A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Identification of novel subgroup a variants with enhanced receptor binding and replicative capacity in primary isolates of anaemogenic strains of feline leukaemia virus

<b>BACKGROUND:</b> The development of anaemia in feline leukaemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats is associated with the emergence of a novel viral subgroup, FeLV-C. FeLV-C arises from the subgroup that is transmitted, FeLV-A, through alterations in the amino acid sequence of the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the envelope glycoprotein that result in a shift in the receptor usage and the cell tropism of the virus. The factors that influence the transition from subgroup A to subgroup C remain unclear, one possibility is that a selective pressure in the host drives the acquisition of mutations in the RBD, creating A/C intermediates with enhanced abilities to interact with the FeLV-C receptor, FLVCR. In order to understand further the emergence of FeLV-C in the infected cat, we examined primary isolates of FeLV-C for evidence of FeLV-A variants that bore mutations consistent with a gradual evolution from FeLV-A to FeLV-C.<p></p> <b>RESULTS:</b> Within each isolate of FeLV-C, we identified variants that were ostensibly subgroup A by nucleic acid sequence comparisons, but which bore mutations in the RBD. One such mutation, N91D, was present in multiple isolates and when engineered into a molecular clone of the prototypic FeLV-A (Glasgow-1), enhanced replication was noted in feline cells. Expression of the N91D Env on murine leukaemia virus (MLV) pseudotypes enhanced viral entry mediated by the FeLV-A receptor THTR1 while soluble FeLV-A Env bearing the N91D mutation bound more efficiently to mouse or guinea pig cells bearing the FeLV-A and -C receptors. Long-term in vitro culture of variants bearing the N91D substitution in the presence of anti-FeLV gp70 antibodies did not result in the emergence of FeLV-C variants, suggesting that additional selective pressures in the infected cat may drive the subsequent evolution from subgroup A to subgroup C.<p></p> <b>CONCLUSIONS:</b> Our data support a model in which variants of FeLV-A, bearing subtle differences in the RBD of Env, may be predisposed towards enhanced replication in vivo and subsequent conversion to FeLV-C. The selection pressures in vivo that drive the emergence of FeLV-C in a proportion of infected cats remain to be established

An eScience-Bayes strategy for analyzing omics data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The omics fields promise to revolutionize our understanding of biology and biomedicine. However, their potential is compromised by the challenge to analyze the huge datasets produced. Analysis of omics data is plagued by the curse of dimensionality, resulting in imprecise estimates of model parameters and performance. Moreover, the integration of omics data with other data sources is difficult to shoehorn into classical statistical models. This has resulted in <it>ad hoc </it>approaches to address specific problems.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We present a general approach to omics data analysis that alleviates these problems. By combining eScience and Bayesian methods, we retrieve scientific information and data from multiple sources and coherently incorporate them into large models. These models improve the accuracy of predictions and offer new insights into the underlying mechanisms. This "eScience-Bayes" approach is demonstrated in two proof-of-principle applications, one for breast cancer prognosis prediction from transcriptomic data and one for protein-protein interaction studies based on proteomic data.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Bayesian statistics provide the flexibility to tailor statistical models to the complex data structures in omics biology as well as permitting coherent integration of multiple data sources. However, Bayesian methods are in general computationally demanding and require specification of possibly thousands of prior distributions. eScience can help us overcome these difficulties. The eScience-Bayes thus approach permits us to fully leverage on the advantages of Bayesian methods, resulting in models with improved predictive performance that gives more information about the underlying biological system.</p

Cyclical changes in seroprevalence of leptospirosis in California sea lions: endemic and epidemic disease in one host species?

BackgroundLeptospirosis is a zoonotic disease infecting a broad range of mammalian hosts, and is re-emerging globally. California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) have experienced recurrent outbreaks of leptospirosis since 1970, but it is unknown whether the pathogen persists in the sea lion population or is introduced repeatedly from external reservoirs.MethodsWe analyzed serum samples collected over an 11-year period from 1344 California sea lions that stranded alive on the California coast, using the microscopic agglutination test (MAT) for antibodies to Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona. We evaluated seroprevalence among yearlings as a measure of incidence in the population, and characterized antibody persistence times based on temporal changes in the distribution of titer scores. We conducted multinomial logistic regression to determine individual risk factors for seropositivity with high and low titers.ResultsThe serosurvey revealed cyclical patterns in seroprevalence to L. interrogans serovar Pomona, with 4-5 year periodicity and peak seroprevalence above 50%. Seroprevalence in yearling sea lions was an accurate index of exposure among all age classses, and indicated on-going exposure to leptospires in non-outbreak years. Analysis of titer decay rates showed that some individuals probably maintain high titers for more than a year following exposure.ConclusionThis study presents results of an unprecedented long-term serosurveillance program in marine mammals. Our results suggest that leptospirosis is endemic in California sea lions, but also causes periodic epidemics of acute disease. The findings call into question the classical dichotomy between maintenance hosts of leptospirosis, which experience chronic but largely asymptomatic infections, and accidental hosts, which suffer acute illness or death as a result of disease spillover from reservoir species

Altitudinal variation in soil organic carbon stock in coniferous subtropical and broadleaf temperate forests in Garhwal Himalaya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Himalayan zones, with dense forest vegetation, cover a fifth part of India and store a third part of the country reserves of soil organic carbon (SOC). However, the details of altitudinal distribution of these carbon stocks, which are vulnerable to forest management and climate change impacts, are not well known.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This article reports the results of measuring the stocks of SOC along altitudinal gradients. The study was carried out in the coniferous subtropical and broadleaf temperate forests of Garhwal Himalaya. The stocks of SOC were found to be decreasing with altitude: from 185.6 to 160.8 t C ha^-1and from 141.6 to 124.8 t C ha^-1in temperature (<it>Quercus leucotrichophora</it>) and subtropical (<it>Pinus roxburghii</it>) forests, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results of this study lead to conclusion that the ability of soil to stabilize soil organic matter depends negatively on altitude and call for comprehensive theoretical explanation</p

Mother-male bond, but not paternity, influences male-infant affiliation in wild crested macaques

In promiscuous primates, interactions between adult males and infants have rarely been investigated. However, recent evidence suggests that male affiliation towards infants has an influence on several aspects of the infants’ life. Furthermore, affiliations may be associated with male reproductive strategy. In this study, we examined which social factors influenced male-infant affiliation initiated by either male or infant, in wild crested macaques (Macaca nigra). We combined behavioral data and genetic paternity analysis from 30 infants living in three wild groups in Tangkoko Reserve, Indonesia. Our results indicate that adult males and infants do not interact at random, but rather form preferential associations. The social factors with the highest influence on infant-initiated interactions were male rank and male association with the infant’s mother. While infants initiated affiliations with males more often in the absence of their mothers, adult males initiated more affiliations with infants when their mothers were present. Furthermore, males initiated affiliations more often when they were in the same group at the time the infant was conceived, when they held a high dominance rank or when they had a close relationship with the mother. Interestingly, paternity did not affect male-infant affiliation despite being highly skewed in this species. Overall, our results suggest that adult males potentially associate with an infant to secure future mating with the mother. Infants are more likely to associate with a male to receive better support, suggesting a strategy to increase the chance of infant survival in a primate society with high infant mortality

Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference