An efficient semiparametric maxima estimator of the extremal index

The extremal index $\theta$, a measure of the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary process, plays an important role in extreme value analyses. We estimate $\theta$ semiparametrically, using the relationship between the distribution of block maxima and the marginal distribution of a process to define a semiparametric model. We show that these semiparametric estimators are simpler and substantially more efficient than their parametric counterparts. We seek to improve efficiency further using maxima over sliding blocks. A simulation study shows that the semiparametric estimators are competitive with the leading estimators. An application to sea-surge heights combines inferences about $\theta$ with a standard extreme value analysis of block maxima to estimate marginal quantiles.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures. Minor edits made to version 1 prior to journal publication. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10687-015-0221-

Do acute elevations of serum creatinine in primary care engender an increased mortality risk?

Background: The significant impact Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) has on patient morbidity and mortality emphasizes the need for early recognition and effective treatment. AKI presenting to or occurring during hospitalisation has been widely studied but little is known about the incidence and outcomes of patients experiencing acute elevations in serum creatinine in the primary care setting where people are not subsequently admitted to hospital. The aim of this study was to define this incidence and explore its impact on mortality. Methods: The study cohort was identified by using hospital data bases over a six month period. Inclusion criteria: People with a serum creatinine request during the study period, 18 or over and not on renal replacement therapy. The patients were stratified by a rise in serum creatinine corresponding to the Acute Kidney Injury Network (AKIN) criteria for comparison purposes. Descriptive and survival data were then analysed. Ethical approval was granted from National Research Ethics Service (NRES) Committee South East Coast and from the National Information Governance Board. Results: The total study population was 61,432. 57,300 subjects with ‘no AKI’, mean age 64.The number (mean age) of acute serum creatinine rises overall were, ‘AKI 1’ 3,798 (72), ‘AKI 2’ 232 (73), and ‘AKI 3’ 102 (68) which equates to an overall incidence of 14,192 pmp/year (adult). Unadjusted 30 day survival was 99.9% in subjects with ‘no AKI’, compared to 98.6%, 90.1% and 82.3% in those with ‘AKI 1’, ‘AKI 2’ and ‘AKI 3’ respectively. After multivariable analysis adjusting for age, gender, baseline kidney function and co-morbidity the odds ratio of 30 day mortality was 5.3 (95% CI 3.6, 7.7), 36.8 (95% CI 21.6, 62.7) and 123 (95% CI 64.8, 235) respectively, compared to those without acute serum creatinine rises as defined. Conclusions: People who develop acute elevations of serum creatinine in primary care without being admitted to hospital have significantly worse outcomes than those with stable kidney function

Soil health metrics reflect yields in long‑term cropping system experiments

Soil health metrics with strong links to ecological function and agricultural productivity are needed to ensure that future management of agricultural systems meets sustainability goals. While ecological metrics and crop yields are often considered separately from one another, our work sought to assess the links between the two in an agricultural context where productivity is a key consideration. Here, we investigated the value of soil health tests in terms of their relevance to agricultural management practices and crop yields at contrasting long term cropping systems experiments. One site was on a sandy loam Leptic Podzol and the other on a sandy clay loam Endostagnic Luvisol. Furthermore, the experiments had different management systems. One contained legume-supported rotations with different grass-clover ley durations and organic amendment usage, while the other compared a range of nutrient input options through fertiliser and organic amendments on the same rotation without ley periods. Metrics included field tests (earthworm counts and visual evaluation of soil structure scores) with laboratory analysis of soil structure, chemistry and biology. This analysis included bulk density, macroporosity, pH, available phosphorus, exchangeable potassium, soil organic matter and potentially mineralizable nitrogen. Using a novel combination of long-term experiments, management systems and distinctive soil types, we demonstrated that as well as providing nutrients, agricultural management which resulted in better soil organic matter, pH, potassium and bulk density was correlated with higher crop yields. The importance of ley duration and potentially mineralizable nitrogen to yield in legume-supported systems showed the impact of agricultural management on soil biology. In systems with applications of synthetic fertiliser, earthworm counts and visual evaluation of soil structure scores were correlated with higher yields. We concluded that agricultural management altered yields not just through direct supply of nutrients to crops, but also through the changes in soil health measured by simple metrics

CRISPR-Cas9 correction of OPA1 c.1334G>A: p.R445H restores mitochondrial homeostasis in dominant optic atrophy patient-derived iPSCs.

Autosomal dominant optic atrophy (DOA) is the most common inherited optic neuropathy in the United Kingdom. DOA has an insidious onset in early childhood, typically presenting with bilateral, central visual loss caused by the preferential loss of retinal ganglion cells. 60%-70% of genetically confirmed DOA cases are associated with variants in OPA1, a ubiquitously expressed GTPase that regulates mitochondrial homeostasis through coordination of inner membrane fusion, maintenance of cristae structure, and regulation of bioenergetic output. Whether genetic correction of OPA1 pathogenic variants can alleviate disease-associated phenotypes remains unknown. Here, we demonstrate generation of patient-derived OPA1 c.1334G>A: p.R445H mutant induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs), followed by correction of OPA1 through CRISPR-Cas9-guided homology-directed repair (HDR) and evaluate the effect of OPA1 correction on mitochondrial homeostasis. CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing demonstrated an efficient method of OPA1 correction, with successful gene correction in 57% of isolated iPSCs. Correction of OPA1 restored mitochondrial homeostasis, re-establishing the mitochondrial network and basal respiration and ATP production levels. In addition, correction of OPA1 re-established the levels of wild-type (WT) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and reduced susceptibility to apoptotic stimuli. These data demonstrate that nuclear gene correction can restore mitochondrial homeostasis and improve mtDNA integrity in DOA patient-derived cells carrying an OPA1 variant

What is the real impact of acute kidney injury?

Background: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common clinical problem. Studies have documented the incidence of AKI in a variety of populations but to date we do not believe the real incidence of AKI has been accurately documented in a district general hospital setting. The aim here was to describe the detected incidence of AKI in a typical general hospital setting in an unselected population, and describe associated short and long-term outcomes. Methods: A retrospective observational database study from secondary care in East Kent (adult catchment population of 582,300). All adult patients (18 years or over) admitted between 1st February 2009 and 31st July 2009, were included. Patients receiving chronic renal replacement therapy (RRT), maternity and day case admissions were excluded. AKI was defined by the acute kidney injury network (AKIN) criteria. A time dependent risk analysis with logistic regression and Cox regression was used for the analysis of in-hospital mortality and survival. Results: The incidence of AKI in the 6 month period was 15,325 pmp/yr (adults) (69% AKIN1, 18% AKIN2 and 13% AKIN3). In-hospital mortality, length of stay and ITU utilisation all increased with severity of AKI. Patients with AKI had an increase in care on discharge and an increase in hospital readmission within 30 days. Conclusions: This data comes closer to the real incidence and outcomes of AKI managed in-hospital than any study published in the literature to date. Fifteen percent of all admissions sustained an episode of AKI with increased subsequent short and long term morbidity and mortality, even in those with AKIN1. This confers an increased burden and cost to the healthcare economy, which can now be quantified. These results will furnish a baseline for quality improvement projects aimed at early identification, improved management, and where possible prevention, of AKI

Formative peer assessment in a CSCL environment

In this case study our aim was to gain more insight in the possibilities of qualitative formative peer assessment in a computer supported collaborative learning (CSCL) environment. An approach was chosen in which peer assessment was operationalised in assessment assignments and assessment tools that were embedded in the course material. The course concerned a higher education case-based virtual seminar, in which students were asked to conduct research and write a report in small multidisciplinary teams. The assessment assignments contained the discussion of assessment criteria, the assessment of a group report of a fellow group, and writing an assessment report. A list of feedback rules was one of the assessment tools. A qualitative oriented study was conducted, focussing on the attitude of students towards peer assessment and practical use of peer assessment assignments and tools. Results showed that students’ attitude towards peer assessment was positive and that assessment assignments had added value. However, not all students fulfilled all assessment assignments. Recommendations for implementation of peer assessment in CSCL environments as well as suggestions for future research are discussed

Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection in asymptomatic rural Gabonese populations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria may be perennial or epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, and its transmission may be stable or unstable, depending on the region. The prevalence of asymptomatic <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>carriage is poorly documented in Gabon. A large survey of <it>P. falciparum </it>infection was conducted in asymptomatic individuals living in rural Gabon.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two hundred and twenty-two villages were randomly selected in the nine administrative regions. With the participants' informed consent, blood samples were collected for thick and thin blood film examination after 20% Giemsa staining. Prevalence rates were calculated per village, per region and per ecosystem, and nationwide. Demographic risk factors were identified with STATA software version 9.0. Significance was assumed at p < 0.05.</p> <p>Results and discussion</p> <p>The prevalence of <it>P. falciparum </it>in adults was 6.2% (269/4342) nationwide, with a maximum of 37.2% in one village; a linear decrease was observed with increasing age (p = 0.045). Only 5% of the 399 children from forest areas tested positive. The prevalence was significantly higher in forest areas (7%) than in savannah (4%) and lakeland (2.5%). Within the forest region, the prevalence was significantly higher in forest grassland (10.9%) than in the mountain forest (3.5%), interior forest (6.8%) and north-eastern forest (4.5%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>carriage remains high among adults in rural Gabon. Control measures must be adapted to the region and ecosystem. Routine treatment of asymptomatic individuals should be considered.</p