Staff unavailability and safe staffing: Are headroom allowances 'realistic'?

Background “Hours per patient day” (HPPD) is an internationally recognised resourcing metric used to measure direct nursing care hours. However, hospitals often under-estimate indirect time (unavailability) and specify unrealistic targets for planned unavailability (“headroom”). Aims To investigate the disparities between planned unavailability (“headroom”) and actual staff unavailability. Methods Data were collected from the e-rostering systems of 87 NHS Trusts. This was compared with published data from 35 roster policies. Results Many hospitals use headroom as a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) and set targets for its components in their roster policies. This research highlights large variations in unavailability (15.8% to 33.6%) and lower variations in headroom (16-26%). Conclusions Hospitals operationalise headroom around an idealised ‘target’ value. This may be detrimental. Compelling a unit with unavailability between 28-30%, to adopt an institution-wide headroom of, say, 22% may, at best, increase spending on bank/agency staff, or, at worse, jeopardise patient safety

Total knee arthroplasty: good agreement of clinical severity scores between patients and consultants

BACKGROUND: Nearly 20,000 patients per year in the UK receive total knee arthroplasty (TKA). One of the problems faced by the health services of many developed countries is the length of time patients spend waiting for elective treatment. We therefore report the results of a study in which the Salisbury Priority Scoring System (SPSS) was used by both the surgeon and their patients to ascertain whether there were differences between the surgeon generated and patient generated Salisbury Priority Scores. METHODS: The Salisbury Priority Scoring System (SPSS) was used to assign relative priority to patients with knee osteoarthritis as part of a randomised controlled trial comparing the standard medial parapatellar approach versus the sub-vastus approach in TKA. The operating surgeons and each patient completed the SPSS at the same pre-assessment clinic. The SPSS assesses four criteria, namely progression of disease, pain or distress, disability or dependence on others, and loss of usual occupation. Crosstabs and agreement measures (Cohen's kappa) were performed. RESULTS: Overall, the four SPSS criteria showed a kappa value of 0.526, 0.796, 0.813, and 0.820, respectively, showing moderate to very good agreement between the patient and the operating consultant. Male patients showed better agreement than female patients. CONCLUSION: The Salisbury Priority Scoring System is a good means of assessing patients' needs in relation to elective surgery, with high agreement between the patient and the operating surgeon

Species Differentiation on a Dynamic Landscape: Shifts in Metapopulation Genetic Structure Using the Chronology of the Hawaiian Archipelago

Species formation during adaptive radiation often occurs in the context of a changing environment. The establishment and arrangement of populations, in space and time, sets up ecological and genetic processes that dictate the rate and pattern of differentiation. Here, we focus on how a dynamic habitat can affect genetic structure, and ultimately, differentiation among populations. We make use of the chronology and geographical history provided by the Hawaiian archipelago to examine the initial stages of population establishment and genetic divergence. We use data from a set of 6 spider lineages that differ in habitat affinities, some preferring low elevation habitats with a longer history of connection, others being more specialized for high elevation and/or wet forest, some with more general habitat affinities. We show that habitat preferences associated with lineages are important in ecological and genetic structuring. Lineages that have more restricted habitat preferences are subject to repeated episodes of isolation and fragmentation as a result of lava flows and vegetation succession. The initial dynamic set up by the landscape translates over time into discrete lineages. Further work is needed to understand how genetic changes interact with a changing set of ecological interactions amongst a shifting mosaic of landscapes to achieve species formation

Epidemiology of Doublet/Multiplet Mutations in Lung Cancers: Evidence that a Subset Arises by Chronocoordinate Events

