When Does Reward Maximization Lead to Matching Law?

What kind of strategies subjects follow in various behavioral circumstances has been a central issue in decision making. In particular, which behavioral strategy, maximizing or matching, is more fundamental to animal's decision behavior has been a matter of debate. Here, we prove that any algorithm to achieve the stationary condition for maximizing the average reward should lead to matching when it ignores the dependence of the expected outcome on subject's past choices. We may term this strategy of partial reward maximization “matching strategy”. Then, this strategy is applied to the case where the subject's decision system updates the information for making a decision. Such information includes subject's past actions or sensory stimuli, and the internal storage of this information is often called “state variables”. We demonstrate that the matching strategy provides an easy way to maximize reward when combined with the exploration of the state variables that correctly represent the crucial information for reward maximization. Our results reveal for the first time how a strategy to achieve matching behavior is beneficial to reward maximization, achieving a novel insight into the relationship between maximizing and matching

Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Hidden Markov Models in continuous time

The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to I.Ibragimov and R.Khasminskii, consistency, asymptotic normality and convergence of moments are established for MLE under certain strong ergodicity conditions of the chain.Comment: Warning: due to a flaw in the publishing process, some of the references in the published version of the article are confuse

Building social capital through breastfeeding peer support: Insights from an evaluation of a voluntary breastfeeding peer support service in North-West England

Background: Peer support is reported to be a key method to help build social capital in communities. To date there are no studies that describe how this can be achieved through a breastfeeding peer support service. In this paper we present findings from an evaluation of a voluntary model of breastfeeding peer support in North-West England to describe how the service was operationalized and embedded into the community. This study was undertaken from May, 2012 to May, 2013. Methods: Interviews (group or individual) were held with 87 participants: 24 breastfeeding women, 13 peer supporters and 50 health and community professionals. The data contained within 23 monthly monitoring reports (January, 2011 to February 2013) compiled by the voluntary peer support service were also extracted and analysed. Results: Thematic analysis was undertaken using social capital concepts as a theoretical lens. Key findings were identified to resonate with ’bonding’, ‘bridging’ and ‘linking’ forms of social capital. These insights illuminate how the peer support service facilitates ‘bonds’ with its members, and within and between women who access the service; how the service ‘bridges’ with individuals from different interests and backgrounds, and how ‘links’ were forged with those in authority to gain access and reach to women and to promote a breastfeeding culture. Some of the tensions highlighted within the social capital literature were also identified. Conclusions: Horizontal and vertical relationships forged between the peer support service and community members enabled peer support to be embedded into care pathways, helped to promote positive attitudes to breastfeeding and to disseminate knowledge and maximise reach for breastfeeding support across the community. Further effort to engage with those of different ethnic backgrounds and to resolve tensions between peer supporters and health professionals is warranted

Analysis of factors influencing the ultrasonic fetal weight estimation

Objective: The aim of our study was the evaluation of sonographic fetal weight estimation taking into consideration 9 of the most important factors of influence on the precision of the estimation. Methods: We analyzed 820 singleton pregnancies from 22 to 42 weeks of gestational age. We evaluated 9 different factors that potentially influence the precision of sonographic weight estimation ( time interval between estimation and delivery, experts vs. less experienced investigator, fetal gender, gestational age, fetal weight, maternal BMI, amniotic fluid index, presentation of the fetus, location of the placenta). Finally, we compared the results of the fetal weight estimation of the fetuses with poor scanning conditions to those presenting good scanning conditions. Results: Of the 9 evaluated factors that may influence accuracy of fetal weight estimation, only a short interval between sonographic weight estimation and delivery (0-7 vs. 8-14 days) had a statistically significant impact. Conclusion: Of all known factors of influence, only a time interval of more than 7 days between estimation and delivery had a negative impact on the estimation

Thalidomide-Related Eosinophilic Pneumonia: A case report and brief literature review

Thalidomide has regained value in the multimodality treatment of leprosy, multiple myeloma, prostate, ovarian and renal cancer. Complications related to arterial and venous complications are well described. However, pulmonary complications remain relatively uncommon. The most common pulmonary side-effect reported is non-specific dyspnea. We report a patient with multiple myeloma, who developed an eosinophilic pneumonia, shortly after starting thalidomide. She had complete resolution of her symptoms and pulmonary infiltrates on discontinuation of the drug and treatment with corticosteroids. Physicians should be cognizant of this potential complication in patients receiving thalidomide who present with dyspnea and pulmonary infiltrates

