Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

BACKGROUND: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. RESULTS: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions

Phenotypic redshifts with self-organizing maps: A novel method to characterize redshift distributions of source galaxies for weak lensing

Wide-field imaging surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES) rely on coarse measurements of spectral energy distributions in a few filters to estimate the redshift distribution of source galaxies. In this regime, sample variance, shot noise, and selection effects limit the attainable accuracy of redshift calibration and thus of cosmological constraints. We present a new method to combine wide-field, few-filter measurements with catalogs from deep fields with additional filters and sufficiently low photometric noise to break degeneracies in photometric redshifts. The multi-band deep field is used as an intermediary between wide-field observations and accurate redshifts, greatly reducing sample variance, shot noise, and selection effects. Our implementation of the method uses self-organizing maps to group galaxies into phenotypes based on their observed fluxes, and is tested using a mock DES catalog created from N-body simulations. It yields a typical uncertainty on the mean redshift in each of five tomographic bins for an idealized simulation of the DES Year 3 weak-lensing tomographic analysis of $\sigma_{\Delta z} = 0.007$, which is a 60% improvement compared to the Year 1 analysis. Although the implementation of the method is tailored to DES, its formalism can be applied to other large photometric surveys with a similar observing strategy.Comment: 24 pages, 11 figures; matches version accepted to MNRA

Survivorship of Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in Relation with Malaria Incidence in the Brazilian Amazon

We performed a longitudinal study of adult survival of Anopheles darlingi, the most important vector in the Amazon, in a malarigenous frontier zone of Brazil. Survival rates were determined from both parous rates and multiparous dissections. Anopheles darlingi human biting rates, daily survival rates and expectation of life where higher in the dry season, as compared to the rainy season, and were correlated with malaria incidence. The biting density of mosquitoes that had survived long enough for completing at least one sporogonic cycle was related with the number of malaria cases by linear regression. Survival rates were the limiting factor explaining longitudinal variations in Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence and the association between adult mosquito survival and malaria was statistically significant by logistic regression (P<0.05). Survival rates were better correlated with malaria incidence than adult mosquito biting density. Mathematical modeling showed that P. falciparum and P. malariae were more vulnerable to changes in mosquito survival rates because of longer sporogonic cycle duration, as compared to P. vivax, which could account for the low prevalence of the former parasites observed in the study area. Population modeling also showed that the observed decreases in human biting rates in the wet season could be entirely explained by decreases in survival rates, suggesting that decreased breeding did not occur in the wet season, at the sites where adult mosquitoes were collected. For the first time in the literature, multivariate methods detected a statistically significant inverse relation (P<0.05) between the number of rainy days per month and daily survival rates, suggesting that rainfall may cause adult mortality

Annual variations in the number of malaria cases related to two different patterns of Anopheles darlingi transmission potential in the Maroni area of French Guiana

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With an Annual Parasite Incidence (API) of 132.1, in the high and moderate risks zones, the Maroni area of French Guiana has the second highest malaria incidence of South-America after Guyana (API = 183.54) and far above Brazil (API = 28.25). Malaria transmission is occurring despite strong medical assistance and active vector control, based on general WHO recommendations. This situation is generated by two main factors that are the social and cultural characteristics of this border area, where several ethnic groups are living, and the lack of understanding of transmission dynamics of the main mosquito vector, <it>Anopheles darlingi.</it> In this context, entomological data collected in two villages belonging to two different ethnic groups of the French border of the Maroni River, were retrospectively analysed to find out how the mosquito bionomics are related to the malaria transmission patterns.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were provided by human landing catches of mosquitoes carried out each month for two years in two villages belonging to two ethnic groups, the Amerindians Wayanas and the Aloukous of African origin. The mosquitoes were sorted by species, sex, date, hour and place of collection and processed for <it>Plasmodium sp</it>. parasite detection. The data were compiled to provide the following variables: human biting rates (HBR), parity rates (PR), numbers of infective bites (IB), entomological inoculation rates (EIR) and numbers of infected mosquitoes surviving enough to transmit (IMT). Spatial and temporal differences of variables between locations and during the night were tested by the Kruskall-Wallis analysis of variance to find out significant variations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The populations of the main mosquito vector <it>An. darlingi </it>showed significant variations in the spatial and temporal HBR/person/night and HBR/person/hour, IB/person/month and IB/person/hour, and IMT/village/night and IMT/village/hour. In the village of Loca (Aloukous), the IMT peaked from June to August with a very low transmission during the other months. The risks were higher during the first part of the night and an EIR of 10 infective bites per person and per year was estimated. In the village of Twenke (Wayanas), high level of transmission was reported all year with small peaks in March and October. The risk was higher during the second part of the night and an EIR of 5 infective bites per person and per year was estimated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>For the first time in the past 40 years, the mosquito bionomics was related to the malaria transmission patterns in French Guiana. The peak of malaria cases reported from August to October in the Maroni region is concomitant with the significant peak of <it>An. darlingi </it>IMT, reported from the village of Loca where transmission is higher. However, the persistent number of cases reported all year long may also be related to the transmission in the Amerindian villages. The <it>An. darlingi </it>bionomics for these two close populations were found significantly different and may explain why a uniform vector control method is inadequate. Following these findings, malaria prevention measures adapted to the local conditions are needed. Finally, the question of the presence of <it>An. darlingi </it>sub-species is raised.</p