BACKGROUND: Evidence strongly suggests that spontaneous doublet mutations in normal mouse tissues generally arise from chronocoordinate events. These chronocoordinate mutations sometimes reflect "mutation showers", which are multiple chronocoordinate mutations spanning many kilobases. However, little is known about mutagenesis of doublet and multiplet mutations (domuplets) in human cancer. Lung cancer accounts for about 25% of all cancer deaths. Herein, we analyze the epidemiology of domuplets in the EGFR and TP53 genes in lung cancer. The EGFR gene is an oncogene in which doublets are generally driver plus driver mutations, while the TP53 gene is a tumor suppressor gene with a more typical situation in which doublets derive from a driver and passenger mutation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: EGFR mutations identified by sequencing were collected from 66 published papers and our updated EGFR mutation database (www.egfr.org). TP53 mutations were collected from IARC version 12 (www-p53.iarc.fr). For EGFR and TP53 doublets, no clearly significant differences in race, ethnicity, gender and smoking status were observed. Doublets in the EGFR and TP53 genes in human lung cancer are elevated about eight- and three-fold, respectively, relative to spontaneous doublets in mouse (6% and 2.3% versus 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although no one characteristic is definitive, the aggregate properties of doublet and multiplet mutations in lung cancer are consistent with a subset derived from chronocoordinate events in the EGFR gene: i) the eight frameshift doublets (present in 0.5% of all patients with EGFR mutations) are clustered and produce a net in-frame change; ii) about 32% of doublets are very closely spaced (< or =30 nt); and iii) multiplets contain two or more closely spaced mutations. TP53 mutations in lung cancer are very closely spaced (< or =30 nt) in 33% of doublets, and multiplets generally contain two or more very closely spaced mutations. Work in model systems is necessary to confirm the significance of chronocoordinate events in lung and other cancers

Prioritising surveillance for alien organisms transported as stowaways on ships travelling to South Africa

The global shipping network facilitates the transportation and introduction of marine and terrestrial organisms to regions where they are not native, and some of these organisms become invasive. South Africa was used as a case study to evaluate the potential for shipping to contribute to the introduction and establishment of marine and terrestrial alien species (i.e. establishment debt) and to assess how this varies across shipping routes and seasons. As a proxy for the number of species introduced (i.e. 'colonisation pressure') shipping movement data were used to determine, for each season, the number of ships that visited South African ports from foreign ports and the number of days travelled between ports. Seasonal marine and terrestrial environmental similarity between South African and foreign ports was then used to estimate the likelihood that introduced species would establish. These data were used to determine the seasonal relative contribution of shipping routes to South Africa's marine and terrestrial establishment debt. Additionally, distribution data were used to identify marine and terrestrial species that are known to be invasive elsewhere and which might be introduced to each South African port through shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to establishment debt. Shipping routes from Asian ports, especially Singapore, have a particularly high relative contribution to South Africa's establishment debt, while among South African ports, Durban has the highest risk of being invaded. There was seasonal variation in the shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to the establishment debt of the South African ports. The presented method provides a simple way to prioritise surveillance effort and our results indicate that, for South Africa, port-specific prevention strategies should be developed, a large portion of the available resources should be allocated to Durban, and seasonal variations and their consequences for prevention strategies should be explored further. (Résumé d'auteur

Immune-Complex Mimics as a Molecular Platform for Adjuvant-Free Vaccine Delivery

Protein-based vaccine development faces the difficult challenge of finding robust yet non-toxic adjuvants suitable for humans. Here, using a molecular engineering approach, we have developed a molecular platform for generating self-adjuvanting immunogens that do not depend on exogenous adjuvants for induction of immune responses. These are based on the concept of Immune Complex Mimics (ICM), structures that are formed between an oligomeric antigen and a monoclonal antibody (mAb) to that antigen. In this way, the roles of antigens and antibodies within the structure of immune complexes are reversed, so that a single monoclonal antibody, rather than polyclonal sera or expensive mAb cocktails can be used. We tested this approach in the context of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) infection by linking the highly immunogenic and potentially protective Ag85B with the oligomeric Acr (alpha crystallin, HspX) antigen. When combined with an anti-Acr monoclonal antibody, the fusion protein formed ICM which bound to C1q component of the complement system and were readily taken up by antigen-presenting cells in vitro. ICM induced a strong Th1/Th2 mixed type antibody response, which was comparable to cholera toxin adjuvanted antigen, but only moderate levels of T cell proliferation and IFN-γ secretion. Unfortunately, the systemic administration of ICM did not confer statistically significant protection against intranasal MTB challenge, although a small BCG-boosting effect was observed. We conclude that ICM are capable of inducing strong humoral responses to incorporated antigens and may be a suitable vaccination approach for pathogens other than MTB, where antibody-based immunity may play a more protective role