The "Ram Effect": A "Non-Classical" Mechanism for Inducing LH Surges in Sheep

During spring sheep do not normally ovulate but exposure to a ram can induce ovulation. In some ewes an LH surge is induced immediately after exposure to a ram thus raising questions about the control of this precocious LH surge. Our first aim was to determine the plasma concentrations of oestradiol (E2) E2 in anoestrous ewes before and after the "ram effect" in ewes that had a "precocious" LH surge (starting within 6 hours), a "normal" surge (between 6 and 28h) and "late» surge (not detected by 56h). In another experiment we tested if a small increase in circulating E2 could induce an LH surge in anoestrus ewes. The concentration of E2 significantly was not different at the time of ram introduction among ewes with the three types of LH surge. "Precocious" LH surges were not preceded by a large increase in E2 unlike "normal" surges and small elevations of circulating E2 alone were unable to induce LH surges. These results show that the "precocious" LH surge was not the result of E2 positive feedback. Our second aim was to test if noradrenaline (NA) is involved in the LH response to the "ram effect". Using double labelling for Fos and tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) we showed that exposure of anoestrous ewes to a ram induced a higher density of cells positive for both in the A1 nucleus and the Locus Coeruleus complex compared to unstimulated controls. Finally, the administration by retrodialysis into the preoptic area, of NA increased the proportion of ewes with an LH response to ram odor whereas treatment with the α1 antagonist Prazosin decreased the LH pulse frequency and amplitude induced by a sexually active ram. Collectively these results suggest that in anoestrous ewes NA is involved in ram-induced LH secretion as observed in other induced ovulators

Factors affecting the intention of providers to deliver more effective continuing medical education to general practitioners: a pilot study

BACKGROUND: Despite the importance of continuing medical education (CME) for GPs, there has been little research into how providers decide what types of CME to deliver to GPs. This study aimed to identify factors affecting the intention of providers to provide more effective types of CME; and to design a survey instrument which can be used to test the applicability of Triandis' model of social behaviour to the provision of CME to general practitioners. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study on a convenience sample of 11 Australian providers of CME for interviews and a random sample of 25 providers for the pilot test. Open-ended interviews structured on Triandis' theory were performed with key informants who provide CME to GPs. These were used to develop a pilot survey instrument to measure the factors affecting intention, resulting in a revised instrument for use in further research. RESULTS: There was a broad range of factors affecting providers' intention to deliver more effective forms of CME identified, and these were classifiable in a manner which was consistent with Triandis' model. Key factors affecting providers' intention were the attitude toward CME within organisations and the time and extra work involved. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a range of potential factors influencing the intention of providers to provide more effective forms of CME, in all categories of Triandis model. Those interested in increasing the choice of more effective CME activities available to GPs may need to broaden the methods used in working with providers to influence them to use more effective CME techniques. The interview material and questionnaire analysis of the pilot survey support the use of Triandis model. Further research is needed to validate Triandis'model for the intention to deliver more effective forms of CME. Such research will inform future strategies aimed at increasing the amount and choice of effective CME activities available for GPs

The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper adds to evidence that the forward-discount puzzle is at least partly explained as a compensation for taking crash-risk. A number of Central and Eastern European exchange rates are compared. A Hidden Markov Model is used to identify two regimes for most of the exchange rates. These two regimes can be characterised as being either periods of stability or periods of instability. The level of international risk aversion and changes in US interest rates affect the probability of switching from one regime to the other. This model is then used to assess the way that these two factors affect the probability of a currency crisis. While the Czech Republic, Hungary and Bulgaria are very sensitive to international financial conditions, Poland and Romania are relatively immune. JEL classifications: C24, F31, F32; Key words: Exchange rates, uncovered interest parity, foreign exchange risk discount, hidden-Markov model, carry-trad

Behavioural Correlate of Choice Confidence in a Discrete Trial Paradigm

How animals make choices in a changing and often uncertain environment is a central theme in the behavioural sciences. There is a substantial literature on how animals make choices in various experimental paradigms but less is known about the way they assess a choice after it has been made in terms of the expected outcome. Here, we used a discrete trial paradigm to characterise how the reward history shaped the behaviour on a trial by trial basis. Rats initiated each trial which consisted of a choice between two drinking spouts that differed in their probability of delivering a sucrose solution. Critically, sucrose was delivered after a delay from the first lick at the spouts – this allowed us to characterise the behavioural profile during the window between the time of choice and its outcome. Rats' behaviour converged to optimum choice, both during the acquisition phase and after the reversal of contingencies. We monitored the post-choice behaviour at a temporal precision of 1 millisecond; lick-response profiles revealed that rats spent more time at the spout with the higher reward probability and exhibited a sparser lick pattern. This was the case when we exclusively examined the unrewarded trials, where the outcome was identical. The differential licking profiles preceded the differential choice ratios and could thus predict the changes in choice behaviour