TIME Impact - a new user-friendly tuberculosis (TB) model to inform TB policy decisions.

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from infectious disease worldwide, predominantly affecting low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where resources are limited. As such, countries need to be able to choose the most efficient interventions for their respective setting. Mathematical models can be valuable tools to inform rational policy decisions and improve resource allocation, but are often unavailable or inaccessible for LMICs, particularly in TB. We developed TIME Impact, a user-friendly TB model that enables local capacity building and strengthens country-specific policy discussions to inform support funding applications at the (sub-)national level (e.g. Ministry of Finance) or to international donors (e.g. the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria).TIME Impact is an epidemiological transmission model nested in TIME, a set of TB modelling tools available for free download within the widely-used Spectrum software. The TIME Impact model reflects key aspects of the natural history of TB, with additional structure for HIV/ART, drug resistance, treatment history and age. TIME Impact enables national TB programmes (NTPs) and other TB policymakers to better understand their own TB epidemic, plan their response, apply for funding and evaluate the implementation of the response.The explicit aim of TIME Impact's user-friendly interface is to enable training of local and international TB experts towards independent use. During application of TIME Impact, close involvement of the NTPs and other local partners also builds critical understanding of the modelling methods, assumptions and limitations inherent to modelling. This is essential to generate broad country-level ownership of the modelling data inputs and results. In turn, it stimulates discussions and a review of the current evidence and assumptions, strengthening the decision-making process in general.TIME Impact has been effectively applied in a variety of settings. In South Africa, it informed the first South African HIV and TB Investment Cases and successfully leveraged additional resources from the National Treasury at a time of austerity. In Ghana, a long-term TIME model-centred interaction with the NTP provided new insights into the local epidemiology and guided resource allocation decisions to improve impact

Does timing of decisions in a mixed duopoly matter?

We determine the endogenous order of moves in a mixed pricesetting duopoly. In contrast to the existing literature on mixed oligopolies we establish the payo equivalence of the games with an exogenously given order of moves if the most plausible equilibrium is realized in the market. Hence, in this case it does not matter whether one becomes a leader or a follower. We also establish that replacing a private firm by a public firm in the standard Bertrand-Edgeworth game with capacity constraints increases social welfare and that a pure-strategy equilibrium always exists

Non-singlet Baryons in Less Supersymmetric Backgrounds

We analyze the holographic description of non-singlet baryons in various backgrounds with reduced supersymmetries and/or confinement. We show that they exist in all AdS_5xY_5 backgrounds with Y_5 an Einstein manifold bearing five form flux, for a number of quarks 5N/8< k< N, independently on the supersymmetries preserved. This result still holds for gamma_i deformations. In the confining Maldacena-Nunez background non-singlet baryons also exist, although in this case the interval for the number of quarks is reduced as compared to the conformal case. We generalize these configurations to include a non-vanishing magnetic flux such that a complementary microscopical description can be given in terms of lower dimensional branes expanding into fuzzy baryons. This description is a first step towards exploring the finite 't Hooft coupling region.Comment: 36 Pages, 1 figure, Latex, v2: few minor changes, JHEP versio

Rings in the Solar System: a short review

Rings are ubiquitous around giant planets in our Solar System. They evolve jointly with the nearby satellite system. They could form either during the giant planet formation process or much later, as a result of large scale dynamical instabilities either in the local satellite system, or at the planetary scale. We review here the main characteristics of rings in our solar system, and discuss their main evolution processes and possible origin. We also discuss the recent discovery of rings around small bodies.Comment: Accepted for the Handbook of Exoplanet

An Intact Kidney Slice Model to Investigate Vasa Recta Properties and Function in situ