Implementation of corticosteroids in treatment of COVID-19 in the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone was the first intervention proven to reduce mortality in patients with COVID-19 being treated in hospital. We aimed to evaluate the adoption of corticosteroids in the treatment of COVID-19 in the UK after the RECOVERY trial publication on June 16, 2020, and to identify discrepancies in care. METHODS: We did an audit of clinical implementation of corticosteroids in a prospective, observational, cohort study in 237 UK acute care hospitals between March 16, 2020, and April 14, 2021, restricted to patients aged 18 years or older with proven or high likelihood of COVID-19, who received supplementary oxygen. The primary outcome was administration of dexamethasone, prednisolone, hydrocortisone, or methylprednisolone. This study is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between June 17, 2020, and April 14, 2021, 47 795 (75·2%) of 63 525 of patients on supplementary oxygen received corticosteroids, higher among patients requiring critical care than in those who received ward care (11 185 [86·6%] of 12 909 vs 36 415 [72·4%] of 50 278). Patients 50 years or older were significantly less likely to receive corticosteroids than those younger than 50 years (adjusted odds ratio 0·79 [95% CI 0·70-0·89], p=0·0001, for 70-79 years; 0·52 [0·46-0·58], p80 years), independent of patient demographics and illness severity. 84 (54·2%) of 155 pregnant women received corticosteroids. Rates of corticosteroid administration increased from 27·5% in the week before June 16, 2020, to 75-80% in January, 2021. INTERPRETATION: Implementation of corticosteroids into clinical practice in the UK for patients with COVID-19 has been successful, but not universal. Patients older than 70 years, independent of illness severity, chronic neurological disease, and dementia, were less likely to receive corticosteroids than those who were younger, as were pregnant women. This could reflect appropriate clinical decision making, but the possibility of inequitable access to life-saving care should be considered. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research and UK Medical Research Council

An Agent-Based Model to study the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza viruses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Influenza A viruses exhibit complex epidemiological patterns in a number of mammalian and avian hosts. Understanding transmission of these viruses necessitates taking into account their evolution, which represents a challenge for developing mathematical models. This is because the phrasing of multi-strain systems in terms of traditional compartmental ODE models either requires simplifying assumptions to be made that overlook important evolutionary processes, or leads to complex dynamical systems that are too cumbersome to analyse.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Here, we develop an Individual-Based Model (IBM) in order to address simultaneously the ecology, epidemiology and evolution of strain-polymorphic pathogens, using Influenza A viruses as an illustrative example.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We carry out careful validation of our IBM against comparable mathematical models to demonstrate the robustness of our algorithm and the sound basis for this novel framework. We discuss how this new approach can give critical insights in the study of influenza evolution.</p

Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in the risk of mortality per 7-week period (odds ratio [OR] 0·68 [95% CI 0·65-0·71]). The higher proportions of patients with severe disease and comorbidities earlier in the first wave (March and April) than in June and July accounted for 10·2% of this reduction. The use of respiratory support changed during the first wave, with gradually increased use of non-invasive ventilation over the first wave. Changes in respiratory support and use of steroids accounted for 22·2%, OR 0·95 (0·94-0·95) of the reduction in in-hospital mortality. INTERPRETATION: The reduction in in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 during the first wave in the UK was partly accounted for by changes in the case-mix and illness severity. A significant reduction in in-hospital mortality was associated with differences in respiratory support and critical care use, which could partly reflect accrual of clinical knowledge. The remaining improvement in in-hospital mortality is not explained by these factors, and could be associated with changes in community behaviour, inoculum dose, and hospital capacity strain. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the Medical Research Council

Normal Mouse Intestinal Epithelial Cells as a Model for the in vitro Invasion of Trichinella spiralis Infective Larvae

It has been known for many years that Trichinella spiralis initiates infection by penetrating the columnar epithelium of the small intestine; however, the mechanisms used by the parasite in the establishment of its intramulticellular niche in the intestine are unknown. Although the previous observations indicated that invasion also occurs in vitro when the infective larvae are inoculated onto cultures of intestinal epithelial cells (e.g., human colonic carcinoma cell line Caco-2, HCT-8), a normal readily manipulated in vitro model has not been established because of difficulties in the culture of primary intestinal epithelial cells (IECs). In this study, we described a normal intestinal epithelial model in which T. spiralis infective larvae were shown to invade the monolayers of normal mouse IECs in vitro. The IECs derived from intestinal crypts of fetal mouse small intestine had the ability to proliferate continuously and express specific cytokeratins as well as intestinal functional cell markers. Furthermore, they were susceptible to invasion by T. spiralis. When inoculated onto the IEC monolayer, infective larvae penetrated cells and migrated through them, leaving trails of damaged cells heavily loaded with T. spiralis larval excretory-secretory (ES) antigens which were recognized by rabbit immune sera on immunofluorescence test. The normal intestinal epithelial model of invasion mimicking the natural environment in vivo will help us to further investigate the process as well as the mechanisms by which T. spiralis establishes its intestinal niche