Improved curve fits to summary survival data: application to economic evaluation of health technologies

addresses: Peninsula College of Medicine and Dentistry, Veysey Building, Salmon Pool Lane, Exeter, EX2 4SG, UK. [email protected]: PMCID: PMC3198983types: Journal Article; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't© 2011 Hoyle and Henley; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Mean costs and quality-adjusted-life-years are central to the cost-effectiveness of health technologies. They are often calculated from time to event curves such as for overall survival and progression-free survival. Ideally, estimates should be obtained from fitting an appropriate parametric model to individual patient data. However, such data are usually not available to independent researchers. Instead, it is common to fit curves to summary Kaplan-Meier graphs, either by regression or by least squares. Here, a more accurate method of fitting survival curves to summary survival data is described

Beyond ‘crude pragmatism’ in sports coaching:Insights from C.S. Peirce, William James and John Dewey: a commentary

We agree that there is a lack of clarity in the sports coaching literature about philosophical pragmatism, but this is inevitable when there is a lack of consensus in the literature of philosophical pragmatism itself. In the writing of classical pragmatists there are a “plurality of conflicting narratives” (Bernstein, 1995 p.55). For instance, Charles Sanders Peirce acknowledged notable theoretical divergence between his pragmatism and that of William James (Hookway, 2012). In fact, Peirce viewed the availability of nuanced approaches as a mark of the vitality of this school of thought. After all, pragmatists value diversity, they accept that current thinking, hypotheses and practices may require revision – they are flexibly minded. Such revision, however, must be built upon well-reasoned doubt (Hookway, 2012). In other words, a clear argument is necessary if an alternative proposition is to be considered. In this vein, though we have sympathy for the thrust of his argument, and support calls for more “legitimate philosophical thinking” and “empirical philosophical enquiry” (Cushion & Partington, 2016 p.863), our aim in this commentary is to address a lack of clarity and utility in some of Jenkins’ propositions about philosophical pragmatism and sports coaching

Sunitinib and bevacizumab for first-line treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma: a systematic review and indirect comparison of clinical effectiveness

Background: Two new agents have recently been licensed for use in the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in Europe. This paper aims to systematically review the evidence from all available randomised clinical trials of sunitinib and bevacizumab (in combination with interferon-? (IFN-?)) in the treatment of advanced metastatic RCC.Methods: Systematic literature searches were performed in six electronic databases. Bibliographies of included studies were searched for further relevant studies. Individual conference proceedings were searched using their online interfaces. Studies were selected according to the predefined criteria. All randomised clinical trials of sunitinib or bevacizumab in combination with IFN for treating advanced metastatic RCC in accordance with the European licensed indication were included. Study selection, data extraction, validation and quality assessment were performed by two reviewers with disagreements being settled by discussion. The effects of sunitinib and bevacizumab (in combination with IFN-?) on progression-free survival were compared indirectly using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling in Win BUGS, with IFN as a common comparator.Results: Three studies were included. Median progression-free survival was significantly prolonged with both interventions (from approximately 5 months to between 8 and 11 months) compared with IFN. Overall survival was also prolonged, compared with IFN, although the published data are not fully mature. Indirect comparison suggests that sunitinib is superior to bevacizumab plus IFN in terms of progression-free survival (hazard ratios 0.796; 95% CI 0.63–1.0; P=0.0272).Conclusion: There is evidence to suggest that treatment with sunitinib and treatment with bevacizumab plus IFN has clinically relevant and statistically significant advantages over treatment with IFN alone in patients with metastatic RCC

