Signs of deterioration in infants discharged home following congenital heart surgery in the first year of life: a qualitative study

AIMS: To describe the ways in which parents recognise and make decisions about their child's symptoms following discharge home after congenital heart interventions in the first year of life and their experiences of seeking help. METHODS: This was a qualitative study involving semistructured interviews with parents. Twenty-one parents were recruited to the study. Parents all had a child who had congenital heart surgery in their first year of life between September 2009 and October 2013 at one of three UK cardiac centres; the children had either died or were readmitted as an emergency following initial discharge. RESULTS: Some parents were unable to identify any early warning signs. Others described symptoms of deterioration including changes in feeding and appearance, respiratory distress and subtle behavioural changes that may not be routinely highlighted to parents at discharge. Several barriers to accessing prompt medical assistance were identified including parents feeling that their concerns were not taken seriously, long wait times and lack of protocols at A&E. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights behavioural symptoms as being a potentially underemphasised sign of deterioration and identifies a number of barriers to parents accessing support when they are concerned. It is important that parents are encouraged to seek advice at the earliest opportunity and that those health professionals at the front line have access to the information they need in order to respond in an appropriate and timely way. A role for home monitoring was also noted as potentially useful in identifying at risk children who appear clinically well

Combining qualitative and quantitative operational research methods to inform quality improvement in pathways that span multiple settings

BACKGROUND: Improving integration and continuity of care across sectors within resource constraints is a priority in many health systems. Qualitative operational research methods of problem structuring have been used to address quality improvement in services involving multiple sectors but not in combination with quantitative operational research methods that enable targeting of interventions according to patient risk. We aimed to combine these methods to augment and inform an improvement initiative concerning infants with congenital heart disease (CHD) whose complex care pathway spans multiple sectors. METHODS: Soft systems methodology was used to consider systematically changes to services from the perspectives of community, primary, secondary and tertiary care professionals and a patient group, incorporating relevant evidence. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis of national audit datasets was conducted along with data visualisation designed to inform service improvement within the context of limited resources. RESULTS: A 'Rich Picture' was developed capturing the main features of services for infants with CHD pertinent to service improvement. This was used, along with a graphical summary of the CART analysis, to guide discussions about targeting interventions at specific patient risk groups. Agreement was reached across representatives of relevant health professions and patients on a coherent set of targeted recommendations for quality improvement. These fed into national decisions about service provision and commissioning. CONCLUSIONS: When tackling complex problems in service provision across multiple settings, it is important to acknowledge and work with multiple perspectives systematically and to consider targeting service improvements in response to confined resources. Our research demonstrates that applying a combination of qualitative and quantitative operational research methods is one approach to doing so that warrants further consideration

Ethnic-specific mortality of infants undergoing congenital heart surgery in England and Wales

Purpose: To investigate ethnic differences in mortality for infants with congenital heart defects (CHDs) undergoing cardiac surgery or interventional catheterisation. Design: Observational study of survival to age 1 year using linked records from routine national paediatric cardiac surgery and intensive care audits. Mortality risk was investigated using multivariable Poisson models with multiple imputation. Predictors included sex, ethnicity, preterm birth, deprivation, comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, age and weight at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis. Setting: All paediatric cardiac surgery centres in England and Wales. Patients: 5350 infants with CHDs born from 2006 to 2009. Main outcome measure: Survival at age 1 year. Results: Mortality was 83.9 (95% CI 76.3 to 92.1) per 1000 infants, with variation by ethnic group. Compared with those of white ethnicity, infants in British Asian (Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi) and ‘all other’ (Chinese, mixed and other) categories experienced significantly higher mortality by age 1 year (relative risk [RR] 1.52[95% CI 1.19 to 1.95]; 1.62[95% CI 1.20 to 2.20], respectively), specifically during index hospital admission (RR 1.55 [95% CI 1.07 to 2.26]; 1.64 [95% CI 1.05 to 2.57], respectively). Further predictors of mortality included non-cardiac comorbidities, prenatal diagnosis, older age at surgery, preprocedure deterioration and cardiac diagnosis. British Asian infants had higher mortality risk during elective hospital readmission (RR 1.86 [95% CI 1.02 to 3.39]). Conclusions: Infants of British Asian and ‘all other’ non-white ethnicity experienced higher postoperative mortality risk, which was only partly explained by socioeconomic deprivation and access to care. Further investigation of case-mix and timing of risk may provide important insights into potential mechanisms underlying ethnic disparities

