Carcass persistence and detectability : reducing the uncertainty surrounding wildlife-vehicle collision surveys

Carcass persistence time and detectability are two main sources of uncertainty on roadkill surveys. In this study, we evaluate the influence of these uncertainties on roadkill surveys and estimates. To estimate carcass persistence time, three observers (including the driver) surveyed 114km by car on a monthly basis for two years, searching for wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC). Each survey consisted of five consecutive days. To estimate carcass detectability, we randomly selected stretches of 500m to be also surveyed on foot by two other observers (total 292 walked stretches, 146 km walked). We expected that body size of the carcass, road type, presence of scavengers and weather conditions to be the main drivers influencing the carcass persistence times, but their relative importance was unknown. We also expected detectability to be highly dependent on body size. Overall, we recorded low median persistence times (one day) and low detectability (<10%) for all vertebrates. The results indicate that body size and landscape cover (as a surrogate of scavengers' presence) are the major drivers of carcass persistence. Detectability was lower for animals with body mass less than 100g when compared to carcass with higher body mass. We estimated that our recorded mortality rates underestimated actual values of mortality by 2±10 fold. Although persistence times were similar to previous studies, the detectability rates here described are very different from previous studies. The results suggest that detectability is the main source of bias across WVC studies. Therefore, more than persistence times, studies should carefully account for differing detectability when comparing WVC studies

High GADA titer increases the risk of insulin requirement in LADA patients: a 7-year follow-up (NIRAD study 7).

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine whether glutamic acid decarboxylase antibody (GADA) titer and other clinical parameters could define the risk of progression to insulin therapy in latent autoimmune diabetes in adults (LADA) patients during a 7-year follow-up. METHODS: This study involved 220 LADA and 430 type 2 diabetes subjects followed up for 7 years from the time of GADA screening to evaluate their progression toward insulin therapy. Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify the markers capable of influencing this progression. RESULTS: During the follow-up, the drop out was 4% in both groups. A total of 119 (56.1%) out of 212 LADA patients required insulin during the 7 years of follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier plots showed that 74/104 (71.1%) of high GADA titer required insulin compared with 45/108 (41.6%) of low GADA titer and with 86/412 (20.9%) of type 2 diabetes (P&lt;0.0001 for both). A BMI of ≤25 kg/m2 and IA-2IC and zinc transporter 8 (ZnT8) positivity were also shown as the markers of faster progression (P&lt;0.0001 for both). The proportion of LADA patients requiring insulin was significantly higher in the group of subjects treated also with sulfonylurea in the first year from diagnosis compared with those treated with diet and/or insulin sensitizers (P&lt;0.001). The multivariate analysis confirmed that the presence of high GADA titer was a significant predictor of insulin requirement (P&lt;0.0001, OR=6.95). CONCLUSIONS: High GADA titer, BMI ≤ 25, ZnT8 and IA-2IC positivity and sulfonylurea treatment, in the first year from diagnosis, significantly increase the progression toward insulin requirement in LADA patients