Etiology of Childhood Bacteremia and Timely Antibiotics Administration in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND: Bacteremia is now an uncommon presentation to the children’s emergency department (ED) but is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Its evolving etiology may affect the ability of clinicians to initiate timely, appropriate antimicrobial therapy. METHODS: A retrospective time series analysis of bacteremia was conducted in the Alder Hey Children’s Hospital ED between 2001 and 2011. Data on significant comorbidities, time to empirical therapy, and antibiotic susceptibility were recorded. RESULTS: A total of 575 clinical episodes were identified, and Streptococcus pneumoniae (n = 109), Neisseria meningitidis (n = 96), and Staphylococcus aureus (n = 89) were commonly isolated. The rate of bacteremia was 1.42 per 1000 ED attendances (95% confidence interval: 1.31–1.53). There was an annual reduction of 10.6% (6.6%–14.5%) in vaccine-preventable infections, and an annual increase of 6.7% (1.2%–12.5%) in Gram-negative infections. The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine was associated with a 49% (32%–74%) reduction in pneumococcal bacteremia. The rate of health care–associated bacteremia increased from 0.17 to 0.43 per 1000 ED attendances (P = .002). Susceptibility to empirical antibiotics was reduced (96.3%–82.6%; P < .001). Health care–associated bacteremia was associated with an increased length of stay of 3.9 days (95% confidence interval: 2.3–5.8). Median time to antibiotics was 184 minutes (interquartile range: 63–331) and 57 (interquartile range: 27–97) minutes longer in Gram-negative bacteremia than in vaccine-preventable bacteremia. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in the etiology of pediatric bacteremia have implications for prompt, appropriate empirical treatment. Increasingly, pediatric bacteremia in the ED is health care associated, which increases length of inpatient stay. Prompt, effective antimicrobial administration requires new tools to improve recognition, in addition to continued etiological surveillance

Spectral quantification of nonlinear behaviour of the nearshore seabed and correlations with potential forcings at Duck, N.C., U.S.A

Local bathymetric quasi-periodic patterns of oscillation are identified from monthly profile surveys taken at two shore-perpendicular transects at the USACE field research facility in Duck, North Carolina, USA, spanning 24.5 years and covering the swash and surf zones. The chosen transects are the two furthest (north and south) from the pier located at the study site. Research at Duck has traditionally focused on one or more of these transects as the effects of the pier are least at these locations. The patterns are identified using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Possible correlations with potential forcing mechanisms are discussed by 1) doing an SSA with same parameter settings to independently identify the quasi-periodic cycles embedded within three potentially linked sequences: monthly wave heights (MWH), monthly mean water levels (MWL) and the large scale atmospheric index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 2) comparing the patterns within MWH, MWL and NAO to the local bathymetric patterns. The results agree well with previous patterns identified using wavelets and confirm the highly nonstationary behaviour of beach levels at Duck; the discussion of potential correlations with hydrodynamic and atmospheric phenomena is a new contribution. The study is then extended to all measured bathymetric profiles, covering an area of 1100m (alongshore) by 440m (cross-shore), to 1) analyse linear correlations between the bathymetry and the potential forcings using multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MEOF) and linear correlation analysis and 2) identify which collective quasi-periodic bathymetric patterns are correlated with those within MWH, MWL or NAO, based on a (nonlinear) multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA). (...continued in submitted paper)Comment: 50 pages, 3 tables, 8 figure

Abrogation of Stem Loop Binding Protein (Slbp) function leads to a failure of cells to transition from proliferation to differentiation, retinal coloboma and midline axon guidance deficits

Through forward genetic screening for mutations affecting visual system development, we identified prominent coloboma and cell-autonomous retinal neuron differentiation, lamination and retinal axon projection defects in eisspalte (ele) mutant zebrafish. Additional axonal deficits were present, most notably at midline axon commissures. Genetic mapping and cloning of the ele mutation showed that the affected gene is slbp, which encodes a conserved RNA stem-loop binding protein involved in replication dependent histone mRNA metabolism. Cells throughout the central nervous system remained in the cell cycle in ele mutant embryos at stages when, and locations where, post-mitotic cells have differentiated in wild-type siblings. Indeed, RNAseq analysis showed down-regulation of many genes associated with neuronal differentiation. This was coincident with changes in the levels and spatial localisation of expression of various genes implicated, for instance, in axon guidance, that likely underlie specific ele phenotypes. These results suggest that many of the cell and tissue specific phenotypes in ele mutant embryos are secondary to altered expression of modules of developmental regulatory genes that characterise, or promote transitions in, cell state and require the correct function of Slbp-dependent histone and chromatin regulatory genes