Influence of Novel Norovirus GII.4 Variants on Gastroenteritis Outbreak Dynamics in Alberta and the Northern Territories, Canada between 2000 and 2008

BACKGROUND: Norovirus GII.4 is the predominant genotype circulating worldwide over the last decade causing 80% of all norovirus outbreaks with new GII.4 variants reported in parallel with periodic epidemic waves of norovirus outbreaks. The circulating new GII.4 variants and the epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in Alberta, Canada have not been described. Our hypothesis is that the periodic epidemic norovirus outbreak activity in Alberta was driven by new GII.4 variants evolving by genetic drift. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Alberta Provincial Public Health Laboratory performed norovirus testing using RT-PCR for suspected norovirus outbreaks in the province and the northern Territories between 2000 and 2008. At least one norovirus strain from 707 out of 1,057 (66.9%) confirmed norovirus outbreaks were successfully sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using BioNumerics and 617 (91.1%) outbreaks were characterized as caused by GII.4 with 598 assigned as novel variants including: GII.4-1996, GII.4-2002, GII.4-2004, GII.4-2006a, GII.4-2006b, GII.4-2008a and GII.4-2008b. Defining July to June of the following year as the yearly observation period, there was clear biannual pattern of low and high outbreak activity in Alberta. Within this biannual pattern, high outbreak activity followed the emergence of novel GII.4 variants. The two variants that emerged in 2006 had wider geographic distribution and resulted in higher outbreak activity compared to other variants. The outbreak settings were analyzed. Community-based group residence was the most common for both GII.4 variants and non-GII.4 variants. GII.4 variants were more commonly associated with outbreaks in acute care hospitals while outbreaks associated non-GII.4 variants were more commonly seen in school and community social events settings (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The emergence of new norovirus GII.4 variants resulted in an increased norovirus outbreak activity in the following season in a unique biannual pattern in Alberta over an eight year period. The association between antigenic drift of GII.4 strains and epidemic norovirus outbreak activity could be due to changes in host immunity, viral receptor binding efficiency or virulence factors in the new variants. Early detection of novel GII.4 variants provides vital information that could be used to forecast the norovirus outbreak burden, enhance public health preparedness and allocate appropriate resources for outbreak management

Online Social Networking Technologies, HIV Knowledge, and Sexual Risk and Testing Behaviors Among Homeless Youth

This study evaluates associations between online social networking and sexual health behaviors among homeless youth in Los Angeles. We analyzed survey data from 201 homeless youth accessing services at a Los Angeles agency. Multivariate (regression and logistic) models assessed whether use of (and topics discussed on) online social networking technologies affect HIV knowledge, sexual risk behaviors, and testing for sexually transmitted infections (STIs). One set of results suggests that using online social networks for partner seeking (compared to not using the networks for seeking partners) is associated with increased sexual risk behaviors. Supporting data suggest that (1) using online social networks to talk about safe sex is associated with an increased likelihood of having met a recent sex partner online, and (2) having online sex partners and talking to friends on online social networks about drugs and partying is associated with increased exchange sex. However, results also suggest that online social network usage is associated with increased knowledge and HIV/STI prevention among homeless youth: (1) using online social networks to talk about love and safe sex is associated with increased knowledge about HIV, (2) using the networks to talk about love is associated with decreased exchange sex, and (3) merely being a member of an online social network is associated with increased likelihood of having previously tested for STIs. Taken together, this study suggests that online social networking and the topics discussed on these networks can potentially increase and decrease sexual risk behaviors depending on how the networks are used. Developing sexual health services and interventions on online social networks could reduce sexual risk behaviors