Synchronous Rotation in the (136199) Eris–Dysnomia System

We combine photometry of Eris from a 6 month campaign on the Palomar 60 inch telescope in 2015, a 1 month Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 campaign in 2018, and Dark Energy Survey data spanning 2013–2018 to determine a light curve of definitive period 15.771 ± 0.008 days (1σ formal uncertainties), with nearly sinusoidal shape and peak-to-peak flux variation of 3%. This is consistent at part-per-thousand precision with the P = 15.785 90 ± 0.00005 day sidereal period of Dysnomia's orbit around Eris, strengthening the recent detection of synchronous rotation of Eris by Szakáts et al. with independent data. Photometry from Gaia are consistent with the same light curve. We detect a slope of 0.05 ± 0.01 mag per degree of Eris's brightness with respect to illumination phase averaged across g, V, and r bands, intermediate between Pluto's and Charon's values. Variations of 0.3 mag are detected in Dysnomia's brightness, plausibly consistent with a double-peaked light curve at the synchronous period. The synchronous rotation of Eris is consistent with simple tidal models initiated with a giant-impact origin of the binary, but is difficult to reconcile with gravitational capture of Dysnomia by Eris. The high albedo contrast between Eris and Dysnomia remains unexplained in the giant-impact scenario

Ultracool dwarfs candidates based on 6 yr of the Dark Energy Survey data

We present a sample of 19 583 ultracool dwarf candidates brighter than z ≤23 selected from the Dark Energy Survey DR2 coadd data matched to VHS DR6, VIKING DR5, and AllWISE covering ∼ 480 deg2. The ultracool candidates were first pre-selected based on their (i–z), (z–Y), and (Y–J) colours. They were further classified using a method that compares their optical, near-infrared, and mid-infrared colours against templates of M, L, and T dwarfs. 14 099 objects are presented as new L and T candidates and the remaining objects are from the literature, including 5342 candidates from our previous work. Using this new and deeper sample of ultracool dwarf candidates we also present: 20 new candidate members to nearby young moving groups and associations, variable candidate sources and four new wide binary systems composed of two ultracool dwarfs. Finally, we also show the spectra of 12 new ultracool dwarfs discovered by our group and presented here for the first time. These spectroscopically confirmed objects are a sanity check of our selection of ultracool dwarfs and photometric classification method

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 results: the effect of intracluster light on photometric redshifts for weak gravitational lensing

We study the effect of diffuse intracluster light on the critical surface mass density estimated from photometric redshifts of lensing source galaxies, and the resulting bias in a weak lensing measurement of galaxy cluster mass. Under conservative assumptions, we find the bias to be negligible for imaging surveys like the Dark Energy Survey with a recommended scale cut of ≥200kpc distance from cluster centres. For significantly deeper lensing source galaxy catalogues from present and future surveys like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope program, more conservative scale and source magnitude cuts or a correction of the effect may be necessary to achieve percent level lensing measurement accuracy, especially at the massive end of the cluster population