Systemic Inhibition of NF-κB Activation Protects from Silicosis

Background: Silicosis is a complex lung disease for which no successful treatment is available and therefore lung transplantation is a potential alternative. Tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) plays a central role in the pathogenesis of silicosis. TNFα signaling is mediated by the transcription factor, Nuclear Factor (NF)-κB, which regulates genes controlling several physiological processes including the innate immune responses, cell death, and inflammation. Therefore, inhibition of NF-κB activation represents a potential therapeutic strategy for silicosis. Methods/Findings: In the present work we evaluated the lung transplant database (May 1986-July 2007) at the University of Pittsburgh to study the efficacy of lung transplantation in patients with silicosis (n = 11). We contrasted the overall survival and rate of graft rejection in these patients to that of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF, n = 79) that was selected as a control group because survival benefit of lung transplantation has been identified for these patients. At the time of lung transplantation, we found the lungs of silica-exposed subjects to contain multiple foci of inflammatory cells and silicotic nodules with proximal TNFα expressing macrophage and NF-κB activation in epithelial cells. Patients with silicosis had poor survival (median survival 2.4 yr; confidence interval (CI): 0.16-7.88 yr) compared to IPF patients (5.3 yr; CI: 2.8-15 yr; p = 0.07), and experienced early rejection of their lung grafts (0.9 yr; CI: 0.22-0.9 yr) following lung transplantation (2.4 yr; CI:1.5-3.6 yr; p<0.05). Using a mouse experimental model in which the endotracheal instillation of silica reproduces the silica-induced lung injury observed in humans we found that systemic inhibition of NF-κB activation with a pharmacologic inhibitor (BAY 11-7085) of IκBα phosphorylation decreased silica-induced inflammation and collagen deposition. In contrast, transgenic mice expressing a dominant negative IκBα mutant protein under the control of epithelial cell specific promoters demonstrate enhanced apoptosis and collagen deposition in their lungs in response to silica. Conclusions: Although limited by its size, our data support that patients with silicosis appear to have poor outcome following lung transplantation. Experimental data indicate that while the systemic inhibition of NF-κB protects from silica-induced lung injury, epithelial cell specific NF-κB inhibition appears to aggravate the outcome of experimental silicosis. © 2009 Di Giuseppe et al

Puzzle based teaching versus traditional instruction in electrocardiogram interpretation for medical students – a pilot study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most medical professionals are expected to possess basic electrocardiogram (EKG) interpretation skills. But, published data suggests that residents' and physicians' EKG interpretation skills are suboptimal. Learning styles differ among medical students; individualization of teaching methods has been shown to be viable and may result in improved learning. Puzzles have been shown to facilitate learning in a relaxed environment. The objective of this study was to assess efficacy of teaching puzzle in EKG interpretation skills among medical students.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This is a reader blinded crossover trial. Third year medical students from College of Human Medicine, Michigan State University participated in this study. Two groups (n = 9) received two traditional EKG interpretation skills lectures followed by a standardized exam and two extra sessions with the teaching puzzle and a different exam. Two other groups (n = 6) received identical courses and exams with the puzzle session first followed by the traditional teaching. EKG interpretation scores on final test were used as main outcome measure.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average score after only traditional teaching was 4.07 ± 2.08 while after only the puzzle session was 4.04 ± 2.36 (p = 0.97). The average improvement after the traditional session was followed up with a puzzle session was 2.53 ± 1.94 while the average improvement after the puzzle session was followed with the traditional session was 2.08 ± 1.73 (p = 0.67). The final EKG exam score for this cohort (n = 15) was 84.1 compared to 86.6 (p = 0.22) for a comparable sample of medical students (n = 15) at a different campus.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Teaching EKG interpretation with puzzles is comparable to traditional teaching and may be particularly useful for certain subgroups of students. Puzzle session are more interactive and relaxing, and warrant further investigations on larger scale.</p

Explosive Nucleosynthesis: What we learned and what we still do not understand

This review touches on historical aspects, going back to the early days of nuclear astrophysics, initiated by B$^2$FH and Cameron, discusses (i) the required nuclear input from reaction rates and decay properties up to the nuclear equation of state, continues (ii) with the tools to perform nucleosynthesis calculations and (iii) early parametrized nucleosynthesis studies, before (iv) reliable stellar models became available for the late stages of stellar evolution. It passes then through (v) explosive environments from core-collapse supernovae to explosive events in binary systems (including type Ia supernovae and compact binary mergers), and finally (vi) discusses the role of all these nucleosynthesis production sites in the evolution of galaxies. The focus is put on the comparison of early ideas and present, very recent, understanding.Comment: 11 pages, to appear in Springer Proceedings in Physics (Proc. of Intl. Conf. "Nuclei in the Cosmos XV", LNGS Assergi, Italy, June 2018