Background: Medullary blood flow is via vasa recta capillaries, which possess contractile pericytes. In vitro studies using isolated descending vasa recta show that pericytes can constrict/dilate descending vasa recta when vasoactive substances are present. We describe a live kidney slice model in which pericyte-mediated vasa recta constriction/dilation can be visualized in situ. Methods: Confocal microscopy was used to image calcein, propidium iodide and Hoechst labelling in ‘live’ kidney slices, to determine tubular and vascular cell viability and morphology. DIC video-imaging of live kidney slices was employed to investigate pericyte-mediated real-time changes in vasa recta diameter. Results: Pericytes were identified on vasa recta and their morphology and density were characterized in the medulla. Pericyte-mediated changes in vasa recta diameter (10–30%) were evoked in response to bath application of vasoactive agents (norepinephrine, endothelin-1, angiotensin-II and prostaglandin E2) or by manipulating endogenous vasoactive signalling pathways (using tyramine, L-NAME, a cyclo-oxygenase (COX-1) inhibitor indomethacin, and ATP release). Conclusions: The live kidney slice model is a valid complementary technique for investigating vasa recta function in situ and the role of pericytes as regulators of vasa recta diameter. This technique may also be useful in exploring the role of tubulovascular crosstalk in regulation of medullary blood flow

A prospective study to evaluate the accuracy of pulse power analysis to monitor cardiac output in critically ill patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intermittent measurement of cardiac output may be performed using a lithium dilution technique (LiDCO). This can then be used to calibrate a pulse power algorithm of the arterial waveform which provides a continuous estimate of this variable. The purpose of this study was to examine the duration of accuracy of the pulse power algorithm in critically ill patients with respect to time when compared to measurements of cardiac output by an independent technique.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Pulse power analysis was performed on critically ill patients using a proprietary commercial monitor (PulseCO). All measurements were made using an in-dwelling radial artery line and according to manufacturers instructions. Intermittent measurements of cardiac output were made with LiDCO in order to validate the pulse power measurements. These were made at baseline and then following 1, 2, 4 and 8 hours. The LiDCO measurement was considered the reference for comparison in this study. The two methods of measuring cardiac output were then compared by linear regression and a Bland Altman analysis. An error rate for the limits of agreement (LOA) between the two techniques of less than 30% was defined as being acceptable for this study.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>14 critically ill medical and surgical patients were enrolled over a three month period. At baseline patients showed a wide range of cardiac output (median 7.5 L/min, IQR 5.1 -9.0 L/min). The bias and limits of agreement between the two techniques was deemed acceptable for the first four hours of the study with percentage errors being 29%, 22%, and 285 respectively. The percentage error at eight hours following calibration increased to 36%. The ability of the PulseCo to detect changes in cardiac output was assessed with a similar analysis. The PulseCO tracked the changes in cardiac output with adequate accuracy for the first four hours with percentage errors being 20%, 24% and 25%. However at eight hours the error had increased to 43%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The agreement between lithium dilution cardiac output and the pulse power algorithm in the PulseCO monitor remains acceptable for up to four hours in critically ill patients.</p

Classical kinetic energy, quantum fluctuation terms and kinetic-energy functionals

We employ a recently formulated dequantization procedure to obtain an exact expression for the kinetic energy which is applicable to all kinetic-energy functionals. We express the kinetic energy of an N-electron system as the sum of an N-electron classical kinetic energy and an N-electron purely quantum kinetic energy arising from the quantum fluctuations that turn the classical momentum into the quantum momentum. This leads to an interesting analogy with Nelson's stochastic approach to quantum mechanics, which we use to conceptually clarify the physical nature of part of the kinetic-energy functional in terms of statistical fluctuations and in direct correspondence with Fisher Information Theory. We show that the N-electron purely quantum kinetic energy can be written as the sum of the (one-electron) Weizsacker term and an (N-1)-electron kinetic correlation term. We further show that the Weizsacker term results from local fluctuations while the kinetic correlation term results from the nonlocal fluctuations. For one-electron orbitals (where kinetic correlation is neglected) we obtain an exact (albeit impractical) expression for the noninteracting kinetic energy as the sum of the classical kinetic energy and the Weizsacker term. The classical kinetic energy is seen to be explicitly dependent on the electron phase and this has implications for the development of accurate orbital-free kinetic-energy functionals. Also, there is a direct connection between the classical kinetic energy and the angular momentum and, across a row of the periodic table, the classical kinetic energy component of the noninteracting kinetic energy generally increases as Z increases.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure. To appear in Theor Chem Ac