Population Dynamics Constrain the Cooperative Evolution of Cross-Feeding

Cross-feeding is the exchange of nutrients among species of microbes. It has two potential evolutionary origins, one as an exchange of metabolic wastes or byproducts among species, the other as a form of cooperation known as reciprocal altruism. This paper explores the conditions favoring the origin of cooperative cross-feeding between two species. There is an extensive literature on the evolution of cooperation, and some of the requirements for the evolution of cooperative cross-feeding follow from this prior work–specifically the requirement that interactions be limited to small groups of individuals, such as colonies in a spatially structured environment. Evolution of cooperative cross-feeding by a species also requires that cross-feeding from the partner species already exists, so that the cooperating mutant will automatically be reciprocated for its actions. Beyond these considerations, some unintuitive dynamical constraints apply. In particular, the benefit of cooperative cross-feeding applies only in the range of intermediate cell densities. At low density, resource concentrations are too low to offset the cost of cooperation. At high density, resources shared by both species become limiting, and the two species become competitors. These considerations suggest that the evolution of cooperative cross-feeding in nature may be more challenging than for other types of cooperation. However, the principles identified here may enable the experimental evolution of cross-feeding, as born out by a recent study

Epidemiological and virological investigation of a Norovirus outbreak in a resort in Puglia, Italy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This paper describes the third large outbreak of Norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis reported in the Southern Italy region of Puglia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A matched case control study was conducted, on 19 July 2005, for investigating risk factors, using a structured questionnaire on food consumption. A multivariate analysis was conducted to estimate the adjusted Odds Ratios. Laboratory and environmental investigation were also performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>On the day of the study 41 cases were identified and 41 controls were enrolled. Controls were matched for age and gender. The mean age of the cases was 26 years old, and 58% were female. The clinical pattern of the disease was characterised by the presence of diarrhoea (95%), vomiting (70%), abdominal pain (51%) and fever (32%). Of the 41 cases included in the study, the majority (65%) were residents of Northern Italian regions. No food samples were available for testing. The matched univariate analysis revealed that cases were more likely to have consumed raw mussels, eggs or ice cubes made of tap water than controls. In the multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis, having eaten raw mussels or ice became more strongly associated with illness.</p> <p>All of the 20 faecal samples collected were tested for NoVs. Eighteen stools (90% of total examined) were positive by RT-PCR, and sequence analysis performed onto 3 samples confirmed the presence of a GGII NoV. No test specific for NoV was performed on water or food samples.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The most likely hypothesis supported by the findings of the epidemiological investigation was that illness was associated with raw mussels and ice, made with tap water. These hypothesis could not be confirmed by specific microbiologic testing for NoV in food or ice. The lack of clear knowledge of NoV as a major causative agent of epidemic outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Italy is due to the absence of timely reporting of the cases to the local public health offices and the uncommon practice of saving clinical samples for virological analysis after bacteriological testing.</p

Exploring cancer register data to find risk factors for recurrence of breast cancer – application of Canonical Correlation Analysis

BACKGROUND: A common approach in exploring register data is to find relationships between outcomes and predictors by using multiple regression analysis (MRA). If there is more than one outcome variable, the analysis must then be repeated, and the results combined in some arbitrary fashion. In contrast, Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) has the ability to analyze multiple outcomes at the same time. One essential outcome after breast cancer treatment is recurrence of the disease. It is important to understand the relationship between different predictors and recurrence, including the time interval until recurrence. This study describes the application of CCA to find important predictors for two different outcomes for breast cancer patients, loco-regional recurrence and occurrence of distant metastasis and to decrease the number of variables in the sets of predictors and outcomes without decreasing the predictive strength of the model. METHODS: Data for 637 malignant breast cancer patients admitted in the south-east region of Sweden were analyzed. By using CCA and looking at the structure coefficients (loadings), relationships between tumor specifications and the two outcomes during different time intervals were analyzed and a correlation model was built. RESULTS: The analysis successfully detected known predictors for breast cancer recurrence during the first two years and distant metastasis 2–4 years after diagnosis. Nottingham Histologic Grading (NHG) was the most important predictor, while age of the patient at the time of diagnosis was not an important predictor. CONCLUSION: In cancer registers with high dimensionality, CCA can be used for identifying the importance of risk factors for breast cancer recurrence. This technique can result in a model ready for further processing by data mining methods through reducing the number of variables to important ones