Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data

Background:Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.Methods and Findings:Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone.The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000-380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000-180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%-31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.Conclusions:With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21–9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given, but no ice sheet or iceberg meltwater should be prescribed in the Core simulation. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will focus on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part

Characteristic Evolution and Matching

I review the development of numerical evolution codes for general relativity based upon the characteristic initial value problem. Progress in characteristic evolution is traced from the early stage of 1D feasibility studies to 2D axisymmetric codes that accurately simulate the oscillations and gravitational collapse of relativistic stars and to current 3D codes that provide pieces of a binary black hole spacetime. Cauchy codes have now been successful at simulating all aspects of the binary black hole problem inside an artificially constructed outer boundary. A prime application of characteristic evolution is to extend such simulations to null infinity where the waveform from the binary inspiral and merger can be unambiguously computed. This has now been accomplished by Cauchy-characteristic extraction, where data for the characteristic evolution is supplied by Cauchy data on an extraction worldtube inside the artificial outer boundary. The ultimate application of characteristic evolution is to eliminate the role of this outer boundary by constructing a global solution via Cauchy-characteristic matching. Progress in this direction is discussed.Comment: New version to appear in Living Reviews 2012. arXiv admin note: updated version of arXiv:gr-qc/050809

Biospecimen Reporting for Improved Study Quality

Human biospecimens are subject to a number of different collection, processing, and storage factors that can significantly alter their molecular composition and consistency. These biospecimen preanalytical factors, in turn, influence experimental outcomes and the ability to reproduce scientific results. Currently, the extent and type of information specific to the biospecimen preanalytical conditions reported in scientific publications and regulatory submissions varies widely. To improve the quality of research utilizing human tissues, it is critical that information regarding the handling of biospecimens be reported in a thorough, accurate, and standardized manner. The Biospecimen Reporting for Improved Study Quality recommendations outlined herein are intended to apply to any study in which human biospecimens are used. The purpose of reporting these details is to supply others, from researchers to regulators, with more consistent and standardized information to better evaluate, interpret, compare, and reproduce the experimental results. The Biospecimen Reporting for Improved Study Quality guidelines are proposed as an important and timely resource tool to strengthen communication and publications around biospecimen-related research and help reassure patient contributors and the advocacy community that the contributions are valued and respected.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90474/1/bio-2E2010-2E0036.pd

Homotypic and heterotypic psychopathological continuity: a child cohort study

Background: Heterotypic psychopathological continuity (i.e. one disorder predicting another at a later time point) contradicts the conventional view that psychiatric disorders are discrete, static entities. Studying this phenomenon may help to tease out the complex mechanisms that underpin psychiatric comorbidity. To date, no studies have explicitly compared heterotypic effects within and across higher order dimensions of psychopathology. // Methods: Patterns of homotypic and heterotypic psychopathological continuity were examined using cohort data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC, N = 4815). Eight common psychiatric disorders were assessed at age 7.5 and again at age 14 years using the maternal report version of the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA). Cross-lagged models were used to compare patterns of homotypic and heterotypic continuity within and across three higher order dimensions of psychopathology; internalizing-fear, internalizing-distress, and externalizing. // Results: Homotypic continuity was universal. Considerable heterotypic continuity was observed even after controlling for homotypic continuity and the presence of all disorders at baseline. Heterotypic continuity was more common within higher order dimensions, but a number of significant cross-dimension effects were observed, with ADHD acting as a strong predictor of subsequent internalizing disorders. // Conclusions: Heterotypic continuity may reflect elements of shared aetiology, or local-level interactions between disorders

An Ecological Momentary Assessment of Lapse Occurrences in Dieters

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the factors related to dietary lapse occurrence in a community sample of dieters. Methods: An ecological momentary assessment (EMA) methodology, via mobile phone-based diaries, was employed to record dietary lapse occurrences in a group of dieters (N = 80; M age  = 41.21 ± 15.60 years; M BMI = 30.78 ± 7.26) over 7 days. Results: Analyses indicated that lapses were positively associated with the strength of dietary temptation, presence of others, coping responses, and the environment (exposure to food cues) in which the dieters were in; lapses were more likely to occur in the evening and were negatively associated with the use of coping mechanisms. Additionally, lapse occurrence was found to mediate the relationships among the above predictors of lapse and the self-efficacy to resist future dietary temptations. Conclusions: Results provide an insight into the occurrence of lapses in dieters and have implications for interventions focusing on weight loss maintenance and relapse prevention

Surveillance of FAP: a prospective blinded comparison of capsule endoscopy and other GI imaging to detect small bowel polyps

Background: Familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) is a hereditary disorder characterized by polyposis along the gastrointestinal tract. Information on adenoma status below the duodenum has previously been restricted due to its inaccessibility in vivo. Ca

Primary care nurses struggle with lifestyle counseling in diabetes care: a qualitative analysis

Contains fulltext : 89605.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Patient outcomes are poorly affected by lifestyle advice in general practice. Promoting lifestyle behavior change require that nurses shift from simple advice giving to a more counseling-based approach. The current study examines which barriers nurses encounter in lifestyle counseling to patients with type 2 diabetes. Based on this information we will develop an implementation strategy to improve lifestyle behavior change in general practice. METHOD: In a qualitative semi-structured study, twelve in-depth interviews took place with nurses in Dutch general practices involved in diabetes care. Specific barriers in counseling patients with type 2 diabetes about diet, physical activity, and smoking cessation were addressed. The nurses were invited to reflect on barriers at the patient and practice levels, but mainly on their own roles as counselors. All interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed. The data were analyzed with the aid of a predetermined framework. RESULTS: Nurses felt most barriers on the level of the patient; patients had limited knowledge of a healthy lifestyle and limited insight into their own behavior, and they lacked the motivation to modify their lifestyles or the discipline to maintain an improved lifestyle. Furthermore, nurses reported lack of counseling skills and insufficient time as barriers in effective lifestyle counseling. CONCLUSIONS: The traditional health education approach is still predominant in primary care of patients with type 2 diabetes. An implementation strategy based on motivational interviewing can help to overcome 'jumping ahead of the patient' and promotes skills in lifestyle behavioral change. We will train our nurses in agenda setting to structure the consultation based on prioritizing the behavior change and will help them to develop social maps that contain information on local exercise programs