel complex crystal structures. Our results indicate that laninamivir and zanamivir are more effective against group 1 NA with a 150-cavity than group 2 NA with no 150-cavity. Furthermore, we have found that the laninamivir octanoate prodrug has a unique binding mode in p09N1 that is different from that of group 2 p57N2, but with some similarities to NA-oseltamivir binding, which provides additional insight into group specific differences of oseltamivir binding and resistance